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Adrian Peterson, Running Backs, and Outliers

adrianpeterson

Via Rotoworld Fantasy Fallout | Exploring Running Back Size

Now let me just address the criticism sure to come to everyone’s minds: BUT ADRIAN PETERSON IS 6’1”! Yes, that’s true. As is the fact that Arian Foster ran a 4.68 in the 40-yard dash, Jerry Rice was also quite slow, Warren Sapp dominated inside despite shorter-than-average arms and lots of other cases of players becoming exceptions to the rule.

My goal isn’t to get every prediction correct, but just to tilt the odds a little bit.

Here’s an effort to analyze RB height as it pertains to fantasy success. I enjoyed this article for how straightforward it was in admitting that this is just one piece of a puzzle and that analyzing RBs is a process that’s still in the works. I’ve been a bit down on RB projections lately because whether it’s speed scores, agility scores, NQBDR, explosion index, draft slot, college production or various other metrics it seems like the list of best ever scores for any metric is littered with a bunch of guys I wouldn’t have wanted on my team. That’s not encouraging, and makes me want to just not draft any RBs at all. However, I do have some hope for a few new models here on rotoviz that attempt to combine these metrics to screen prospects. In light of these new efforts, every new metric takes on additional meaning as this may be the piece to help fine tune a model based on combining it with other measures. Similar to how you can’t find a number 1 receiver unless you draft a number 1 receiver…you can’t find a better method of projecting RBs unless you look for a better method of projecting RBs. There will always be exceptions and you won’t always be right, but you can start to be more right as Jonathan Bales points out in his analysis. Remember, you can always use our Apps to do some of your own research

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