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QB Efficiency Numbers – Week 8 (All Games)

AaronRodgers

The table below summarizes my fantasy usage metric (Expected Points) along with my fantasy efficiency metric (Fantasy Points Over Par – higher numbers are more efficient). Every play has an expected fantasy point value and then the difference between what actually happened and the expectation is FPOP.

Some thoughts after 8 weeks:

  • Aaron Rodgers has dealt with one of his key receivers leaving in free agency and a myriad of injuries to his other receivers. And yet his efficiency on the season is right at his career level. He’s probably the best QB in the NFL.
  • I’m sure at one point it would have been acceptable to call Ben Roethlisberger elite although he hasn’t looked it this year. The decision making formula that settles on whether a player is elite or not goes something like ELITENESS = WINNING PERCENTAGE IGNORING THE EFFECT OF DEFENSE + PASSING YARDS/TDS IGNORING THE EFFECT OF RECEIVERS
  • Terrell Pryor’s run last week pushed his rushing FPOP up to Robert Griffin levels (recall that Griffin also had a very long run last year)
  • Jake Locker has actually been above average on a per attempt basis (as a fantasy QB) both as a runner and as a passer for his career.
  • Jason Campbell’s debut last week was actually pretty efficient (or lucky) and against a pretty good defense.
PLAYER ATTS COMPS YDS YA TDS INTS RYDS RTDS Exp Pts Actual Pts passFPOP per Att rushFPOP per Att Total FPOP Career Pass FPOP per Att Career Rush FPOP per Att
Peyton Manning 333 237 2916 8.76 29 6 -28 1 188.83 252.84 0.24 -0.7 64.01 0.1 -0.22
Matthew Stafford 338 211 2616 7.74 16 6 23 2 166.62 186.94 0.06 0.01 20.32 0 0.16
Matt Ryan 305 205 2221 7.28 14 7 22 0 159.28 147.04 -0.04 0.02 -12.24 0.03 -0.14
Alex Smith 286 169 1792 6.27 9 4 251 1 154.6 139.78 -0.05 0.01 -14.82 -0.03 -0.04
Tom Brady 307 171 1822 5.93 9 6 19 0 149.88 107.78 -0.09 -0.57 -42.1 0.08 -0.3
Sam Bradford 262 159 1689 6.45 14 4 32 0 139.02 132.76 0.01 -0.62 -6.26 -0.06 -0.22
Tony Romo 295 195 2215 7.51 18 5 26 0 137.56 171.2 0.13 -0.26 33.64 0.11 -0.15
Aaron Rodgers 249 167 2190 8.8 15 4 107 0 135.34 165.3 0.15 -0.29 29.96 0.15 0.14
Robert Griffin 268 158 1878 7.01 9 8 220 0 133.74 126.12 -0.04 0.07 -7.62 0.07 0.46
Drew Brees 271 183 2293 8.46 19 5 35 1 130.69 186.22 0.21 -0.05 55.53 0.07 -0.24
Andy Dalton 280 183 2240 8 16 7 74 0 129.1 163 0.13 -0.13 33.9 0.03 -0.01
Philip Rivers 249 184 2159 8.67 15 5 32 0 126.41 154.56 0.13 -0.44 28.15 0.09 -0.34
Russell Wilson 205 125 1627 7.94 13 4 336 0 122.17 155.68 0.16 0 33.51 0.15 0.17
Eli Manning 307 171 2167 7.06 10 15 38 0 120.39 110.48 -0.03 0.08 -9.91 0 -0.22
Carson Palmer 284 174 1913 6.74 10 14 15 0 119.87 100.02 -0.05 -0.39 -19.85 0.02 -0.25
Ben Roethlisberger 260 172 1925 7.4 8 7 49 0 119.78 107.9 -0.05 0.08 -11.88 0.06 -0.05
Jay Cutler 226 147 1654 7.32 12 7 81 0 118.13 120.26 0.01 0.01 2.13 0.01 -0.01
Ryan Tannehill 262 155 1760 6.72 11 9 62 0 117.87 113.6 0 -0.27 -4.27 -0.03 -0.04
