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PGA DFS: Arnold Palmer Invitational Course Preview and Trends

We’re staying down in Florida for another week as the tour heads from PGA National to Bay Hill Club and Lodge. The Arnold Palmer Invitational has been held at Bay Hill – under many names – dating back to 1979. It’s a par 72 course that plays right around 7,400 yards. We’re looking at Tifeagle Bermudagrass greens this week. Over the past five years, the course has been anywhere from the ninth to the 28th most difficult course on Tour with winning scores ranging from 11-under to 19-under.

PAST WINNERS

Golfer Year Winning Score DraftKings Points
Rory McIlroy 2018 -18 123
Marc Leishman 2017 -11 106.5
Jason Day 2016 -17 123.5
Matt Every 2015 -19 122.5
Matt Every 2014 -13 110.5

OFF THE TEE

Since 2010, there have been 46 golfers that have finished in the Top 5 of DK Scoring here. Of that group, 20 (43 percent) have finished in the top 20 of driving distance and 24 (52 percent) hit that ranking in accuracy off the tee. In general, it’s a pretty even split with both distance and accuracy off the tee having about 0.08 R-Squared to DK scoring. On the one hand, golfers who finished in the top 20 of distance have averaged 70.36 DK points. On the other hand, golfers who finished that high in accuracy have averaged 66.94 DK points. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee is more highly correlated with DK scoring (0.13 R-Squared) and the golfers that have finished in the Top 20 in that category have averaged 71.41 DK points.

tee viz

SG:OTT Rank (2019) Golfer (Salary)
1  Rory McIlroy ($11,400)
2  Bubba Watson ($8,000)
3  Kevin Streelman ($6,800)
4  Keith Mitchell ($7,500)
5  Luke List ($7,900)
6  Bryson DeChambeau ($9,700)
7  Adam Hadwin ($7,700)
8  Brooks Koepka ($10,200)
9  Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300)
10  Jason Kokrak ($8,300)

ON APPROACH

Surprise, surprise … hitting greens in regulation is important! If we take a look at that same group of 46 golfers that finished their week inside the top five of DK scoring we can see just how important the approach game is at Bay Hill. Just over 50 percent of that group finished in the top 20 of GIR and 30 (65 percent) of those golfers hit that threshold in SG: Approach. Golfers who finished in the top 20 of GIR averaged a SOFA (Scoring Over Field Average) of 23.1 DK points. Those who finished in the top 20 of SG: APP averaged a SOFA of 26 DK points.

SG: APP Rank (2019) Golfer (Salary)
1  Tiger Woods ($11,100)
2  Hideki Matsuyama ($9,300)
3  Keegan Bradley ($8,400)
4  Talor Gooch ($6,800)
5  Jason Kokrak ($8,300)
6  Chris Kirk ($6,900)
7  Zach Johnson ($7,700)
8  Marc Leishman ($9,500)
9  Brooks Koepka ($10,200)
10  Phil Mickelson ($9,200)

Putting Splits

It’s tempting for people to look at putting because it is so highly correlated to DK scoring. Unfortunately, it’s fair to say that putting performance is one of the least sticky golf metrics in small two-to-four round samples from week to week. Below is a list of the Top 10 Bermuda splits with at least 20 rounds in the last two years.

SG:Putt Split Rank Golfer (Salary)
1 Kiradech Aphibarnrat ($7,100)
2 JJ Spaun ($6,600)
3 Keith Mitchell ($7,500)
4 Pat Perez ($7,000)
5 Tiger Woods ($11,100)
6 Ryan Blaum ($6,200)
7 Nate Lashley ($6,900)
8 Scott Langley ($6,600)
9 Sungjae Im ($7,000)
10 Danny Willett ($7,000)

Key Stats

  • Greens in Regulation
  • SG: Off the Tee
  • SG: Putting (Bermuda)

