revolutionary tools.  groundbreaking articles.  proven results.

Did the Devaluation of QBs Continue in the 2014 NFL Draft?


Back in April, I did a little study that confirmed my suspicions that QBs are being devalued in the NFL Draft. I decided to do a little follow-up bookkeeping now that the 2014 NFL Draft is over. Below, I’ve included the table detailing draft picks by year from that article, and added the information for 2014, in bold:

Year # Selected Average Pick #
First Round 3 7.66
First Two 4 16.75
First Three * *
First Round 2 13
First Two 3 24.67
First Three 4 39.75
First Round 4 7.75
First Two 6 17
First Three 7 25.14
First Round 4 8.25
First Two 5 18
First Three 7 36.14
First Round 1 16
First Two 2 27.5
First Three 3 42.66
First Round 3 19
First Two 5 31
First Three * *

If you need a refresher, here’s the QBs and the overall pick used to draft them: Blake Bortles (3), Johnny Manziel (22), Teddy Bridgewater (32), Derek Carr (36), and Jimmy Garoppolo (62).

You’ll notice that the first round average1 is still trending consistently downward2 and so is the 2nd round average. Admittedly, we’re dealing with a small sample here, so if you’re not convinced by the overall trend I don’t blame you. But the difference between the time period from 2009-2012 and the last two years is clearly significant.

I think the really telling factor is the quality of the QBs. The QBs in 2012, a historically good group, were drafted later than the QBs in 2011, a group defined by its plethora of busts. This year’s group of QB prospects were really quite good, and Johnny Manziel may be an all-time great prospect, but they were still drafted later on average than all other years in this sample.

Again, the advantage to be had here is that there is no mainstream narrative about the devaluation of QBs like there is for RBs. Draft position is perhaps the single largest factor many people use in their personal QB evaluations. I’ve already heard people say that this is a mediocre QB class, even though that couldn’t be further from the truth. People think since none of them went with the first overall pick, none must be that good. People think since they didn’t really differentiate themselves from each other to form a clear hierarchy, none must be that good. This ignores the fact that Bortles, Bridgewater, and Manziel are completely different kinds of prospects. Steak, ice cream, and back rubs don’t lend themselves to a clear hierarchy either, but I’d be happy to have any of them.

Hopefully, the top three QBs will all fall further than they should in various formats. Hopefully, you’ll take advantage of the market inefficiency.

  1. Average meaning mean.  (back)
  2. The abysmal QB class of 2010 is the lone exception. The QBs: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy.  (back)

recent and related...

in case you missed it...

College Football DFS Main Slate: Week 11

Welcome to college football DFS for Week 11 and another main slate take down. This is your one stop shop for Cash and GPP plays for the main slate of this crazy CFB weekend! If you’ve been following along this season, we’ve had some crazy high hit rates on our

Read More

Week 10 Yahoo! DFS Picks

Identifying my Week 10 NFL DFS picks was easier than it’s ever been thanks to the continued work of our apps development team. The NFL Stat Explorer, the DFS Lineup Optimizer, and our world-famous Game Splits App are three windows I never close on my screen. Let’s build a plan

Read More

Week 10 Primetime Slate DFS Breakdown

Who are the best plays for the Week 10 DFS primetime slate on DraftKings and FanDuel? Tyler Loechner runs through notes on the primetime short slate featuring SNF/MNF games.1 DSF Week 10 Primetime Slate DFS Week 10 Primetime Slate theory thoughts: The games on this slate might not have “shootout”

Read More

Week 11 Waiver Wire Advice: Top Targets At Each Position

Looking for Week 10 waiver wire advice for fantasy football? You’ve come to the right place. We’ll give you some of the top targets at each position so that when you submit a waiver claim, you do it with confidence. This article will run through the top players available in

Read More

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.