Cam Newton 202 131 1552 7.68 12 5 233 3 115.82 153.38 0.13 0.23 37.56 0.05 0.33
Joe Flacco 269 160 1917 7.13 8 8 39 0 115.6 104.58 -0.04 -0.1 -11.02 0.04 -0.2
Chad Henne 218 132 1449 6.65 3 5 18 0 114.24 64.76 -0.21 -0.42 -49.48 -0.09 -0.07
Andrew Luck 226 138 1582 7 10 3 182 3 109.8 143.48 0.05 0.78 33.68 0.01 0.4
Geno Smith 255 150 1869 7.33 8 13 154 2 107.19 116.16 -0.02 0.43 8.97 -0.02 0.43
Colin Kaepernick 198 113 1584 8 9 5 291 3 103.09 145.46 0.09 0.5 42.37 0.09 0.51
Matt Schaub 233 150 1552 6.66 8 9 5 0 96.79 84.58 -0.05 0.06 -12.21 0.03 -0.32
Brandon Weeden 195 103 1153 5.91 5 6 37 0 92.75 62.82 -0.14 -0.25 -29.93 -0.08 -0.08
Terrelle Pryor 157 99 1148 7.31 5 7 395 1 84.76 102.42 -0.03 0.44 17.66 -0.02 0.43
Michael Vick 141 77 1218 8.64 5 3 277 2 77.7 107.42 0.08 0.53 29.72 -0.01 0.4
Mike Glennon 181 106 997 5.51 6 3 18 0 77.35 65.68 -0.06 -0.2 -11.67 -0.06 -0.2
Jake Locker 152 94 1065 7.01 8 1 117 1 71.7 98.3 0.12 0.49 26.6 0.04 0.49
E.J. Manuel 150 85 984 6.56 5 3 102 0 71.69 68.56 0.01 -0.18 -3.13 0.01 -0.18
Christian Ponder 121 73 836 6.91 2 5 115 3 59.64 62.94 -0.12 0.91 3.3 -0.06 0.3
Josh Freeman 147 63 761 5.18 2 4 20 0 55.92 34.44 -0.15 0.08 -21.48 -0.01 0
Thaddeus Lewis 103 62 652 6.33 3 2 35 1 47.29 46.58 0 -0.07 -0.71 0 -0.08
Brian Hoyer 96 57 615 6.41 5 3 14 0 43.03 45 0.03 -0.18 1.97 -0.01 -0.26
Blaine Gabbert 86 42 481 5.59 1 7 32 0 41.63 13.44 -0.3 -0.25 -28.19 -0.12 -0.29
Nick Foles 90 52 622 6.91 6 0 32 1 40.8 64.08 0.23 0.28 23.28 -0.01 0.23
Ryan Fitzpatrick 79 41 525 6.65 2 4 78 1 39.3 36.8 -0.1 0.39 -2.5 -0.04 0.05
Matt Cassel 69 48 489 7.09 3 2 13 0 27.33 31.86 0.07 -0.07 4.53 -0.02 -0.02
Kellen Clemens 35 17 177 5.06 0 2 11 0 18.47 4.18 -0.42 0.17 -14.29 -0.19 -0.04
Matt Barkley 46 28 287 6.24 0 4 0 0 15.65 3.48 -0.26 NA -12.17 -0.26 NA
Case Keenum 25 15 271 10.84 1 0 10 0 13.46 16.84 0.24 -0.86 3.38 0.24 -0.86
Jason Campbell 40 23 299 7.47 2 0 17 0 13.38 23.66 0.25 0.16 10.28 -0.02 0.09
T.J. Yates 22 15 113 5.14 0 2 -9 0 13.31 -0.38 -0.56 -1.3 -13.69 -0.16 0.08
Matt Flynn 34 22 246 7.24 1 1 4 0 13.2 13.24 0.04 -0.39 0.04 0.07 -0.26
Josh McCown 20 14 204 10.2 1 0 33 0 10.11 16.46 0.25 0.34 6.35 -0.04 0.06
Jeff Tuel 20 8 80 4 0 1 0 0 5.43 1.2 -0.21 NA -4.23 -0.21 NA
Tarvaris Jackson 8 7 129 16.12 1 0 3 1 5.41 16.46 0.95 1.14 11.05 0 0.09
Matt Simms 7 3 17 2.43 0 0 35 0 3.51 4.18 -0.22 0.75 0.67 -0.22 0.75
Kirk Cousins 9 5 48 5.33 0 2 1 0 3.42 -1.98 -0.57 -0.28 -5.4 0.1 -0.43
Colt McCoy 1 1 13 13 0 0 -3 0 2.83 0.22 0.27 -0.96 -2.61 -0.06 -0.07
Matt Hasselbeck 3 2 37 12.33 0 0 0 0 1.81 1.48 -0.11 NA -0.33 -0.01 -0.04
Brock Osweiler 3 2 10 3.33 0 0 3 0 1.79 0.7 -0.19 -0.27 -1.09 -0.21 -0.52
Derek Anderson 0 0 0 NA 0 0 -4 0 1.55 -0.4 NA -0.49 -1.95 -0.07 -0.07
Josh Johnson 0 0 0 NA 0 0 17 0 1.13 1.7 NA 0.19 0.57 -0.17 0.22
Curtis Painter 4 2 16 4 0 1 0 0 1.09 -1.36 -0.61 NA -2.45 -0.13 -0.18
Charlie Whitehurst 0 0 0 NA 0 0 -3 0 1.06 -0.3 NA -0.45 -1.36 -0.14 0.02
Chase Daniel 0 0 0 NA 0 0 -4 0 1.03 -0.4 NA -0.36 -1.43 -0.12 -0.29

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