Course History Since 2010 - Bay Hill Club & Lodge

Player NameSalaryStartsMade CutsMissed CutsAverage DK PointsLowest DK Point TotalHighest DK Point TotalBest Finish PositionWorst Finish PositionScoring Over Field Average (SOFA)
Rory McIlroy1140044096.38012312745.0
Tiger Woods1110044097.06712112450.7
Justin Rose1070086272.623.5104.5210025.3
Rickie Fowler1040076167.22388310019.4
Brooks Koepka1020031250.82766.5261001.3
Jason Day990066075.350.5123.514526.1
Bryson DeChambeau970022094.876113.522742.2
Marc Leishman950097265.630106.5110017.5
Hideki Matsuyama930044070.453.588.564919.2
Phil Mickelson920043155.527.566.52410010.7
Tommy Fleetwood910022072.56877102623.6
Francesco Moli-ri900066076.36683.553426.5
Patrick Reed890032161.23294710012.6
Billy Horschel880066064.748.577137514.9
Tyrrell Hatton870022070.35189.546921.4
Charles Howell860099063.346.582.5145615.2
Daniel Berger850011088.588.588.5131334.7
Keegan Bradley840076166.415100210017.5
Jason Kokrak830064257.913.59441008.2
Lucas Glover820064256.82080.571007.0
Henrik Stenson810098175.425109.5210027.3
Bubba Watson800075253.63.58441007.1
Ian Poulter800088068.954.58534620.5
Luke List790022076.567.585.571727.6
Louis Oosthuizen790032159.320.59491008.8
J.B. Holmes780065161.233811010013.1
Si Woo Kim780032144.72357.549100-5.7
Zach Johnson770098163.32992510015.2
Adam Hadwin770022074.864.58563625.1
Cameron Champ7600---------
Michael Thompson760011056.05656363611.3
Keith Mitchell7500---------
Byeong-Hun An750043157.122.576.5141007.9
Rafael Cabrera Bello7500---------
Matt Every740096361.322122.5110013.2
Matt Wallace7400---------
Hao Tong Li7400---------
Charl Schwartzel740043148.02662451001.2
Abraham Ancer7300---------
Beau Hossler730011050.050506666-1.8
Scott Piercy730030320.01225.5100100-27.1
Matthew Fitzpatrick730042245.517.568.513100-4.5
Ryan Moore730087158.61990410011.2
Scott Stallings720051425.9165048100-22.9
Chesson Hadley720033060.85365.526679.4
Martin Kaymer720011060.560.560.5232314.5
Kevin -720076170.62492210022.8
Brandt Snedeker720096350.116.585.581002.0
Kevin Kisner720042252.322.594.521001.0
Thorbjorn Olesen7100---------
J.T. Poston7100---------
Shane Lowry710020227.52629100100-25.3
Kyle Stanley710043158.61675.51210012.0
Steve Stricker710011049.0494952523.2
Kiradech Aphibarnrat710032175.829.5104.5610022.9
Charley Hoffman700043164.52497.5210017.7
Jho-ttan Vegas700043143.4145943100-4.3
Danny Willett700021143.515.571.529100-9.3
Aaron Wise700011075.07575414123.3
Pat Perez700075247.42466.5171000.6
Sungjae Im7000---------
Brian Gay700063337.9176622100-8.7
Harold Varner690021139.524.554.534100-10.2
-te Lashley6900---------
Patrick Rodgers690032156.210.582.571005.8
Joaquin Niemann6900---------
Graeme McDowell690095450.415.59521002.3
Chris Kirk690074349.515.580.5121000.6
Harris English690074348.91185.514100-0.1
Talor Gooch680011076.07676262624.3
Kevin Streelman680076155.92483.571007.4
Bill Haas680043154.016.582.581009.2
Eddie Pepperell6800---------
Roger Sloan6800---------
Cheng-Tsung Pan680022057.044.569.541568.1
Martin Laird670099064.04110717615.9
Adam Schenk6700---------
Sung Kang670021139.31959.558100-13.3
Sam Ryder6700---------
Jason Dufner670043148.822.572151004.0
Sam Horsfield670011072.07272141420.3
Braden Thornberry6600---------
Danny Lee660063347.6267717100-2.3
J.J. Spaun660011055.0555549499.0
Ernie Els660086259.317112110011.3
Aaron Baddeley660053246.622.571.512100-0.8
Scott Langley660010123.02323100100-21.9
Hudson Swafford650054156.720.582.5101006.0
Sam Saunders650084443.11873.529100-5.4
Dominic Bozzelli6500---------
Jimmy Walker650043153.32176.581007.0
Vaughn Taylor650053248.323.569.5211001.6
Austin Cook650011062.562.562.5363610.8
Brendan Steele640064250.311.578.5201002.0
Carlos Ortiz640011077.07777212123.2
Martin Trainer6400---------
Andrew Landry6400---------
Hunter Mahan640086253.626.565.5211005.2
Brian Harman640074350.719.578131001.7
Corey Conners6300---------
Sam Burns630011067.06767494915.3
Vijay Singh630084442.618.57220100-5.8
Justin Suh6300---------
Davis Love630065160.63989.51410010.9
Joel Dahmen6300---------
Ollie Schniederjans620022058.355.56134419.4
Stewart Cink620096347.7197012100-0.4
Michael Kim620011068.06868171722.0
Anirban Lahiri620021132.017.546.575100-16.9
Ryan Armour620011043.043437777-8.8
Ryan Blaum6200---------
Tim Herron610093633.716.569.511100-14.4
Richy Werenski6100---------
Ted Potter610030314.513.515100100-32.6
Robert Gamez610090914.6624.5100100-33.5
D.A. Points610073439.115.581.517100-8.6
Brice Garnett610010116.516.516.5100100-32.4
Viktor Hovland6000---------
Robert Streb600040424.321.527.5100100-26.7
Anders Albertson6000---------
Rod Perry600041318.8102776100-29.1
Adam Long6000---------
Bronson Burgoon6000---------

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