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The RotoViz Scouting Index – 2019 v 1.1 QB Production

With the NFL Scouting Combine in full-swing, Dave Caban reviews the collegiate production of the top-five quarterbacks included in the RotoViz Scouting Index.

Last week, we released Version 1 of the 2019 RotoViz Scouting Index (RSI). The RSI aggregates and compiles NFL prospect rankings from a variety of more traditional scouting outlets. It’s useful for approximating a player’s draft stock which will largely shape his initial fantasy value.

Let’s take a look at the top-five quarterbacks from Version 1 — a group that distanced itself from the rest of the class — and familiarize ourselves with their collegiate production.

RSIQBV1

Season by Season

Kyler Murray, who Matt Freedman believes should be the first player drafted at the position, owns the strongest overall season. In 2018, he passed for more than 4,000 yards, while adding nearly 1,000 on the ground. With 11 rushing touchdowns contributing to a total of 51 scores, he was a monster in his final college season. Murray’s adjusted yards per attempt of 13.4 is the strongest of any of the seasons included in our sample.

RSIV1.1QB

The above data only includes regular season games.

An argument could be made for Dwayne Haskin’s 2018. It lacks the gaudy rushing totals of Murray’s but includes 500 more passing yards, six more passing touchdowns, and four scores on the ground. While Haskins and Murray’s profiles boast incredible seasons, Drew Lock, Daniel Jones, and Will Grier have more robust overall bodies of work.

Lock struggled with accuracy but improved throughout his career. Jones was a productive rusher but failed to pass for more than 3,000 yards in any season. Grier’s impressive touchdown production between 2017 and 2018 is the highlight of his profile.

Career

RSIV1.1QB2

Lock’s completion percentage is a major red flag, but his yardage and touchdown totals may be enough for this to go overlooked. He was able to compile stats but was not efficient while doing so. Haskins, Murray, and Grier threw 12 or fewer passes per touchdown, whereas Lock recorded 16 attempts per touchdown.1

His AYA of 7.9 ranks 116 of the 308 passers, since 2008, that recorded more than 500 career attempts. In reviewing the 192 players that recorded lower career AYA totals, only Nick Foles, Ryan Tannehill, Mike Glennon, Christian Ponder, and Trevor Siemian played significant stretches as NFL starters.2 As a point of reference, the top-25 QBs in our sample includes Baker Mayfield, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Case Keenum, Robert Griffen III, Andrew Luck, and Mitchell Trubisky.

Final Thoughts

Lock’s profile is problematic. While he may be drafted as the third QB in this year’s draft, it seems very unlikely that he will become a routine starter at the NFL level. Haskins and Murray were so impressive in 2018 that one can overlook the majority of concerns associated with there only being one season of data available. They are by and large the best prospects in the class and should be drafted well ahead of their peers.

Jones should not be considered a viable NFL prospect. As a result, Grier will likely be viewed as the third best passer in the class by the analytics community.

  1. Jones was even worse, throwing 27 passes to every touchdown.  (back)
  2. While not the most scientific process we’ve ever employed at RotoViz, it helps to give us a sense of what his ceiling might be.  (back)

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