GLSP uses historical matchup, team, player, and Vegas lines to generate situation-agnostic running back projections. The low projection is equivalent to the 25th percentile point total from the comparable matchups. The median projection provides a benchmark, with even odds of the player producing more or less. The high projection is equivalent to the 75th percentile point total from the comparable matchups.
Remember, the most valuable way to incorporate GLSP into your lineup-setting process is to identify surprisingly high and low projections, then strategically start or fade the outliers. This week’s projections are based on a blend of the past five, four, and three weeks, meaning they’re entirely based on games from this season.
These are the projections from Dave Caban. They’ll be available each week on Wednesdays as part of the Weekly Stats Explorer.
Week 6 GLSP Running Back Projections
Beyond the usual suspects, here are some interesting names.
Seattle is facing Oakland, who give up an average of 27 points to running backs (PPR). If we add Chris Carson and Mike Davis’ high projections we get just over 28 points. I think it’s possible both RBs have useful fantasy weeks. Carson’s floor is also one of the week’s best.
Isaiah Crowell has had two dud games. But in the other three games, he’s gone over 19 points. Crowell’s production profile skews heavily to rushing yards and TDs, noteworthy because the Jets are favored in this game. Dave Caban’s excellent Stat Explorer also tells us that the Colts have already given up five 18-plus point games to RBs.
We know that Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles are both out tonight. Corey Clement (7.7) has a better floor projection, but lower median and highs. Smallwood also has a more balanced production profile, making his usage more immune to game script.
Here’s how Smallwood compares to Clement and a few similar backs, taken from the RotoViz Screener.
To date, Smallwood and Clement have similarly valuable workloads, but Smallwood has been decidedly more efficient. I’m not sure if that will last, but it bodes well for his initial post-Ajayi usage. It’s also fun to compare Smallwood to these other backs, who are all considered more valuable.1
What in the actual what. At first glance, it’s easy to see why they have similar ceilings. Here’s how their pass game usage, a primary component of PPR performance, compares:
- Phillip Lindsay only has one game with four or more targets, but he’s been targeted in all five games.
- Ditto Royce Freeman, but he’s only been targeted in three of five games.
- Devontae Booker has two games with six or more targets and has been targeted in four of five games.
- All three got at least four targets last week.
Let’s go to the graphics.
- Booker is clearly not a factor on the ground.
- Booker has a lot of receiving expected points but has only been average with them.
- Lindsay has a decent amount of receiving expected points and has been very productive with them.
- Freeman has actually been better than Lindsay on the ground.
- Freeman’s been bad as a receiver, although on very limited opportunity.
So Booker can be replaced by either of the others on the ground, and by Lindsay through the air. He’s the hard fade.2 Lindsay seems to be the most irreplaceable, or at least the most game-script proof. Ride or die, in my opinion. But I also wouldn’t hesitate to fire up Freeman if you need to.
Dion Lewis has been a frequent high-ceiling GLSP recommendation, but not this week. Only one RB has gone over 10 PPR points against Baltimore,3 and only Chicago has surrendered fewer total points to the position.
Turnabout is fair play. Neither Alex Collins nor Javorius Allen have great ceilings. As usual, the floor favors the pass catcher, however.
On a per-game basis, Allen is getting about two more expected points while matching Collins’ efficiency. If I have to choose a Baltimore back, it’s Allen.
It’s hard to sit Christian McCaffrey at any time, but especially when the bye weeks are here. But the Fantasy Streaming App agrees, giving McCaffrey one of the week’s poorer matchups.
Odds and Ends
Notable good high projections:
- Joe Mixon (22)
- TJ Yeldon (21)
Notable poor high projections:
- LeSean McCoy (13)
- Alfred Morris (13)
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