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Mind the Gap: Using ADP To Create a RB Typology

 

Hat tip to @MattHarmon for the “Typology” terminology. This exercise builds on some work done last year. First, The Douche presented “The Shonn Greene All Stars,” which suggests that even bad RBs have value if they’re the only option available to their team. Later, I tried in a rather convoluted way to use the ADP Gap between a team’s RBs as a tool to identify desirable fantasy RB handcuffs. Today I’m going to revisit that idea in a little more structured fashion.

First, the methodology. I took the mid-August ADP data1 for the past three seasons from My Fantasy League. I chose mid-August because by then most backfield situations have a reasonable amount of clarity. Then I compared the ADP for a team’s highest-drafted RB to the team’s next-drafted RB and identified the average ADP gap. Then I divided all the RBs into one of 4 categories, based on whether their ADP Gap was larger or smaller than the average gap for all backfield combos:2

  • Large Gap RB1 – think LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson. High draft picks who dominate touches and are expected to produce a lot of points
  • Large Gap RB2 – think Bryce Brown, Knile Davis, etc. The backup to the stud Large Gap RB1. Barely sees the field. The only value is if the RB in front of them is lost to injury.
  • Small Gap RB1 – think Reggie Bush or Deangelo Williams. The lead back in a timeshare or backfield where its not clear who the “starter” will be, where both RBs are expected to have value, or in a backfield with injury/performance concerns.
  • Small Gap RB2 – think Joique Bell or Jonathan Stewart. The backup to the above. Sees the field a lot, regardless of the performance of the small gap RB1.

My theory here is that ADP represents the “wisdom of the crowd”. The Large Gap RB1 is a player about whom there is near-universal agreement that they will not only dominate the team’s RB touches, but be really productive with those touches. The Small Gap RBs represent collective uncertainty. Whether the uncertainty stems from unclear roles, injury, or past performance concerns, the crowd isn’t clear which back to own.

Setting the Table

The following tables present the backfield combos. I didn’t include the specific ADP for each player, since that wasn’t relevant, beyond determining which combos had a larger or smaller than average ADP gap. To keep things simple, I’m also presenting just the PPR fantasy points/game (FPG) for each player. I’m not accounting for injuries, final seasonal ranks, etc. Careful observers will also note that not every RB is accounted for. In some cases, only one RB per team had an ADP within the top 100 RBs. In those cases I concluded only one RB was drafted from that team, and excluded that player. Finally, in some cases, a team had 3 RBs. I’ve only analyzed the top two by ADP.

