The idea of the multiverse is fascinating to me. You change one small thing in one timeline and it breaks off and affects things down the road in profound ways. In the Marvel Cinematic Universe, that has Earth-shattering, Thanos-snapping implications. In fantasy football, it’s just my fancy way of saying that a range of outcomes exists. My goal for this series is to pick a player from each team that is either polarizing or interesting in some other way.
Check out the previous installment in the series:
What to Expect Based on ADP
We’re going to continue this series with the Atlanta Falcons and examine what to do with Kyle Pitts. He’s currently going right around pick 32 on Underdog Fantasy. One of my favorite parts of the Underdog Advance Rate Explorer is the positional heat map. All of the tabs are useful – and will be shown in this series at one point or another – but, the heat map is particularly useful for illustrating when you should be taking tight ends in your drafts.
This heatmap is based on data from FanBall drafts (2015-2021) and looks at win rates above/below expectation based on where a TE1 was taken. I cut it down to the single-digit rounds so that we can narrow down our focus. Pitts is going at the 3/4 turn. We can see, historically, that’s been a place where you can help your chances by grabbing your TE1.
Now, you might be saying, “well, duh, that’s where Travis Kelce or George Kittle or Mark Andrews have gone.” Isn’t that the point? We can find these elite TEs in this range that give you an advantage over your league. In fact, Madison Parkhill just examined the viability of the “Bully TE” strategy about a month ago.