ADP Arbitrage: Is Lance Moore Still Undervalued?

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Image via Flickr/Football Schedule

Unless you’ve been living under a fantasy rock you’ve heard of Lance Moore. Or you could be new. Or maybe you have some personal vendetta against ever drafting Saints players. Or…No I’m out of ideas. Basically, you’ve likely heard of Lance Moore and are familiar with his resume.

He had his breakout year back in 2008 when Colston went down for an extended period of time. People were ready to love the guy in fantasy, but he responded in 2009 by missing over half the season. Ever since, people seem to dismiss Lance Moore as a fantasy after-thought. A guy with value, perhaps, but a guy no one really gets excited about.

Make no mistake about it, Lance Moore lacks sex appeal…But many fantasy drafts are won on “boring” picks. So let’s take a closer look at Lance Moore’s 2013 prospects.

Advantages:

· No more Robert Meacham. (Who left in 2011 free agency for the Chargers.)

· No more Devery Henderson. (Who just left this off-season for the Redskins.)

· Sean Payton is back. This can only mean good things for the Saints offense.

· Drew Brees is still his quarterback.

While there may be some sleepers we like on the Saints roster, there’s no real or immediate threat to his #2 WR status yet. And he’s only 29.

Dis-advantages:

· I heard a rumor he doesn’t like yogurt. I mean, I may have made this one up in my head. But I love yogurt. It’d break my heart if it were true.

· ………..

Yeah…That’s all I got. Sorry. I guess the only real “knock” on Moore is that we can likely think of him as only the 3rd or 4th best option on his team, behind Graham, Colston and possibly Sproles, which would limit his theoretical upside. Sure, Moore may not finish in the top 10 WRs this year – barring injuries to any of the guys mentioned…but again, fantasy leagues are generally won or lost by the guys on your roster who are NOT elite options at their position. You need depth. Depth like Lance Moore.

Let’s take a look at this ADP Arbitrage data provided by the Rotoviz app:

NAME SEAS OFF AGE WEIGHT GMS TRGS RECS YDS TDS recFPOP YPT ADP
Lance Moore 2012 NO 29 190 15 6.93 4.33 69.4 0.4 0.3 10.01 40

Comparables

NAME SEAS OFF AGE WEIGHT GMS TRGS RECS YDS TDS recFPOP YPT ADP
Pierre Garcon 2012 WAS 26 210 10 6.8 4.5 64.4 0.4 0.27 9.47 23
Cecil Shorts 2012 JAC 25 205 14 7.5 3.93 69.93 0.5 0.29 9.32 34
Randall Cobb 2012 GB 22 192 15 6.93 5.33 63.6 0.53 0.37 9.17 9

Overall ADP:  Cobb 3rd round. Garcon 5th round. Shorts 8th round. Moore 10th round

Yet look how eerily similar all these players are. Maybe those three guys have a theoretical higher upside than Moore, but at this discount I’ll be a buyer on Lance Moore as often as possible.

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