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PGA DFS: WGC Mexico Championship Course Preview and Trends

The Tour heads south of the border this week for the WGC Mexico Championship. If you’ve seen the meme with two Spidermen pointing at each other, you know the deal between Riviera CC and Club de Golf Chapultepec this week. Chapultepec is another par 71 course that plays right around 7,350 yards. It also features poa annua greens and kikuyu grass in the fairways and rough. The course is at extreme altitude, though, so it plays much shorter than the scorecard suggests it will.

PAST WINNERS

Golfer Year Winning Score DraftKings Points
Phil Mickelson 2018 -16 115.5
Dustin Johnson 2017 -14 119

OFF THE TEE

Since there have only been two editions of this tournament, ten golfers have finished in the top five of DK scoring. That limits our ability to make sweeping generalizations about what’s important here. The Top 5 group tells a different story than the correlations for the entire field. Instead of looking at ranks this week, I want to look at the ranges of each off the tee stat to get a feel for what’s actually going on from a narrower view.

On the one hand, driving distance is about three times more correlated to DK scoring than accuracy. On the other, the rankings have six (60 percent) golfers in the top 25 of accuracy compared to four (40 percent) in the top 25 of distance for the top-five scoring group. When you look at the stats, though, no golfer in that high performing group had a distance average below 298 for the week. Six of them hit less than 60 percent of their fairways.

The most important stat off the tee through two iterations of this tournament has been SG: Off The Tee. It explains nearly 25 percent of DK Scoring and serves as a proxy for good drivers of the ball that have a bit of distance but aren’t complete sprayers off the tee.tee viz

SG:OTT Rank (2019) Golfer (Salary)
1 Rory McIlory ($11,100)
2 Jon Rahm ($10,700)
3 Bubba Watson ($8,400)
4 Gary Woodland ($7,900)
5 Rickie Fowler ($10,300)
6 Charles Howell ($7,800)
7 Abraham Ancer ($6,600)
8 Bryson DeChambeau ($10,000)
9 Tony Finau ($9,900)
10 Emiliano Grillo ($6,900)

ON APPROACH

Hitting greens is king as usual. In fact, greens in regulation explains 33 percent of DK scoring at Chapultepec. Eight of ten golfers who finished in the top five of DK scoring over the past two years finished in the top 25 of greens in regulation, including four in the top 10. The two that didn’t (Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas in 2017) needed to put up top eight putting performances to stay afloat.

GIR Rank (2018) Golfer (Salary)
1 Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000)
2 Keegan Bradley ($7,000)
3 Tiger Woods ($9,500)
4 Charles Howell ($7,800)
5 Justin Thomas ($11,800)
6 Matt Kuchar ($7,700)
7 Phil Mickelson ($9,300)
8 Rory McIlroy ($11,100)
9 Ian Poulter ($7,900)
10 Gary Woodland ($7,900)

Key Stats

  • Greens in Regulation
  • SG: Off the Tee
  • SG: Putting (Poa)

