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Second Year WR Projections: Round Two
Lesters Legends
Lesters Legends

This is part two of a series that began here, with a rest of career projection for 2013’s first round WRs. Check it out to get the background on methodology and table formats. Let’s get started on round two.

History Lesson

Looking back to 2000, here’s how WRs drafted in the second round have fared:

Set R G R GS R Rec R Yds R msYds R TD R FPG ROC FPG % Increase
All 12.14 5.0 26.4 347.5 0.11 2.1 4.3 5.99 29%
Hit 14.50 9.1 48.9 708.9 0.21 3.9 8.0 12.87 38%

If you compare this table to the table of first round WRs, you’ll notice that the spreads between the “All” and “Hit” cohorts is bigger across the board here. Theoretically, this should make it a bit easier to spot a second round hit/miss. It’s also worth noting that second round hits go on to have a rest of career fantasy points/game (ROC FPG) rate that is less than 2 points/game less than first round hits, making these players very desirable targets. Sticking to just second round WRs, the average ROC FPG spread between the hits and misses is over 6 points/game, which means you’ll want to avoid the downside of a second round miss just as much as you’ll want to pursue the upside of a second round hit. We’ll explore this in more detail a little later.

Second City

Here are the second round WRs drafted in 2013:

Player R Games R GS R Rec R Yds R msYds R TD R FPG
Robert Woods 14 13 40 587 0.19 3 6.9
Aaron Dobson 12 9 37 519 0.13 4 7.9
Justin Hunter 14 0 18 354 0.10 4 4.9
  • Right off the bat, it looks like two potential hits (Woods and Dobson) and one potential miss (Hunter).
  • Woods put up strong numbers – arguably better than first rounders Cordarelle Patterson and Tavon Austin. His Games and Games Started numbers are solid. The rest of his numbers kind of fall in that area between the hits and the run of the mill second rounders. But his raw receptions and market share of receiving yards are both pretty close to the threshold, so I’d be willing to gamble on him becoming a second round hit.
  • Besides being really close to the hit level, Woods has one more appealing attribute: his ADP. In dynasty start ups he’s going as WR 55. In redraft you can find him hanging out at WR 58 (pick 141). That’s after every first and second round WR from last year. So basically Woods has a decent shot at putting up ROC FPG similar to a top 20% first round WR, at a fraction of the cost.
  • The two main factors depressing Woods’ ADP, as I see it, are the QB situation in Buffalo, and the fact that the Bills just acquired Mike Williams to go along with Steve Johnson. From a dynasty perspective, I think that just amounts to a buying opportunity. There’s no guarantee either Johnson or Williams are long term road blocks to playing time, and good WRs can produce even if their QB isn’t elite. For that matter, the QB situation in Buffalo could change too.
  • Switching to Aaron Dobson, his numbers are actually just as impressive as Woods’, since he produced them in two fewer games.
  • Dobson is valued similarly to Woods (WR 46 in dynasty start ups, WR 52 in redraft), likely for similar reasons. Like Woods, Dobson has lots of other WRs with whom to compete (Amendola, Edelman, LaFell, Boyce, Thompkins, and maybe even Mark Harrison). There’s also the idea out there that Tom Brady may be nearing the end of the line as an elite QB.
  • But how much of that concern is really warranted, especially in dynasty? Amendola seems to be chronically injured, Edelman will be 28 this year, LaFell has yet to establish himself, and the rest are lower rated and lower producing prospects.
  • For this season, the WR Sim App likes Dobson better than Woods. Here’s his projection:
Dobson Standard Half PPR PPR
Low 3.6 4.9 6.3
Median 7.7 10 11.9
High 10.1 12.3 14.5
  • That brings us to the third member of last year’s second round: Justin Hunter. Ironically, he’s being valued quite a bit higher than Woods and Dobson.
  • Hunter is currently going as the 36th WR in dynasty start ups, and the 44th in redraft. So clearly the expectations for him are quite a bit higher than for the other two, but I’m not sure why. He has a clearer path to playing time I guess, but is the QB situation in Tennessee any better?
  • More importantly, his rookie production puts him pretty squarely in the “JAG” category. He produced less than half the receptions and market share of receiving yards as Woods did, and didn’t do much better vs. Dobson- despite having two more games played.
  • Kendall Wright is the best WR in Tennessee, but against a field of Nate Washington (30 years old), Kenny Britt (wtf), and Damian Williams (former third round pick), Hunter managed zero starts. Britt had three, Williams one. Hmm.
  • The WR Sim App is also not very sanguine on Hunter’s 2014:
Hunter Standard Half PPR PPR
Low 2.9 3.7 4.4
Median 5.3 6.5 7.8
High 6.9 8.5 9.6
  • The actionable stuff here is fairly obvious, I think. Let someone else take Hunter. If you’ve got him, try to capitalize on his current popularity and flip him for something better.
  • For the rest, just play the RotoViz arbitrage game. For example, by passing on Hunter in a dynasty start up, you could land any number of solid players, including Jordan Reed, Allen Robinson, Cecil Shorts, and Vernon Davis, then still pick up Dobson or Woods, who arguably have bigger upside both short and long term.
  • As for Woods and Dobson, I’d say there’s a good argument that their long term production upside is as good as Patterson or Austin. And the cost is less. Remember, Patterson is the 10th WR drafted in dynasty start ups, Austin the 35th. (In redraft, they’re 14th and 39th respectively). Compared to Woods (55 dynasty, 58 redraft) and Dobson (48 dynasty, 52 redraft) that’s an easy choice (or trade) to make in my opinion.

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