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Updated WR Efficiency Numbers (Including SNF & MNF)

ericdecker

The table below is an update to the post from Monday that discussed efficiency numbers for WRs through 2 weeks. For a discussion of FPOP and thoughts on a few receivers see that post. The only thing to add is that for now AJ Green enjoys the most expected points out of any WR in the league. Andre Johnson has been targeted more but Green’s targets have been more valuable. Also of note from the MNF game is that Emmanuel Sanders’ targets have been more valuable than Antonio Brown’s thus far. That’s at least a little disconcerting if you’re a Brown owner (I am in one league). In terms of efficiency you can see that DeSean Jackson is above average this year and over his career on a per target basis. But Jackson has been 4X as efficient this year than he has been over his career. The Chip Kelly offense will I’m sure create some opportunities for Jackson but most non-San Diego DBs in the league have done a decent job keeping up with DJax essentially since 2011. I would look for DJax to come back to earth a little.

Here’s an example of how you can use FPOP to your benefit. If you take Eric Decker’s Expected Points and then add in his FPOP/target multiplied by his targets you’d get about 26 fantasy points that Decker would have scored this year if he were producing his career average efficiency. If you did the same exercise with Jordy Nelson you’d get about 22 points that Nelson would have scored if he were operating at his career efficiency. And yet Jordy right now has a lot more trade value than Decker. Could you trade Jordy for Decker along with something else, and then hope that Decker’s efficiency rebounds? It’s a thought. But the key is that you have to get more than Decker to make that trade work. Otherwise you’re giving away all of the equity you have in Jordy right now.

PLAYER TRGS RECS YDS TDS Expected Points Actual Points 2013 FPOP per Target Total FPOP YPT YPR Career FPOP per Target
A.J. Green 27 15 203 2 30.66 32.30 0.06 1.64 7.52 13.53 0.10
Julian Edelman 27 20 157 2 28.69 27.70 -0.04 -0.99 5.81 7.85 -0.11
Randall Cobb 22 16 236 2 28.03 35.60 0.34 7.57 10.73 14.75 0.32
Andre Johnson 29 20 222 0 27.19 22.20 -0.17 -4.99 7.66 11.10 0.08
Pierre Garcon 24 15 207 1 25.25 26.70 0.06 1.45 8.63 13.80 0.02
Kenbrell Thompkins 21 6 89 0 24.43 8.90 -0.74 -15.53 4.24 14.83 -0.74
Wes Welker 19 12 106 3 23.75 28.60 0.26 4.85 5.58 8.83 -0.04
