Week 6 Waiver Wire Advice

RotoViz provides advice on players to target and fade on your fantasy football waiver wire.

Week 6 Waiver Wire Advice

I’ll present players by positional tiers, from most desirable to acquire (1) to least (3). Availability in ESPN leagues is shown in parentheses.

Quarterbacks – Tier 1

Andy Dalton (43) – Dalton has the third-best fantasy quarterback matchup in Week 6 and has the top streaming schedule for Weeks 7 and 8, according to the Fantasy Streaming App. Over the past three seasons, Dalton has averaged 18.3 points per game against Pittsburgh, his next opponent.

Alex Smith (36) – The primary appeal here is the fact that Smith’s bye week is out of the way, which could mean you have one less position to worry about on waivers.

Check out Giana Pacinelli’s weekly Streaming QB column for more advice.

Running Backs – Tier 1

These backs have been covered extensively at RotoViz,1 so I won’t go into too much detail. These three have reliable roles and decent production with upside.

Austin Ekeler (37) – Two favorable matchups (Cleveland and Tennessee) before his bye. The RB14 in season-long PPR leagues has started the season by going over 10 points in four of five games. His role is real.

Nyhiem Hines (53) – An unfavorable matchup against the Jets this week is offset by two favorable subsequent matchups against Buffalo and Oakland. Hines is currently fourth in RB targets and fifth in receiving expected points among RBs; this is a good role if he can keep it.

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Javorius Allen (41) – Another top-20 RB with four of five games over 10 points. His Week 7 and 8 matchups (New Orleans and Carolina) are very good for him.

Running Backs – Tier 2

There are a lot of running backs that have similar value in my opinion, so I wouldn’t bid much on any of these unless you’re desperate.

Mike Davis (85) – Teammate Chris Carson returned to action and out-carried Davis, but their workloads were similarly valuable. download (1)Also notable is that Rashaad Penny didn’t play at all. If it’s becoming a two-back committee, Davis’ workload is worth adding to your team.

Jalen Richard (92) – Richard has three double-digit games in five outings. The RotoViz Screener identifies Nyhiem Hines, Javorius Allen, and Chris Thompson as three of his top comps. A Week 7 bye bumps him down a bit, but it looks like he’s got a reliable if unexciting rest of season role.

Bilal Powell (37) – Powell is a top-30 RB who won’t get you a lot of points, but will always get you some, which can be nice during the bye weeks. The lack of big upside makes him just a small bid candidate for me.

Aaron Jones (37) and Jamaal Williams (50) – Both players earned 10 opportunities, although Williams’ was worth a couple more expected points.

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Personally, I prefer Jones, but Williams is now the lesser-owned. I’d like to see Jones get the bulk of the work, but I don’t think Green Bay has signaled that they’re going to do that. So if it’s a committee, both can have value; get the cheaper one (Williams).

Running Backs – Tier 3

Small bids only.

Wendell Smallwood (92) – Even though Jay Ajayi returned, Smallwood earned 10 opportunities (five each of rushing attempts and pass targets) and even registered more expected points than Ajayi. If Smallwood carves out a regular role, you’ll be glad you got him now and not later. Of course, Darren Sproles and Corey Clement could return, but that just makes Smallwood cheaper. Most of the time I prefer to bid on the hope of a season-long role vs. just a game or two of opportunity, which is why Smallwood slots in ahead of these guys.

Alfred Morris (50) and Kyle Juszczyk (99) – The 49ers lead back, Matt Breida, looks like he’ll miss at least a week with an ankle injury. Morris should see most of the rushing work, while Juszczyk will get most of the receptions. I’d take Morris, who is getting a couple of targets per game to go with his rushing work, over Juszczyk, who’s only managed a single rushing attempt. Even before Breida’s injury, Morris was low-key earning a more valuable rushing workload.download (2)

 

I wouldn’t bid much on either, because their next three matchups are neutral to poor, and with Breida expected to return, it’s not clear that either will have more than a game or two of relevance.

Alfred Blue (84) and D’Onta Foreman (94) – You guys, maybe Lamar Miller isn’t going to be a thing. Miller’s -0.15 rushing points over expectation per attempt is among the worst in the leagues for backs with similar workloads. Blue didn’t do much on the ground last week but did do well catching passes. Miller’s close to returning, but so is D’Onta Foreman. In nine games last year, Foreman had a workload similar to what Miller and Blue have gotten so far this year.

