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Kenny Britt and Arbitrage Possibilities
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Via Fantasy Football Metrics – RC Fischer Blog | The Dynasty-Fantasy Football Value of Kenny Britt to the Rams…

News broke yesterday that Kenny Britt signed with the St. Louis Rams. I mean, I guess.

I kind of want to just stop writing now and leave that quote from RC Fischer (of fantasyfootballmetrics.com) as the only comment necessary. Doesn’t that perfectly encapsulate how everyone feels about Kenny Britt? Are you hearing a groundswell of demand for updated Kenny Britt projections? I view the Rams as a pretty neutral destination for Britt. Not as good as the Patriots or Panthers would have been, but not as bad as a place like Oakland.

However, in evaluating all of these possible landing spots, I’m only ever thinking of Britt’s trade value rather than what he’ll do on the field. Reuniting with the coach that drafted him makes a nice story and potentially sidesteps some of Britt’s character concerns (I mean, if Jeff Fisher still believes in him…). Britt is a RotoViz kind of WR. He’s big and fast. He broke out at a young age in college. He has the 7th best Phenom Index score of all-time. He’s still only 26. All of this makes him an MFL10 bargain and the Number 1 Post Hype Super Sleeper. I don’t blame anyone for holding out hope on Kenny Britt, but the chance to acquire him as a cheap gamble is probably past. If you own him already then RC Fischer has advice on what to do with him. He also has some views on the rest of the Rams WRs including Chris Givens.

Chris Givens is helped by a strong #1 WR, if Britt can be that #1. Sam Bradford has often made heavy use out of the smaller receiving option. Danny Amendola and Mark Clayton had some unbelievable games with Bradford, but neither the WR or QB could stay healthy. Givens, more than Tavon Austin, could be ‘that guy’

Shawn Siegele, Davis Mattek, James Todd and the Fantasy Douche  all had positive things to say about Givens last offseason. The Rams offense has been fertile ground for speculation with Bryan Fontaine declaring that Sam Bradford could throw for a lot of TDs last year (His pre-injury pace was 32 TDs and somebody had to catch them). Mr. RotoViz, Zac Stacy, eventually won the backfield, but not before Matthew Freedman completed an epic five part miniseries on the possibilities.

The sheer volume of RotoViz content on the Rams last offseason just shows how much opportunity exists there to be claimed. Here’s last season’s analysis of their pass catchers using the wide receiver apps. Stedman Bailey is a RotoViz favoriteTavon Austin is not, and Brian Quick still has potential. Kenny Britt’s signing doesn’t really change any of those things. If he still struggles with injuries and inconsistency then these same players are still competing for touches and if Britt does finally break out then that still likely shifts coverage and opens things up for a guy like Givens, as RC Fischer predicted above. My advice would be to pick whatever Rams receiver you happen to like the best and then use Britt’s signing as cover to land them on the cheap in the classic RotoViz-approved arbitrage play of taking whatever the cheapest option is when player situations are unknown.

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RC Fischer writes a blog on fantasyfootballmetrics.com and compiles rookie reports for its sister site collegefootballmetrics.com. There are a lot of similarities between his efforts and what you’ll see here on RotoViz. He’s interested in data-driven analysis and he also covers defensive players and even offensive linemen if you’re into that sort of thing. He divides his receivers into small or big varieties (just like RotoViz) and his running backs into “small” or “power” backs which is similar to Shawn Siegele’s Three Draftable RB Profiles.

I check his blog everyday, but I’m disappointed that this particular entry didn’t include his trademark writing tic of referring to his player model as “the computer.” Like this actual example from a different blog entry (emphasis mine): “When Torrey Smith was ripped in the local football media for dropping passes in practices, and never saw action in his first two active NFL games…I was ready to fire the computer for daring to humiliate me. When Torrey Smith hit for 3 TDs in a quarter in his third NFL game, I bought the computer roses and a box of candy.” I always picture him sitting around with a giant anthropomorphic Commodore 64 sharing a romantic dinner and discussing their love of Nick Foles.

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