Julio Jones 23 18 258 2 23.66 37.80 0.61 14.14 11.22 14.33 0.42
Cecil Shorts 25 11 133 0 22.83 13.30 -0.38 -9.53 5.32 12.09 0.12
DeSean Jackson 24 16 297 2 22.73 41.70 0.79 18.97 12.38 18.56 0.18
Tavon Austin 19 12 88 2 22.59 20.80 -0.09 -1.79 4.63 7.33 -0.09
Anquan Boldin 21 14 215 1 22.26 27.50 0.25 5.24 10.24 15.36 0.07
Eric Decker 20 11 119 0 22.05 11.90 -0.51 -10.15 5.95 10.82 0.22
Dez Bryant 21 13 163 1 21.93 22.30 0.02 0.37 7.76 12.54 0.36
Vincent Jackson 24 12 231 0 21.87 23.10 0.05 1.23 9.63 19.25 0.33
Brian Hartline 23 14 182 1 21.70 24.20 0.11 2.50 7.91 13.00 -0.08
DeAndre Hopkins 19 12 183 1 21.55 24.30 0.14 2.75 9.63 15.25 0.14
Greg Little 22 8 59 0 21.50 5.90 -0.71 -15.60 2.68 7.38 -0.24
Emmanuel Sanders 22 12 135 0 21.27 13.50 -0.35 -7.77 6.14 11.25 -0.14
Victor Cruz 19 13 236 3 21.11 41.60 1.08 20.49 12.42 18.15 0.36
Larry Fitzgerald 19 10 113 2 21.03 23.30 0.12 2.27 5.95 11.30 0.10
Brandon Marshall 20 15 217 2 20.85 33.70 0.64 12.85 10.85 14.47 -0.02
Steve Smith 19 11 103 1 20.39 16.30 -0.22 -4.09 5.42 9.36 0.16
Eddie Royal 14 10 114 5 20.04 41.40 1.53 21.36 8.14 11.40 -0.24
Austin Pettis 17 11 94 1 19.88 15.40 -0.26 -4.48 5.53 8.55 -0.26
Torrey Smith 21 11 177 0 19.81 17.70 -0.10 -2.11 8.43 16.09 0.27
Calvin Johnson 17 10 153 2 19.23 27.30 0.47 8.07 9.00 15.30 0.23
Steve Johnson 16 11 150 2 18.99 27.00 0.50 8.01 9.38 13.64 0.04
Davone Bess 18 10 85 0 18.43 8.50 -0.55 -9.93 4.72 8.50 -0.18
Jerricho Cotchery 16 7 93 1 17.92 15.30 -0.16 -2.62 5.81 13.29 -0.05
Ace Sanders 16 8 78 0 17.15 7.80 -0.58 -9.35 4.88 9.75 -0.58
Demaryius Thomas 17 10 210 2 16.64 33.00 0.96 16.36 12.35 21.00 0.33
Reggie Wayne 16 13 142 1 16.35 20.20 0.24 3.85 8.88 10.92 0.10
Ty Hilton 17 9 144 0 16.12 14.40 -0.10 -1.72 8.47 16.00 0.27
Stephen Hill 17 10 125 0 16.01 12.50 -0.21 -3.51 7.35 12.50 -0.14
Andre Roberts 17 11 133 0 15.97 13.30 -0.16 -2.67 7.82 12.09 -0.16
Kendall Wright 15 9 65 1 15.95 12.50 -0.23 -3.45 4.33 7.22 -0.21
Miles Austin 16 13 103 0 15.57 10.30 -0.33 -5.27 6.44 7.92 0.23
Mike Wallace 16 10 130 1 15.28 19.00 0.23 3.72 8.13 13.00 0.37
Jordy Nelson 14 10 196 3 15.25 37.60 1.60 22.35 14.00 19.60 0.48
Brandon Stokley 15 8 70 0 15.11 7.00 -0.54 -8.11 4.67 8.75 0.18
Michael Floyd 13 7 104 0 15.07 10.40 -0.36 -4.67 8.00 14.86 -0.21
Hakeem Nicks 15 9 197 0 14.94 19.70 0.32 4.76 13.13 21.89 0.20
Santana Moss 14 8 95 1 14.70 15.50 0.06 0.80 6.79 11.88 0.11
James Jones 14 11 178 0 14.61 17.80 0.23 3.19 12.71 16.18 0.54
