The Tour heads about five hours down the coast to Southern California for the Genesis Open this week. As usual, this event will be played at Riviera CC. In Riviera, we have a Par 71 course that plays just about 7,350 yards. If you want to see some of the trends and the course preview, head over to yesterday’s article.
Checking the Chalk
Bubba Watson ($9,700) is a course history darling. He’s sure to be a popular option this week given that he’s won this event multiple times and we know that Bubba plays well where Bubba plays well. Mixed in with his three wins at this track are three missed cuts, a WD and a couple of finishes in the teens. It isn’t just course history for the lefty …Watson played well in Phoenix, hitting nearly 80 percent of greens in regulation en route a T4 finish. If not for the 124 putts he needed, he could’ve been even higher up the leaderboard in the desert. That type of upside would certainly make people think of him as a GPP play, but he’ll likely be the chalk of the $9,000 range.
Three or four years ago, a guy as owned as Tommy Fleetwood ($8,600) was last week who disappointed would be barely owned the following week. There’s no denying that he turned in a very disappointing last week at $10,300 but the price drop is too much. He’ll be popular again this week thanks to his overall form. Fleetwood has hit at least two-thirds of the greens in regulation for ten straight events, now. While results have varied depending on his putter, he’s outperformed his salary based scoring expectation in seven of ten starts. The Englishman made the cut here last year, despite not having his “A” game.
Adam Hadwin ($7,800) is another golfer that has a blend of course history and form. He has made all four cuts in his career at this event. In those starts, he’s finished in the top 25 three times with a sixth-place finish. Hadwin has a 31.3 SOFA, which is his DK Scoring Over Field Average which is sixth best in this year’s field. Recently, he’s played well, too. The Canadian is on a streak of seven straight made cuts with four top 25s.
Jon Rahm ($10,400) is the king of the castle in my model. It’s a blend of top-25 finish and top-15 DK points, and it puts Rahm’s chances at 72 percent to hit one of those thresholds. The Spaniard is on a tear lately and showing no signs of slowing down. Since the calendar flipped to 2019, he’s finished in the top ten in all four of his starts with 11 rounds in the 60s. In a week full of course history narratives, I’ll take the 24-year-old who’s making his debut at this event.
Another favorite from the model is Patrick Cantlay ($9,000). He wound up third with just over a 69 percent chance at a Top 15 DK scoring performance this week. Cantlay played well here last year, finishing in fourth place. He lost his ball-striking a bit at Torrey Pines but WD from Pebble Beach last week to prepare for Riviera. His game fits and he seems ready to break out in a strong field.
A cheap pivot option that’s interesting to me is Brandon Harkins ($6,800). He didn’t have his best stuff at Torrey Pines, missing the cut while shooting 80 on Friday. Since then, Harkins has found his way into the top 30 in both starts he’s made. Four of his eight rounds wound up in the 60s over that stretch and he’s hitting over 75 percent of his greens in regulation.
Last week was an unmitigated disaster for the cash locks. Shane Lowry was just the second missed cut from this section out of 12 golfers picked and Tommy Fleetwood only managed a 48th-place finish. That brings the total to 10/12 made cuts and seven top-15 finishes.
- Tiger Woods ($9,500) put together a 20th-place finish last time out. This seems like the perfect place for Tiger to jumpstart his 2019 from a fit perspective and it might be one of the only times Eldrick doesn’t show up in the chalk section.
- Adam Hadwin ($7,800) is worth the ownership this week for all the reasons above.
Genesis Open - Ownership Projections and Model Results
|Player Name||Salary||Final Run||Model Percentile Rating|
|Charles Howell III||7900||15.48||0.95|
|Davis Love III||6400||0.12||0.60|
|Cheng Tsung Pan||6800||1.54||0.56|
|Si Woo Kim||7400||2.50||0.43|
|Meen Whee Kim||6000||0.26||0.29|
|Tae Hee Lee||6400||0.04||0.13|
|Rafael Cabrera Bello||7800||11.90||0.11|
|Ted Potter Jr||6500||0.63||0.07|