We’re heading to Muirfield Village Golf Club for the Memorial Tournament this week. A lot will be made about all of the “radical” changes made to the course. While there have been plenty of holes that will look different to what we’re used to seeing at Muirfield, I don’t believe that there’s anything – other than guessing – that can be done to see how those changes affect how the course plays. Spending time and energy on that stuff has never been a part of my process. Most of the time, any differences that are perceived are double counted and people take far too seriously to the point that we should consider fading the conclusions being drawn altogether.
Completely random NFL DFS nugget, but it’s analogous to when projections are run for an NFL weekend, adjusted for weather, and then you go ahead and alter your exposures because of the weather. The weather was already accounted for in the projections. You going in and changing your exposures after the fact is harming your player pool more than you think. In fact, sometimes those are the games to target in GPPs because you get lower ownership with players that would otherwise be highly owned. But, I digress. You came here for golf, so let’s get into the field and see who’s worth rostering. If you haven’t done so already, I strongly suggest reading the new series that we’ve published here on volatility. Both Part 1 and Part 2 are out and are vital for you to understand how to read these charts I’ll be including in these posts moving forward.
The Stud Range ($9,000-plus)
The third part of the Quantifying Volatility series will touch on this range, but we’ll take a look and identify some targets as a sneak peek. There’s more of the same, as far as takeaways go, in the stud tier. The differences between more and less volatile golfers aren’t as stark here.
All things being equal, we’d prefer rostering more volatile, lower-owned golfers in GPPs. If that’s true, then the trio we should be targeting within our builds is Bryson DeChambeau ($10,900), Rory McIlroy ($10,600), and Hideki Matsuyama ($9,400). Stacking either of the more expensive golfers with Matsuyama seems like a good way to get exposure to some upside in GPPs. I’m indifferent to the golfers in the lower left quadrant, especially if any one golfer is going to carry some ownership.
Mid-Range ($7,500 – $8,900)
With very few exceptions, we want to target the golfers that are more volatile when given the opportunity. This salary range spans a rather large gap in PRK Score. That can provide some interesting opportunities for us because there are times where objectively bad golfers pick up ownership for dumb reasons.
We want to target some volatility in the mid-range as well. Sam Burns ($8,900), Sungjae Im ($8,200), Emiliano Grillo ($7,700), and Cam Smith ($8,600) fit the bill there.
Value Tier (Sub-$7,500)
Here’s a look at the golfers with a PRK Score of 55+ sorted by their recent volatility. a