Large ADP Gap

YearRB1FPGRB2FPG
2011Turner, Michael ATL RB14.6Snelling, Jason ATL RB4.3
2011Rice, Ray BAL RB23.3Williams, Ricky BAL RB4.9
2011Forte, Matt CHI RB18.7Barber, Marion CHI RB8
2011Benson, Cedric CIN RB11.1Scott, Bernard CIN RB4.6
2011Hillis, Peyton CLE RB11.2Hardesty, Montario CLE RB5.3
2011Jones, Felix DAL RB9.9Murray, DeMarco DAL RB11.2
2011Best, Jahvid DET RB18.8Leshoure, Mikel DET RB*0
2011Foster, Arian HOU RB23.8Tate, Ben HOU RB9.4
2011Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB19.2Jennings, Rashad JAC RB*0
2011Charles, Jamaal KCC RB9.5Jones, Thomas KCC RB3.6
2011McFadden, Darren OAK RB18Bush, Michael OAK RB14
2011McCoy, LeSean PHI RB22Brown, Ronnie PHI RB1.2
2011Gore, Frank SFO RB12.3Hunter, Kendall SFO RB5.9
2011Johnson, Chris TEN RB14.2Ringer, Javon TEN RB5.9
2012McCoy, LeSean PHI RB17.1Lewis, Dion PHI RB2.9
2012Johnson, Chris TEN RB13.7Ringer, Javon TEN RB*2.8
2012Rice, Ray BAL RB17.7Pierce, Bernard BAL RB4.7
2012McFadden, Darren OAK RB13Goodson, Mike OAK RB5.8
2012Richardson, Trent CLE RB17Hardesty, Montario CLE RB3.7
2012Mathews, Ryan SDC RB*11.7Brown, Ronnie SDC RB7.7
2012Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB17.1Turbin, Robert SEA RB4.8
2012Greene, Shonn NYJ RB11.8Powell, Bilal NYJ RB7.1
2012Murray, DeMarco DAL RB15.4Jones, Felix DAL RB7.7
2012Green-Ellis, BenJarvus CIN RB11.9Scott, Bernard CIN RB*1.8
2012Jackson, Steven STL RB12.4Pead, Isaiah STL RB1.3
2012Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB*12.7Jennings, Rashad JAC RB*7.2
2012Brown, Donald IND RB*6.6Ballard, Vick IND RB8.2
2012Gore, Frank SFO RB14.2Hunter, Kendall SFO RB*5.8
2012Peterson, Adrian MIN RB21.8Gerhart, Toby MIN RB3.9
2012Bush, Reggie MIA RB13.2Thomas, Daniel MIA RB*7.3
2013S.Jackson12.4J.Rodgers9.6
2013R.Rice12B.Pierce5.5
2013C.Spiller10.6F.Jackson14.6
2013M.Forte21.3M.Bush3.8
2013D.Murray18.6J.Randle7.6
2013R.Bush17.7J.Bell13.8
2013E.Lacy16.3J.Franklin3.7
2013J.Charles25.5K.Davis4.4
2013L.Miller7.9D.Thomas7
2013L.McCoy20.8B.Brown4.1
2013M.Lynch17.3C.Michael2.6
2013F.Gore12.3K.Hunter5.3
2013C.Johnson15.3S.Green5.8
2013A.Morris11.6R.Helu7.2
AveAve15.3Ave5.8

Small ADP Gap

YearRB1FPGRB2FPG
2011Wells, Beanie ARI RB12Williams, Ryan ARI RB*0
2011Jackson, Fred BUF RB21.3Spiller, C.J. BUF RB9.9
2011Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB9.7Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB12.2
2011Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB5.6McGahee, Willis DEN RB11.1
2011Grant, Ryan GBP RB8Starks, James GBP RB8.8
2011Addai, Joseph IND RB6.1Carter, Delone IND RB3.5
2011Bush, Reggie MIA RB14Thomas, Daniel MIA RB6.4
2011Green-Ellis, BenJarvus NEP RB9.8Woodhead, Danny NEP RB5
2011Ingram, Mark NOS RB9.3D.Sproles17
2011Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB16.1Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB9.5
2011Greene, Shonn NYJ RB12Tomlinson, LaDainian NYJ RB9.5
2011Mathews, Ryan SDC RB17.2Tolbert, Mike SDC RB13.8
2011Hightower, Tim WAS RB12.4Helu, Roy WAS RB11.3
2012Smith, Kevin DET RB4.8Best, Jahvid DET RB0
2012Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB8.7Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB9.2
2012Wells, Beanie ARI RB7.1Williams, Ryan ARI RB*5.6
2012Benson, Cedric GBP RB*10.9Starks, James GBP RB6.4
2012Redman, Isaac PIT RB6.9Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB6.6
2012Jackson, Fred BUF RB*12.3Spiller, C.J. BUF RB16.3
2012Bradshaw, Ahmad NYG RB13.2Wilson, David NYG RB5.2
2012Charles, Jamaal KCC RB15.4Hillis, Peyton KCC RB4.1
2012Sproles, Darren NOS RB16.5Ingram, Mark NOS RB6.2
2012Helu, Roy WAS RB*3.9Morris, Alfred WAS RB16.1
2012McGahee, Willis DEN RB*14.5Hillman, Ronnie DEN RB3.9
2012Ridley, Stevan NEP RB13.1Vereen, Shane NEP RB6.5
2012Turner, Michael ATL RB11.1Rodgers, Jacquizz ATL RB8.8
2012Foster, Arian HOU RB19.1Tate, Ben HOU RB5.1
2012Martin, Doug TBB RB19.6Blount, LeGarrette TBB RB2.8
2012Forte, Matt CHI RB14.9Bush, Michael CHI RB*6.8
2013D.Williams11.1J.Stewart4.9
2013G.Bernard14.1B.Green-Ellis14.1
2013M.Ball7.6K.Moreno18.5
2013A.Foster13.3B.Tate10.7
2013A.Bradshaw13.9V.Ballard6.8
2013S.Ridley9.7S.Vereen16.8
2013D.Richardson6.8Z.Stacy14.3
2013R.Mathews13.3D.Woodhead14.2
2013L.Bell16.9J.Dwyer2.4
2013C.Ivory7B.Powell8.7
2013D.Wilson4.7A.Brown12.2
2013D.Sproles11.8P.Thomas13.3
AveAve11.6Ave8.9

