revolutionary tools.  groundbreaking articles.  proven results.

Targets Are Like Pouring Gasoline on the Flame of Talent

Earlier today I posted perhaps an unneeded Michael Floyd article where I posited that even though I’m not targeting Floyd now, I’m paying attention to see if the conditions might materialize for Floyd to become a value. I offered a sensitivity table in that article which had some hypothetical fantasy point totals based on varying numbers of targets. As I was doing that I realized that it’s kind of helpful to be able to translate targets into a fantasy positional finish. For instance, here’s a graph I made where I plotted targets versus WR finish for the 2013 and 2014 seasons.


You can see that getting up over the 145 number in targets will also mean about a WR12 finish. I think it’s important to keep that trend in mind as we think about 2015 because usage is the immovable object in fantasy football. It’s true that crazy seasons like Jordy Nelson’s 96 target/15 TD season can happen. And the flip side can also happen as Andre Johnson rolled up 146 targets and not very many fantasy points in 2014. But you’re better off counting on your player landing somewhere around league average in efficiency, than you are planning for him to wildly exceed league average in efficiency. That’s why the targets are so important.

Below is a table I made where I took the trend line from above and calculated the positional finish at WR for various target numbers. It’s important to think about as we really bear down and try to figure out who this year’s league winners will be. Can you really tell yourself a story about your guy getting into the 130 target range? That’s probably about what’s needed for a WR that you draft in the WR30-WR40 range to really make a noticeable difference on your roster. You want every player to exceed draft cost, but not every draft pick you make will actually do that. But if you draft a player at WR30+ and they can make it up into the WR18 or higher range then you’ve made a real profit.

Targets  PosRank
80        39.9
85        38.4
90        37.0
95        35.6
100        33.9
105        32.1
110        30.1
115        27.79
120        24.2
125        20.7
130        18.0
135        15.6
140        13.6
145        11.9
150        10.3
155          8.8
160          7.6
165          6.5
170          5.7
175          5.0
180          4.5
185          4.2
190          4.0
195          4.0
200          4.2

recent and related...

in case you missed it...

Week 7 Waiver Wire Advice: Top Targets At Each Position

Looking for Week 7 waiver wire advice for fantasy football? You’ve come to the right place. We’ll give you some of the top targets at each position so that when you submit a waiver claim, you do it with confidence. This article will run through the top players available in

Read More

High Staked: Notes from Week 6

Veteran high stakes fantasy football player Monty Phan chronicles his season. I’m taking the easy way out this week: notes from a full Sunday of NFL football, which, for me, started at around 8 a.m., because 6:30 a.m. is way too early to get up on a Sunday:1 To how

Read More

Dumpster Dives: Deep Waiver Pickups for Week 7

Waiver Wire Dumpster Dives takes you beyond the obvious plays and helps you find undervalued gems for deep leagues. Bye weeks are creeping up and as that happens weekly fill-ins are becoming more and more important.  With high fantasy capital teams like the Panthers, Browns, Steelers and Buccaneers all on

Read More

Wide Receiver Target Report: Week 6

Week 6 saw the 2019 Stefon Diggs coming out party, as the Vikings wide receiver torched the Eagles secondary to the tune of seven receptions, 167 yards, and three touchdowns. The 43.5 PPR points he scored on Sunday more than doubled his entire 2019 production. Tyreek Hill also made his

Read More

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.