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Prospecting for Tight Ends: Jace Amaro
jaceamaro
collegesportsblog.dallasnews.com

By now you should know the drill, but to catch up on this TE series, and the research that went into it, check my author page for all the details and definitions. Also, click here to see my Eric Ebron profile.

Benchmarks

This first table is just for reference. Using my database of TEs from 2006-2013, I created three hypothetical TEs. “Top Hit” is the average of the top quarter of successful (Hit) TEs. In other words, the best of the best. “Average Hit” is the average of all TEs in the Hit cohort. “Top Miss” is the average of the top third of unsuccesssful TEs, or the “best of the rest”. I included the hypothetical best of the misses in order to help illustrate where a given player might fall short.

Name Ht Wt BMI 40 yd Agility Explosion HASS YPT TgtPct Pk Rookie Age BestDR
Top Hit 76.0 249.4 30.4 4.63 11.28 153.00 115.38 10.1 17.1 76 22.84 0.26
Ave Hit 76.7 251 30.0 4.66 11.41 151.62 113.93 9.40 18.6 78 23.20 0.23
Top Miss 76.5 252.4 30.4 4.73 11.51 147.8 107.58 8.7 14.4 182 23.7 0.198

 

Let’s take a minute to look at this table, since the Hit values above represent the core of what we’re looking for. In the Height / Weight / BMI columns, you’ll notice no real difference. But in the other athletic measurable areas (40, Agility, Explosion, and HASS), the differences are quite clear. The right half of the table has some college production measurements. A player’s Target Percentage (percent of team passing targets) appears to be a key indicator. Dominator Rating is likewise important, and rookie age is also important. So if you want to just pick out the most important variables, look for:

  • Best DR 0.23 or higher
  • Rookie Age 23 or younger
  • Target Percentage 17% or higher
  • HASS 114 or higher

Here are Amaro’s comparables:

Jace Amaro Comparables

NameHtWtBMI40 ydAgilityExplosionHASSYPTTgtPctRookie AgeBestDR
J.Gresham7726130.94.6611.6148118.4014.6419.4022.500.23
Top Hit76.00249.4330.364.6311.28153.00115.3810.0917.1422.840.26
S.Chandler7927030.44.7811.34141114.748.3617.8022.400.24
Ave Hit76.725129.954.6611.41151.62113.939.4018.6023.200.23
J.Amaro7726531.44.7411.72151112.28.8922.2022.510.232
D.Sims7726231.14.7511.88147109.957.8216.0022.900.21
D.Strong7726531.44.7811.22135108.408.0716.5022.600.21
A.Fasano76255314.7200107.729.0014.5022.700.10
Top Miss76.5252.430.44.7311.51147.8107.588.714.423.70.198
C.Clay7524530.64.6911.22151.5104.1910.8218.3022.880.17
B.Celek7626131.84.7911.51145103.888.4418.0022.900.18

 

The first thing that stands out about Amaro is his size – 265 pounds. That makes him one of the heavier TEs in my database. In fact, he’s similar in size to one Rob Gronkowski:

Name Ht Wt BMI
Jace Amaro 77 265 31.4
Rob Gronkowski 78 265 30.6

Unfortunately for Amaro, the Gronkonian comparisons go downhill from there:

Name 40 yd Agility Explosion HASS YPT TgtPct Pk Rookie Age BestDR
Amaro 4.74 11.72 151 112.2 8.89 22.20 22.51 0.232
Gronkowski 4.68 11.65 152.5 120.45 13.82 18.20 42.00 21.70 0.48

Other than target percentage (which is important), Gronk handily bests Amaro in every measure. Leaving aside that bit of wistful thinking, Amaro’s comps are a mixed bag. Athletically, he falls below the Top and Average Hits in every category – and below the Top Misses in 40 and Agility – and his yards/target would be in the lower third of successful NFL TEs... I don’t think he’s as athletic as he’s often made out to be.

On the other hand, his production metrics are very solid. His target percentage is sixth best in my database of 200 TEs, and is bested only by Aaron Hernandez, Marcedes Lewis, Vernon Davis, Gavin Escobar and Michael Egnew. His rookie age is suitably young and his DR is solidly in the “Hit” range as well, which is a big plus.

Conclusion

For me, a lot of Amaro’s desirability as a dynasty prospect will depend on where he’s drafted. I definitely think he’s a solid prospect, but I’m more excited about Eric Ebron for example. So I’ll reserve judgment until the draft, but I can’t see Amaro passing Ebron in my rankings. To start your own TE research, check out the College Receiver App, and the TE Sim App.

 

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