Takeaways

As a group, the Large Gap RB1s averaged over 15 FPG, while their backups averaged just under 6 FPG. On the Small Gap side of the ledger, the RB1s average about 11.5 FPG while the RB2s come in at about 9 FPG. So on the surface, the four groups perform as expected. Yeah, crowd!

Large Gap RBs

You don’t need a RotoViz subscription to tell you that the Large Gap RB1s are really desirable (as a group) targets. Who wouldn’t want Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, etc. on their team? These RBs represent the highest ceiling, but also the highest risk.

The next most obvious, and useful, observation is that in aggregate, handcuffing a Large Gap RB1 has little value. Even the rationale for handcuffing is questionable: “I’m going to use a roster spot on a player that only has value if another player is lost.” Essentially you’re investing two picks in that Large Gap RB1, which probably doesn’t even decrease the damage if that player is lost,3 and provides no value if he isn’t.

Then consider that out of 44 Large Gap combos, in only 3 cases did the RB2 outperform the RB1: DeMarco Murray over Felix Jones in 2011; Vick Ballard over Donald Brown in 2012; and Fred Jackson over C.J. Spiller last year. The final nail in the coffin, as far as drafting the Large Gap RB2: of 44 such players, only 8 (18%) have provided flex value (more than 8 FPG) and none have produced RB1 value (more than 15 FPG). Instead of drafting a handcuff, you’d be better off with a Small Gap RB.

Small Gap RBs

The really useful takeaways though seem to be on the Small Gap side of the equation. As a group, the Large Gap RB1s have an average ADP of about 15. The Small Gap RB1s come in around pick 60, while the Small Gap RB2s come in around pick 115. Yes, the Large Gap RB1s average 3.5 FPG more than the Small Gap RB1s, but some of that is offset by the lower ADP – almost 3 rounds of difference, on average.

The other thing to consider is risk. Over the past 3 seasons, only 48% of the Large Gap RB1s (by ADP) have put up an RB1 caliber season (over 15 FPG). I’m certainly not saying you shouldn’t draft a clear cut stud. But I am saying that you may want to be cautious about how much draft equity you spend on Large Gap RB1s: a 50% “failure” rate cautions against putting too many eggs in this basket.

Digging into the Small Gap RBs a little more, we see that in aggregate the gap between the RB1 and RB2  is only about 2.5 FPG. But the ADP Gap is 50-60 picks. Fully 1/3 of the time (14 of 41), the Small Gap RB2 outscores the Small Gap RB1, and Small Gap RB2s produce flex-worthy seasons (8+ FPG) at a higher rate (53%) than Large Gap RB1s produce RB1 seasons (48%). In other words, as a group, the Small Gap RB2s are nearly as desirable as the Small Gap RB1s.

This is not to say that Small Gap RB2s are better investments than Large Gap RB1s on their own. Clearly not. But they make a lot more sense than handcuffing your Large Gap RB1. And if you’re doing that whole Zero RB thing? Stocking up on Small Gap RBs is the way to go. Acquiring multiple Small Gap RBs in the mid to late rounds gives you a solid chance at respectable production, while leaving your earlier round picks free to invest in less volatile, more predictable positions.

