NASCAR DFS Picks, Projections for Las Vegas

NASCAR DFS Picks

NASCAR kicks off the 2018 playoffs in Las Vegas for 400 miles at the 1.5-mile track. I’ll give you my top NASCAR DFS picks, along with my driver point and ownership projections. Also, the NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup OptimizerSim Scores, and Splits apps are updated for your NASCAR DFS needs.

I’ll record RotoViz Live at 11pm ET/8pm PT, so be sure to get your questions to me on Twitter using #RVLive.

For betting insights into the race, be sure to check out my piece at The Action Network. In that article, I’ll highlight my favorite NASCAR bets for Las Vegas.

If you’re new to daily fantasy NASCAR, or simply need a refresher, check out the large oval section of my track types article. Brush up on your general GPP strategy and game theory if you want to have a shot at taking down first place. If you’re more of a cash game player, check out how to target high floor drivers, and remember to find any potential race dominators.

Let’s get to the NASCAR DFS picks, strategy, rankings, and projections for Las Vegas!

NASCAR DFS MODEL PROJECTIONS FOR LAS VEGAS

The model projections assume that the driver finishes the race – hence why you don’t see any average finishing positions worse than about 30th. The Pts column shows the average projected DraftKings points for races when the driver finishes the race.

Note: Ownership projections will be added later Saturday evening.

DriverStartFinishLLFLPtsSalOwn
Erik Jones18.9230.5815.1642.39870048.2%
Joey Logano29.858.7712.1834.58880023.1%
Denny Hamlin39.712.148.1534.711040013.4%
Kyle Busch46.7840.423.0456.071230018.7%
Kevin Harvick56.0744.8123.4159.771170029.2%
Ryan Blaney67.527.5923.7953.8920026.1%
Chase Elliott74.927.211.0648.49940014.7%
Kurt Busch88.356.586.4240.16850013.9%
Alex Bowman910.622.027.5736.04770018.3%
Martin Truex Jr104.243.0926.5969.67990040.3%
Kyle Larson117.5728.3217.3455.611070024.0%
Jamie McMurray1214.310.121.928.35790010.5%
Brad Keselowski138.795.1811.446.4960017.7%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1415.560.611.7627.9171007.8%
Clint Bowyer159.614.274.8643.29900033.2%
Aric Almirola167.613.637.4249.4810035.5%
Jimmie Johnson1716.290.256.731.83830019.4%
Austin Dillon1819.610.091.1923.467009.8%
Daniel Suarez1914.350.161.5835.14800014.1%
Paul Menard2017.920.082.4129.39740010.0%
William Byron2118.630.21.5728.59730015.5%
Ryan Newman2217.990.161.6730.9760014.8%
Trevor Bayne2323.010.131.0521.5564009.1%
Michael McDowell2421.850.291.3525.0461009.7%
Regan Smith2525.210.030.8419.0155009.4%
Matt DiBenedetto2625.90.070.9718.754007.5%
David Ragan2723.0600.5725.1659009.2%
Chris Buescher2821.590.120.9529.33690013.4%
AJ Allmendinger2922.690.041.1928.21620012.7%
Ty Dillon3024.60.050.5525.08650010.0%
Bubba Wallace3123.050.020.7329.28570034.3%
Corey Lajoie3228.8100.1218.4451003.3%
Kyle Weatherman3330.2300.1416.6148003.1%
Ross Chastain3428.3700.1221.3253003.8%
Jeffrey Earnhardt3528.5200.1922.0549004.9%
JJ Yeley3629.4300.421.3547002.5%
Landon Cassill3729.7900.1521.552003.0%
BJ McLeod3830.7900.1620.546001.9%
Timmy Hill3930.7900.1321.4845002.0%
Reed Sorenson4030.7800.1922.5450002.1%

Now on to the NASCAR DFS picks for Sunday!

NASCAR DFS PICKS – CASH GAMES

Martin Truex Jr. ($9900) — This price tag on Truex makes absolutely no sense given he’s won six of the past 13 1.5-mile races. Truex only qualified 10th, which gives him place differential potential, and he was near the top of the speed charts in both practice sessions over the long run. He appears to have the best car among the big three, but is priced $1800 and $2400 cheaper than Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch respectively.

Erik Jones ($8700) — Jones starts on the pole, and has shown blistering pace in both post-qualifying practice sessions. He was top of the charts in 10-lap average in practice 2 and practice 3. Look for him to grab the early laps led, as he controls the initial start. The other car on the front row, Joey Logano, didn’t show as much speed, placing only 12th in 10-lap average in final practice, and didn’t crack the top 10 in overall average speed.

Aric Almirola ($8100) — Almirola stands out as one of the top plays by my model, with a projected average finish of 7.6. At only $8100, he’s a steal in price as well. Almirola was fifth quickest over 10-consecutive laps in final practice, and starts 16th, giving him plenty of place differential potential. He got slowed down by traffic in his final run, which is why he doesn’t show up in the top 10 in overall average speed.

NASCAR DFS PICKS – GPPS 

Ryan Blaney ($9200) — Vegas is one of Blaney’s best tracks, and it looks like the trend will continue based off his practice times. Blaney was fourth in 10-lap average, and sixth in overall speed in final practice (fifth if we remove Trevor Bayne‘s outlying time). I like considering him as a contrarian dominator.

Clint Bowyer ($9000) — Bowyer was fast in final practice, posting the third-best overall speed in final practice. If people rely too much on the 10-lap average, they might be off Bowyer more than they should. He, like teammate Almirola, got held up in traffic at times in final practice, which didn’t allow him to post 10-consecutive clean laps.

Jimmie Johnson ($8300) — A bit of a flier here, but I think Johnson goes low owned based off his 10-lap average and general attitude toward him by DFS players this year. However, Johnson posted the fastest 10-lap average in final practice among those that made their run later in practice, and also showed up inside the top 10 in overall average speed in final practice. He starts 17th, so there’s place differential available to him at a good price. He fits in really well in a balanced lineup.

Bubba Wallace ($5700) — If you’re looking for a cheap play, it’s Bubba. He starts 31st, but was faster in practice than plenty of cars starting in front of him, including David RaganA.J. AllmendingerTy DillonMatt DiBenedettoMichael McDowell, and Regan Smith. I like using him in a lineup with someone like Kevin Harvick, who projects to be the second-best of the big three, and could lead plenty of laps depending on how the race shakes out.

NASCAR DFS VEGAS FADES

Denny Hamlin ($10,400) — His price tag makes no sense, and he’s unlikely to dominate (six drivers projected as more likely to dominate by the model). When starting from third, that’s a bad situation for Hamlin for DFS purposes.