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Week 4 Waiver Wire Advice

RotoViz provides advice on players to target and fade on your fantasy football waiver wire.

General Thoughts

  • Prioritizing players – I’ll present players in the order I would prioritize adding them. That means I’ll be recommending players that I think have the best opportunity to make a significant and lasting contribution to your fantasy team.
  • My advice will be focused on single-quarterback, PPR formats.
  • My advice will also skew towards redraft leagues, although it should also be very actionable in dynasty leagues, particularly if you’re trying to win this year. I’ll often provide both redraft and dynasty angles.
  • I won’t offer specific advice about how much of your Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) you should spend. I’ll talk in general terms, but realistically, how much FAAB you should spend on a given player is an extremely league-specific question. It’s like asking “How much should I spend on groceries?” In order to give a specific answer, I’d need to know how big your family is, what ages are your kids, what part of the country do you live in, what are your health and wellness goals, and much more. And the answer I give you wouldn’t help another reader very much.
  • Here’s what I can do, however. I can encourage you to put specific questions on the Message Boards. I’ll try to chime in on as many questions as I can, and other writers (not to mention our community of well-informed readers) will jump in as well.
  • I’ll also encourage you to make use of our Apps. Our in season apps will help you identify teams with great upcoming schedules, as well as insight into player-specific match ups.

Week 4 Waiver Wire Advice

I’ll include a table below that you can do some of your own research. I’ll present players by positional tiers, from most desirable to acquire (1) to least (3). Availability in ESPN leagues is shown in parentheses.

Quarterbacks – Tier 1

If you need a quarterback, I’d bid a modest amount on either of these guys.

Andy Dalton (71.4%). According to the Fantasy Streaming App, Dalton’s next three games are all neutral matchups, so there’s no big reason to fade Dalton. Through three weeks, Dalton has the fifth-most passing expected points in the NFL.

Ryan Tannehill (92.2%). He’s averaging 10 adjusted yards per attempt (AYA), third-best in the league. That probably won’t continue, but he does have three favorable matchups in a row (New England, Cincinnati, Chicago) to help him. He’s also averaging 25 yards rushing per game.

Quarterbacks – Tier 2

Baker Mayfield (93.2%). I like Mayfield in the long term, but in the short term, I’m not targeting him. He’s a rookie going into his second game, with modest weapons and a dubious coaching staff. He’s also got neutral or negative fantasy matchups over the next three weeks.

Josh Allen (98%). He’s been starting longer (such as it is) than Mayfield or Rosen, but his matchups over the next few weeks look tough.

Josh Rosen (98%). Please don’t be this desperate. I like him long term too, but Seattle, San Francisco, and Minnesota is a tough set of fantasy matchups to start his career.

Running Backs – Tier 1

Because of the number of names available and no clear cut must-target players, I think a modest bid should land either of these guys.

Aaron Jones (48.7%). Jones had a similar number of rushing attempts as Jamaal Williams but did more with them. Ty Montgomery got a lot of receiving game work, so this is a muddled situation. But Jones showed promise last year and his immediate involvement in Week 3 was a good sign. Oh – it’s also nice to have a piece of an Aaron Rodgers offense. The next three games (Buffalo, Detroit, San Francisco) are all very favorable for fantasy running backs.

Alfred Morris (41.6%). The numbers haven’t been that impressive but like Jones, he gets three great matchups in a row (LA Chargers, Arizona, Green Bay). Morris is also getting 49 percent of San Francisco’s rushing attempts and ranks seventh in rushing expected points. If he keeps the volume, the opportunities could be there.

Running Backs – Tier 2

These should all be available for small to moderate bids.

Chris Carson (29.1%). He’s not available in many leagues and Seattle’s offense isn’t great so far, but Carson’s workload (58 percent of rushing attempts, nine percent of targets) makes him a must-add if he is available.

Javorius Allen (60.7%)  Allen’s market share of rushing attempts trails Alex Collins by a lot. But not the value of those attempts. Collins (21 rushing expected points) has a scant lead on Allen (17.1). In the receiving game, Allen has a sizable advantage. And hey — he’s been efficient too! Expect Allen to continue having a valuable role.

Jalen Richard (95%). His next three games are all favorable fantasy matchups. There’s also this. 

It sure looks like Richard is the passing game back. A 17 percent target share is exceptional for a running back.

Bilal Powell (37.8%). Boring. But three solid matchups and a 10 percent target share make him a viable plugin.

Running Backs – Tier 3

These are all contingent on the health of the starter in front of them. Yeldon comes the closest to stand alone value, but I’d rather wait for first-come-first-serve waivers on these guys.

T.J. Yeldon (46.7%)

Chris Ivory (94.9%)

Nyhiem Hines (90.8%)

Corey Clement (35.1%)

Wendell Smallwood (95.8%)

download (7)

It’s just one game, but Smallwood played well. As long as Jay Ajayi returns, there’s nothing to see here. But if he or Darren Sproles miss time, I’d consider Smallwood as a cheaper target than Clement.

Tight Ends – Tier 1

The tight end position doesn’t demand large bids, so keep ’em small. I’d spend the most for Ebron.

Eric Ebron (44.7%). The return of Jack Doyle may make Ebron cheaper to pick up. Still, through three weeks, Ebron is fourth in tight end receiving expected points and seventh in market share of targets (17 percent). His upcoming schedule (Houston, New England, NY Jets) is also very tasty.