Alshon Jeffery 13 6 53 0 14.47 5.30 -0.71 -9.17 4.08 8.83 -0.04
Mike Williams 14 6 61 1 14.47 12.10 -0.17 -2.37 4.36 10.17 0.00
Antonio Brown 16 11 128 0 14.20 12.80 -0.09 -1.40 8.00 11.64 -0.02
Danny Amendola 14 10 104 0 14.05 10.40 -0.26 -3.65 7.43 10.40 -0.35
Dwayne Bowe 14 8 86 1 14.02 14.60 0.04 0.58 6.14 10.75 0.04
Rueben Randle 15 8 115 0 13.96 11.50 -0.16 -2.46 7.67 14.38 0.16
Nate Burleson 14 13 123 0 13.86 12.30 -0.11 -1.56 8.79 9.46 0.03
Marlon Brown 12 8 110 2 13.62 23.00 0.78 9.38 9.17 13.75 0.78
Mohamed Sanu 13 9 59 0 12.89 5.90 -0.54 -6.99 4.54 6.56 0.03
Vincent Brown 11 6 39 1 12.74 9.90 -0.26 -2.84 3.55 6.50 0.01
Harry Douglas 11 8 136 0 12.73 13.60 0.08 0.87 12.36 17.00 -0.19
Marques Colston 13 9 131 1 12.60 19.10 0.50 6.50 10.08 14.56 0.23
Edmond Gates 12 3 59 0 12.47 5.90 -0.55 -6.57 4.92 19.67 -0.47
Chris Givens 11 7 132 0 12.30 13.20 0.08 0.90 12.00 18.86 0.14
Denarius Moore 9 5 43 1 12.28 10.30 -0.22 -1.98 4.78 8.60 0.09
Greg Jennings 13 8 117 0 11.70 11.70 0.00 0.00 9.00 14.63 0.27
Jerome Simpson 13 9 189 0 11.60 18.90 0.56 7.30 14.54 21.00 -0.07
Rod Streater 12 8 112 0 11.53 11.20 -0.03 -0.33 9.33 14.00 -0.03
Malcom Floyd 11 6 149 0 11.51 14.90 0.31 3.39 13.55 24.83 0.28
Leonard Hankerson 10 8 115 2 11.42 23.50 1.21 12.08 11.50 14.38 0.21
Brandon Gibson 12 8 88 0 11.17 8.80 -0.20 -2.37 7.33 11.00 -0.17
Nate Washington 12 7 96 0 11.14 9.60 -0.13 -1.54 8.00 13.71 0.09
Kyle Williams 12 7 75 0 10.90 7.50 -0.28 -3.40 6.25 10.71 0.00
Darrius Heyward-Bey 9 5 43 0 10.30 4.30 -0.67 -6.00 4.78 8.60 -0.12
Josh Morgan 11 6 90 0 9.97 9.00 -0.09 -0.97 8.18 15.00 -0.06
Aaron Dobson 10 3 56 1 9.92 11.60 0.17 1.68 5.60 18.67 0.17
Kenny Britt 11 5 43 0 9.80 4.30 -0.50 -5.50 3.91 8.60 0.24
Jason Avant 10 6 52 0 9.74 5.20 -0.45 -4.54 5.20 8.67 -0.11
Donnie Avery 9 4 49 1 9.53 10.90 0.15 1.37 5.44 12.25 -0.17
Riley Cooper 9 4 39 1 9.37 9.90 0.06 0.53 4.33 9.75 -0.08
Ted Ginn 9 4 72 1 9.11 13.20 0.45 4.09 8.00 18.00 -0.21
Lance Moore 8 3 38 0 8.70 3.80 -0.61 -4.90 4.75 12.67 0.15
Doug Baldwin 9 8 142 0 8.65 14.20 0.62 5.55 15.78 17.75 0.15
Sidney Rice 8 3 48 0 8.58 4.80 -0.47 -3.78 6.00 16.00 0.21
Golden Tate 9 5 70 0 8.38 7.00 -0.15 -1.38 7.78 14.00 0.04
Robert Woods 8 5 86 1 8.17 14.60 0.80 6.43 10.75 17.20 0.80
Travis Benjamin 9 4 66 0 8.11 6.60 -0.17 -1.51 7.33 16.50 0.10
Santonio Holmes 9 4 64 0 8.04 6.40 -0.18 -1.64 7.11 16.00 0.14
Brandon LaFell 6 4 13 0 7.17 1.30 -0.98 -5.87 2.17 3.25 0.00
Terrance Williams 7 5 60 0 6.91 6.00 -0.13 -0.91 8.57 12.00 -0.13