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I don’t know how this will shake out but I don’t think Miller is a lock to be the “workhorse” when he comes back. Blue could stay heavily involved. Foreman is eligible to return Week 7, so if you can hold him until then, he may step right into a useful role. It’s a risk but the price is probably free right now. Nobody wants to like Blue, but I’d hold him for a while if you can. Or pick him up for a tiny bid.

Wide Receivers – Tier 1

Quincy Enunwa (38) – Despite last week’s dud, he’s still a top-35 WR. If he just carries on as he has, that’s a nice get on waivers. But imagine if his efficiency improves as Sam Darnold gets the hang of things.

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Enunwa’s expected points are in a very desirable tier. He won’t be Keenan Allen but he’s useful as-is with some efficiency-based potential upside.

Mohamed Sanu (47) – He has three straight games over 15 points. Although Calvin Ridley is smashing, Sanu is holding his own.

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Ridley’s efficiency seems unsustainable for starters. But even if Sanu doesn’t get more work, he’s getting enough, and consistently enough, that he should be on a roster and in the bye-weeks starting conversation.

Chris Godwin (60) – Sneak attack! He was on bye last week, so he might slip under the radar. Before that though, he was earning 15 percent of targets with plus efficiency. Meanwhile, DeSean Jackson’s outrageous efficiency is bound to regress, which means some extra opportunity could accrue to Godwin.

Wide Receivers – Tier 2

Keelan Cole (46), Donte Moncrief (87), and DeDe Westbrook (58) – Pick a Jacksonville WR, anyone will do.

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Westbrook has passed Cole for the most expected points, but all three have a similar market share. I’m Team RotoViz so I prefer Cole, but Moncrief may be the cheapest despite the biggest workload.

Geronimo Allison (46) – I know that Marquez Valdes-Scantling had a nice game. I know Randall Cobb is the “No.2” WR in Green Bay. I also know this.

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Allison should get his job back. If anyone gets squeezed out, it should be Randall Cobb. 

Keke Coutee (80)

Back-to-back games over 17 points will get you on the radar in a hurry. I also think his role regresses in a hurry when Will Fuller is healthy. I also have NFI when Fuller will be healthy for an extended time, so if my bench is deep enough to hold him, I’m stashing Coutee and plugging him in when Fuller is limited or out.

Antonio Callaway (73) and Rashard Higgins (99) – He seems to get all the air yards and not do much with them. download (11)

After a 17-point game in Week 2, he hasn’t been above 9 points since. What’s interesting to me is that Rashard Higgins has a higher percentage of deep passes and a better yards per target number. He’s essentially unowned, too. I’m not a Higgins truther or anything, but I’m also not sure I want to pay much for the opportunity to find out Callaway was a flash in the pan. Since neither are proven or have much to go on, I’d either skip them or take the cheaper one. On a positive note, the Browns have an excellent stretch of games coming up for fantasy WRs (LA Chargers, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh).

Wide Receivers – Tier 3

Robby Anderson (58) – I’d go hard for Anderson if you’re really desperate. His upside (e.g. 2017) is as good or better than any of the “Tier 1” WRs in this article. Of course, Week 5 could just have been the last dying spasm of his fantasy relevance, but I think it’s more likely that he returns at least part way to last year’s form as Sam Darnold starts to figure things out.

Josh Reynolds (100) – Both Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp are in the concussion protocol. If either or both can’t play next week, look for Reynolds to get enough usage to make him a suitable desperation play. However, when both Cooks and Kupp return (which could be this week), Reynolds goes away again. I’m not WR desperate enough to target Reynolds anywhere.

Tight Ends – Tier 1

I’ll let Neil Dutton do the heavy lifting in his weekly GLSP column, but here are two names that intrigue me at tight end.

Greg Olsen (40) – He expects to return to action this week. Who knows what he’ll bring to the table, but even half an Olsen is better than a lot of other fantasy TEs. If you’re in good shape at other positions, a modest bid on Olsen makes sense.

Geoff Swaim (93) – Okay, I’m serious here.

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Swaim is just a few points behind Cole Beasley for the Cowboys’ lead in expected receiving points (not counting running backs). He’s also the only one in positive territory from an efficiency perspective.

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