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NASCAR DFS Picks, Projections for Dover

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series kicks off the second round of the playoffs at Dover International Speedway. As always, I’ll give you my top NASCAR DFS picks, along with my driver point and ownership projections. Also, the NASCAR DFS Multi-Lineup OptimizerSim Scores, and Splits apps are updated for your NASCAR DFS needs.

For betting insights into the race, be sure to check out my piece at The Action Network. In that article, I’ll highlight my favorite NASCAR bets for this weekend.

If you’re new to daily fantasy NASCAR, or simply need a refresher, check out the steep track section of my track types article. Brush up on your general GPP strategy and game theory if you want to have a shot at taking down first place. If you’re more of a cash game player, check out how to target high floor drivers, and remember to find any potential race dominators.

Let’s get to the NASCAR DFS picks, strategy, rankings, and projections for this weekend’s race!


The model projections assume that the driver finishes the race – hence why you don’t see any average finishing positions worse than about 33rd. The Pts column shows the average projected DraftKings points for races when the driver finishes the race.

Note: Ownership projections will be added later Saturday.

Kyle Busch17.828.5528.1550.611180016.1%
Kevin Harvick25.3471.0539.7372.951210044.0%
Martin Truex Jr38.1157.2236.4263.31150027.6%
Brad Keselowski48.5928.4821.2748.581070014.1%
Clint Bowyer59.0626.0714.0544.43930031.9%
Joey Logano610.6611.949.436.36890012.2%
Kurt Busch79.9519.5613.7442.87910014.9%
Ryan Blaney81214.8512.938.16850010.3%
Chase Elliott98.1925.9915.6250.92990013.0%
Kyle Larson107.3349.8830.9567.281020048.7%
Aric Almirola1112.522.997.5234.47830011.6%
Alex Bowman1214.990.954.1828.36730012.0%
Jimmie Johnson1310.0810.0520.549.6820022.8%
Austin Dillon1414.960.875.1930.89690011.8%
Denny Hamlin158.7417.1711.9751.79960015.7%
Erik Jones1610.986.648.3643.88870027.3%
Ryan Newman1714.420.584.334.4478008.7%
Paul Menard1815.190.393.8233.63770012.9%
Daniel Suarez1911.866.694.643.24800019.9%
Jamie McMurray2016.130.544.2834.02750010.6%
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2117.429.48.0136.51600043.4%
William Byron2218.381.475.0532.13670016.4%
Chris Buescher2321.580.051.8524.79630011.2%
AJ Allmendinger2422.540.412.824.43650011.0%
Regan Smith2520.110.242.6830.18620020.4%
David Ragan2622.820.072.0225.39550012.5%
Michael McDowell2724.120.451.9923.8656009.5%
Matt Kenseth2819.476.497.838.58710026.4%
Bubba Wallace2923.330.11.6127.18590012.6%
Ty Dillon3024.3801.0525.78570021.5%
Matt DiBenedetto3126.910.080.7221.5653007.4%
Ross Chastain3231.1300.3513.9154003.5%
Corey Lajoie3331.790.140.5513.7349002.6%
Landon Cassill3431.820.040.4714.652003.6%
JJ Yeley3531.890.140.1815.3451002.7%
BJ McLeod3632.350.140.215.4447002.4%
Jeffrey Earnhardt3731.140.140.2218.8648004.5%
Timmy Hill3832.380.140.2117.3846002.5%
Harrison Rhodes3932.5900.2517.94

Now on to the NASCAR DFS picks for this weekend!


Kyle Larson ($10,200) — Larson will start 10th thanks to the qualifying rainout. That gives him a nice haul of place differential possible with a race-winning car. Larson posted the best single, five, 10, and 15 lap times in final practice. He’s also a steep track master, with the best driver rating and average finish over the past eight steep track races.

Kevin Harvick ($12,100) — You’re going to want a dominator, and Harvick apparently has the car to beat this weekend according to Larson himself. Harvick improved from 10th, to ninth, to fourth, to third as the run went from one to five to 10 to 15 laps, and apparently was even stronger over an even greater number of laps. Harvick has the most dominator points at Dover since 2013. Look for him to get the edge over polesitter Kyle Busch relatively quickly, especially given Busch’s poor lap times.

Matt Kenseth ($7100) — Dover was one of Kenseth’s best tracks when he ran full time, and it looks to be a solid track once again for him this weekend. Kenseth rolls off from 28th. Kenseth has the third-best driver rating at Dover over the past eight races at the track. Yes, that was in Gibbs equipment, but that puts him ahead of former JGR teammatess Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin. He should bring home that mediocre Roush Fenway Racing equipment to a respectable finish, and a solid DraftKings points day.


Martin Truex Jr. ($11,500) — Truex may not have the strongest car this weekend, but I think he is in play for dominating just from a starting position standpoint. He has a better car, and Dover track record than Busch, and if something happens to Harvick on a pit stop — which is very possible given how poor the 4 team has been at times on pit stops — Truex could jump to the front for a bit. Truex has the most Dover dominator points and the most DraftKings points per race since 2016 (83.05), so don’t rule him out.

Clint Bowyer ($9300) — There’s probably going to be a dominator that isn’t Harvick or Larson, and if it isn’t Truex, my other best bet is Bowyer. Dover is a strong track for him, and he has an average finish of 4.0 here in his two incident-free races at Stewart-Haas Racing. Bowyer was so happy with his car, that he pulled it off the track with over 10 minutes left in final practice. Bowyer was fourth, second, and seventh over five, 10, and 15 laps respectively.

Jimmie Johnson ($8200) — Johnson is out of the playoffs, but that isn’t going to stop him from pushing hard for a win, especially at one of his best tracks. Like Harvick, Johnson posted lap times that ranked better and better as the run went along, moving from 20th, to 13th, to 10th, to fourth from one, to five, to 10, to 15 laps. His price tag is phenomenal too, and he’ll roll off 13th, which could keep his ownership from soaring through the roof, with other solid options in his price range starting farther back.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6000) — Stenhouse and Regan Smith should compete for top honors in terms of ownership in this price range. I think I like Smith more in cash, but Stenhouse more in GPPs. Stenhouse is in better equipment, and is solid at the steep tracks. He has a 14.5 career average finish at Dover when removing incidents, and practiced solidly inside the top 10 over five and 10 consecutive laps.


Ryan Blaney ($8900) — Dover is a terrible track for Blaney, and because qualifying was rained out he’ll start too far forward, in eighth. Blaney was only 21st over 10 laps in final practice, and nowhere near a top car in any of the long run splits.

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