Roddy White 5 5 40 0 5.92 4.00 -0.38 -1.92 8.00 8.00 0.04
Kevin Ogletree 5 1 5 1 5.86 6.50 0.13 0.64 1.00 5.00 -0.03
Marvin Jones 6 4 42 0 5.61 4.20 -0.23 -1.41 7.00 10.50 -0.23
Kenny Stills 6 3 96 0 5.37 9.60 0.70 4.23 16.00 32.00 0.70
Aldrick Robinson 4 1 13 0 4.84 1.30 -0.89 -3.54 3.25 13.00 0.80
Jarius Wright 4 1 21 0 4.48 2.10 -0.60 -2.38 5.25 21.00 0.01
Kris Durham 4 1 11 0 4.42 1.10 -0.83 -3.32 2.75 11.00 -0.29
Brice Butler 4 3 18 0 4.26 1.80 -0.62 -2.46 4.50 6.00 -0.62
Kerry Taylor 4 3 40 0 4.18 4.00 -0.05 -0.18 10.00 13.33 -0.05
Dwayne Harris 4 3 16 0 4.10 1.60 -0.63 -2.50 4.00 5.33 -0.17
T.J. Graham 4 1 8 0 3.98 0.80 -0.79 -3.18 2.00 8.00 -0.34
Jacoby Ford 4 3 14 0 3.89 1.40 -0.62 -2.49 3.50 4.67 0.02
Jacoby Jones 4 3 24 0 3.71 2.40 -0.33 -1.31 6.00 8.00 0.08
Brian Quick 3 2 31 0 3.65 3.10 -0.18 -0.55 10.33 15.50 -0.15
Jaron Brown 4 2 25 0 3.64 2.50 -0.28 -1.14 6.25 12.50 -0.28
Junior Hemingway 2 2 13 1 3.64 7.30 1.83 3.66 6.50 6.50 1.83
Jeremy Kerley 4 3 45 0 3.57 4.50 0.23 0.93 11.25 15.00 -0.08
Griff Whalen 3 2 28 0 3.28 2.80 -0.16 -0.48 9.33 14.00 -0.16
Cordarrelle Patterson 3 3 24 0 3.21 2.40 -0.27 -0.81 8.00 8.00 -0.27
Tori Gurley 3 1 15 0 3.14 1.50 -0.55 -1.64 5.00 15.00 -0.55
Earl Bennett 3 3 25 0 2.94 2.50 -0.15 -0.44 8.33 8.33 -0.05
Stephen Burton 3 2 23 0 2.89 2.30 -0.20 -0.59 7.67 11.50 -0.22
Derek Moye 1 1 1 1 2.81 6.10 3.29 3.29 1.00 1.00 3.29
Patrick Edwards 3 3 30 0 2.77 3.00 0.08 0.23 10.00 10.00 0.08
Keenan Allen 3 2 34 0 2.70 3.40 0.23 0.70 11.33 17.00 0.23
Josh Boyce 2 0 0 0 2.70 0.00 -1.35 -2.70 0.00 NA -1.35
Mike Brown 3 1 14 0 2.62 1.40 -0.41 -1.22 4.67 14.00 -0.52
Andre Caldwell 2 2 64 1 2.09 12.40 5.15 10.31 32.00 32.00 -0.28
Damian Williams 2 1 13 0 1.89 1.30 -0.30 -0.59 6.50 13.00 -0.17
Jermaine Kearse 2 2 49 1 1.85 10.90 4.52 9.05 24.50 24.50 0.59
Armanti Edwards 2 0 0 0 1.76 0.00 -0.88 -1.76 0.00 NA -0.05
Keshawn Martin 2 2 37 0 1.74 3.70 0.98 1.96 18.50 18.50 -0.53
Marlon Moore 2 1 6 0 1.70 0.60 -0.55 -1.10 3.00 6.00 0.20
Jeremy Ebert 1 1 5 0 1.04 0.50 -0.54 -0.54 5.00 5.00 -0.54
Stephen Williams 1 0 0 0 0.98 0.00 -0.98 -0.98 0.00 NA -0.54
Robert Meachem 1 0 0 0 0.89 0.00 -0.89 -0.89 0.00 NA 0.58
Marquise Goodwin 1 1 0 0 0.87 0.00 -0.87 -0.87 0.00 0.00 -0.87
Ryan Spadola 1 0 0 0 0.87 0.00 -0.87 -0.87 0.00 NA -0.87
Lestar Jean 1 0 0 0 0.87 0.00 -0.87 -0.87 0.00 NA 0.58
Jerrel Jernigan 1 0 0 0 0.82 0.00 -0.82 -0.82 0.00 NA -0.79

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