Will Dissly (51.8%). Dissly ranks 13th and 11th in TE receiving expected points and target share respectively, with still no sign of Doug Baldwin. Dissly also has three plus matchups forthcoming. He compares well to another TE who should be a popular waiver add. 

Jesse James (67.3%). He hasn’t played yet in Week 3, so I might regret this tomorrow. But James has been healthier than Vance McDonald and plays in an offense that can put up points, especially over the next three weeks (Baltimore, Atlanta, Cincinnati).

Tight Ends – Tier 2

Minimum or small bids should suffice here.

Ben Watson (70.8%). The Saints won’t score 43 points every week. Or will they? In any case, Watson has as many expected points as Jimmy Graham and Kyle Rudolph, so he’s on the streaming radar.

Tyler Eifert (54.1%). This is mostly based on his history as a TD scorer and the potential for A.J. Green to be limited next week.

Ricky Seals-Jones (90.4%). Three neutral matchups and a decent usage profile help his outlook.

Wide Receivers – Tier 1

If any of the top three are available, I’d make a sizable bid to acquire them.

Quincy Enunwa (33.5%). What’s not to like? My top add for the week if he’s available. First, he has three excellent fantasy matchups on the horizon (Jacksonville, Denver, Indianapolis). download (6)Second, his 32 percent market share is tied for fourth-best among all wide receivers, trailing only Jarvis Landry, Julio Jones, and Antonio Brown (tied with Adam Thielen). He’s got as many expected points as Stefon Diggs, Golden Tate, and Allen Robinson. Go get this guy!

Keelan Cole (32.1%) has three positive matchups and is the clear top WR in Jacksonville. Volume of opportunity might be a concern, but his role looks secure.

John Brown (52.1%) shouldn’t be on waivers. download (9)Brown’s market share is on the low end, but his workload has been valuable and he’s playing well. Once again, he’s got a great upcoming schedule (Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Tennessee).

Tyler Boyd (76.3%) has quietly been having a breakout campaign, averaging seven targets per game and doing well with them. A.J. Green’s injury might cause others to take note of Boyd, and his upcoming schedule is just neutral.

Wide Receivers – Tier 2download (10)

There are a lot of appealing names here so don’t overspend. I’d note that the efficiency numbers for some of these players are almost certain to decline. These guys are all worth a roster spot but keep your bids modest since you should be able to get at least one WR from this tier without much trouble.

Sterling Shepard (30.2%). Good upcoming schedule and maybe extra work if Engram is limited.

Tyler Lockett (30.9%). Should get steady usage in Baldwin’s absence.

Mike Williams (67%). Insane efficiency should come back to earth. Could see usage increases though as long as Tyrell Williams continues to underwhelm.

Jordy Nelson (33.9%). He had as many targets in Week 3 (8) as in the first two weeks combined. Still, it’s easy to see Oakland playing a lot of catch up.

Paul Richardson (66%). Richardson has a Week 4 bye, so you might get him for free. He’s got a couple of decent matchups after that. download (12)See if you can spot the inefficient wide receiver here. I think there’s a chance Richardson’s usage increases at the expense of Doctson as the season progresses.

Wide Receivers – Tier 3

I consider these to be minimum bid long shots that are worth adding in deep leagues.

Antonio Callaway (83.5%). He’s been remarkably inefficient, but perhaps that improves with Baker Mayfield. I’m passing for now. Who knows, maybe Rashard Higgins is the real target? download (13)Or maybe neither is, until Cleveland improves a bit more.

Calvin Ridley (59.2%). I’m personally skipping Calvin Ridley for now. His price likely goes up after an epic game, and Mohamed Sanu’s usage is holding steady, limiting Ridley for now.

Christian Kirk (93.8%). Kirk looks to be separating from Chad Williams but the usage isn’t quite there yet. There’s also a question about quarterback play.

Table

Sorted by availability and tier.

PLAYER, TEAMPOS% AVAILPOS TIER
Ryan Tannehill, MiaQB92.21
Tyler Boyd, CinWR76.31
Andy Dalton, CinQB71.41
Jesse James, PitTE67.31
John Brown, BalWR52.11
Will Dissly, SeaTE51.81
Aaron Jones, GBRB48.71
Eric Ebron, IndTE44.71
Alfred Morris, SFRB41.61
Quincy Enunwa, NYJWR33.51
Keelan Cole, JaxWR32.11
Josh Rosen, AriQB98.62
Josh Allen, BufQB982
Jalen Richard, OakRB952
Baker Mayfield, CleQB93.22
Ricky Seals-Jones, AriTE90.42
Benjamin Watson, NOTE70.82
Mike Williams, LACWR672
Paul Richardson, WshWR662
Javorius Allen, BalRB60.72
Tyler Eifert, CinTE54.12
Bilal Powell, NYJRB37.82
Jordy Nelson, OakWR33.92
Tyler Lockett, SeaWR30.92
Sterling Shepard, NYGWR30.22
Chris Carson, SeaRB29.12
Wendell Smallwood, PhiRB95.83
Chris Ivory, BufRB94.93
Christian Kirk, AriWR93.83
Nyheim Hines, IndRB90.83
Antonio Callaway, CleWR83.53
Calvin Ridley, AtlWR59.23
T.J. Yeldon, JaxRB46.73
Corey Clement, PhiRB35.13

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