WGC Mexico - Course History Cheatsheet

NameAverage DK PointsLowest DK Point TotalHighest DK Point TotalBest Finish PositionWorst Finish PositionScoring Over Field Average (SOFA)StartsMade CutsMissed Cuts
Abraham Ancer5252525252-13.81110
Kiradech Aphibarnrat95.595.595.55529.69110
Daniel Berger76.2575.577141612.06220
Adam Bland74747418188.19110
Dean Burmester74747430308.19110
Rafael Cabrera-Bello82.55810733818.31220
Patrick Cantlay6565653030-0.81110
Paul Casey76.57578121612.31220
Kevin Chappell61.755766.53055-2.44220
Jason Dufner58.555622355-5.69220
Paul Dunne5151515555-14.81110
Tony Finau72727227276.19110
Ross Fisher8059.5100.534615.81220
Matthew Fitzpatrick68.557.579.516304.31220
Tommy Fleetwood95.59110021431.31220
Rickie Fowler63.559681637-0.69220
Dylan Frittelli48.548.548.55555-17.31110
Sergio Garcia83.5739471219.31220
Branden Grace63.756364.53032-0.44220
GavinKyle Green3737376464-28.81110
Adam Hadwin8181819915.19110
Brian Harman91.591.591.55525.69110
Tyrrell Hatton90.7580101.531026.56220
Russell Henley44.544.544.55858-21.31110
Charley Hoffman72727220206.19110
Yuta Ikeda58.554634661-5.69220
Dustin Johnson106.2593.51191742.06220
Chan Kim000100100-65.81101
Kevin Kisner68.756572.511294.56220
Patton Kizzire81.581.581.5121215.69110
Satoshi Kodaira55.555.555.55454-10.31110
Brooks Koepka30.75061.548100-33.44211
Matt Kuchar5442.565.52058-10.19220
Marc Leishman5757573737-8.81110
David Lipsky52.2551.5534863-11.94220
Joost Luiten60.7559.5622537-3.44220
Hideki Matsuyama33.75067.525100-30.44211
Phil Mickelson102.2589115.51738.06220
Yusaku Miyazato5555556060-10.81110
Francesco Molinari74737520259.81220
Alexander Noren6654.577.514551.81220
Louis Oosthuizen65.2560.57030481.06220
Wade Ormsby59.559.559.55050-6.31110
Pat Perez69.5637620385.31220
Thomas Pieters75.7561.59053711.56220
Jon Rahm88.5809732024.31220
Chez Reavie5353535252-12.81110
Patrick Reed5955.562.53761-5.19220
Justin Rose65.256070.537381.06220
Brett Rumford4343436262-22.81110
Xander Schauffele73737318187.19110
Charl Schwartzel60.556653848-3.69220
Shubhankar Sharma8989899923.19110
Webb Simpson6262623737-3.81110
Jordan Spieth82.257688.5121418.06220
Kyle Stanley69.569.569.525253.69110
Brendan Steele61.551.571.52048-2.69220
Brandon Stone49.754752.56067-14.44220
Justin Thomas108.25103113.52544.06220
Peter Uihlein67676737371.19110
Jhonattan Vegas65.2562.56820381.06220
Bubba Watson73.560879389.31220
Bernd Wiesberger5551593045-9.19220
Gary Woodland66.7562.57138502.56220
Byeong-Hun An62.562.562.54848-0.08110
Sam Brazel57.557.557.55555-5.08110
Roberto Castro5353534545-9.58110
Jason Day000100100-62.58101
Marcus Fraser51.551.551.55858-11.08110
Jim Furyk5252525858-10.58110
Matthew Griffin31.531.531.57575-31.08110
Emiliano Grillo53.553.553.55252-9.08110
Bill Haas58.558.558.53232-4.08110
Scott Hend4444446565-18.58110
Mike Hendry64646452521.42110
J.B. Holmes777777121214.42110
Mackenzie Hughes55.555.555.53232-7.08110
Zach Johnson43.543.543.55858-19.08110
Martin Kaymer797979232316.42110
K.T. Kim2828287676-34.58110
Si Woo Kim3636367272-26.58110
Russell Knox4848487070-14.58110
Pablo Larrazabal38.538.538.57272-24.08110
William McGirt66.566.566.528283.92110
Rory McIlroy8888887725.42110
Ryan Moore70.570.570.528287.92110
Kevin Na5151515252-11.58110
Sean O'Hair44.544.544.56565-18.08110
Scott Piercy66666632323.42110
Adam Scott5959594545-3.58110
Brandt Snedeker94.594.594.57731.92110
Henrik Stenson000100100-62.58101
Richard Sterne45.545.545.57272-17.08110
Andy Sullivan71717120208.42110
Hideto Tanihara69.569.569.532326.92110
Jimmy Walker737373252510.42110
Jeunghun Wang43.543.543.57171-19.08110
Lee Westwood767676282813.42110
Danny Willett49.549.549.56969-13.08110
Chris Wood57.557.557.52828-5.08110
Fabrizio Zanotti75.575.575.5121212.92110

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