This May Be Your Last, Best Chance To Buy Low On Doug Martin


All the uncertainty surrounding the Bucs right now represents a prime buying opportunity, as many owners of the TB skill players are nervous about the impact that rookie QB  Mike Glennon (who, full disclosure, we don’t think will be very good) will have on the offense, especially with Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson banged up. What these owners probably won’t realize is that the switch to a rookie QB is likely good news for Doug Martin, who will be a featured part of the offense (and is apparently prone to check-downs, which helps lots in PPR). Enough pixels have been spilled explaining exactly why Doug Martin deserved the #1 overall pick in your fantasy drafts (partially because he finished with the third most yards from scrimmage of any rookie running back in NFL history) so I won’t recap those arguments here. Suffice it to say, three-down thumpers who gets 25+ touches a game are a little rare. (EDIT: I had intended to reference Jon Moore’s fantastic article demonstrating that really bad teams can produce fantasy useful RBs. Give it a read, it’s pretty central to my thesis.)

No, the primary (additional) reason why you should be buying low on Dougie Fresh is schedule related.  If you peep the Buy Low Machine, my new favorite RotoViz tool, you will see that TB has had a very difficult schedule to date (scored 28/100, where 100 is the easiest schedule). His remainder of the season strength of schedule (through week 16)? 50.42. No other RB strength of schedule improves as dramatically at Tampa Bay’s does for the rest of the season (though MJD and the pitiful Jaguars may present another RB buy-low opportunity, though my personal preference is to simply add Jordan Todman (more background on Todman from the Oracle here) and wait for MJD’s wheels to fall off).

Warren Buffet famously preached to be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy. Owners are fearful about Tampa Bay, and by extension, Dougie. Acquiring Dougie now when he’s at his cheapest is a move that could garner your championships.

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