Application

Keep in mind that 2014 ADP data is still very fluid, and these situations are likely to change by mid-August. But at the moment, here are some Small Gap RB situations to consider:

Team Player ADP
ATL Steven Jackson 72.3
ATL Devonta Freeman 114.3
BAL Ray Rice 44.2
BAL Bernard Pierce 103
BUF C.J. Spiller 30.9
BUF Fred Jackson 92.5
CAR DeAngelo Williams 97.8
CAR Jonathan Stewart 157.8
CLE Ben Tate 40.5
CLE Terrance West 106.1
DET Reggie Bush 24.6
DET Joique Bell 56.4
MIA Knowshon Moreno 67.5
MIA Lamar Miller 140.2
NEP Shane Vereen 36.6
NEP Stevan Ridley 79.2
NYJ Chris Johnson 51.1
NYJ Chris Ivory 119.1
OAK Maurice Jones-Drew 82.2
OAK Darren McFadden 91.6
PHI LeSean McCoy 2.9
PHI Darren Sproles 67.1

I get a little squeamish inside when I think about drafting some of these guys. But these are the guys that will make or break your fantasy roster. It sure looks like Shane Vereen, C.J. Spiller, and Reggie Bush are being drafted too early, based on the recent history of Small Gap RB1s. Their ADP is approaching Large Gap RB1 levels, but it seems unlikely they’ll hit that ceiling. I also think the Darren Sproles ADP will drop a bit over the summer. It’s hard to see Shady McCoy as anything but a Large Gap RB1, but so far this offseason, he’s a Small Gap RB1.

On the other hand, Jonathan Stewart, Lamar Miller, and Chris Ivory are ridiculously cheap, and if they produce at Small Gap RB2 or even Small Gap RB1 levels, you’ll be pleased. If you squint a little bit, CJ2K and Chris Ivory look a little bit like Reggie Bush and Joique Bell. Health is always the question for Ivory, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he had a Joique-like season. Miller is just as talented as he was last season, and Moreno supposedly reported to OTAs out of shape. Stewart is another oft-injured back, but D-Willy is D-Geriatric. Even if both are healthy, there should be a lot of volume in the Carolina run game.

Put it this way: you could assemble a backfield of Joique Bell (56), Stevan Ridley (79), Fred Jackson (92), and Terrance West (106) for an average ADP of 83.25. Not bad. In this case, your first RB is Bell in Round 5. So you’ve got 4 rounds to acquire high quality and less volatile players. You could grab Jimmy Graham in the 1st, a QB like Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, or Matt Stafford, and two WR1 types before hitting RB.

Thought Exercise

So in theory, the highest scoring cohort is the Large Gap RB1, followed by Small Gap RB1 & then Small Gap RB2.4 What if we took the current ADP for every RB, and re-ordered them by cohort? So we’ll rank the Large Gap RB1s by ADP, then Small Gap RB1s by ADP, etc. This would combine the ADP value and Typology value for each RB as a sort of alternate way of ranking RBs for the upcoming season. Here’s what that would look like:

Typology Player
Lg Gap RB1 Jamaal Charles
Lg Gap RB1 Adrian Peterson
Lg Gap RB1 Matt Forte
Lg Gap RB1 Eddie Lacy
Lg Gap RB1 Marshawn Lynch
Lg Gap RB1 Arian Foster
Lg Gap RB1 Montee Ball
Lg Gap RB1 Doug Martin
Lg Gap RB1 LeVeon Bell
Lg Gap RB1 DeMarco Murray
Lg Gap RB1 Zac Stacy
Lg Gap RB1 Alfred Morris
Lg Gap RB1 Andre Ellington
Lg Gap RB1 Bishop Sankey
Lg Gap RB1 Toby Gerhart
Sm Gap RB1 LeSean McCoy
Sm Gap RB1 Giovani Bernard
Sm Gap RB1 Reggie Bush
Sm Gap RB1 C.J. Spiller
Sm Gap RB1 Shane Vereen
Sm Gap RB1 Ben Tate
Sm Gap RB1 Ray Rice
Sm Gap RB1 Ryan Mathews
Sm Gap RB1 Frank Gore
Sm Gap RB1 Chris Johnson
Sm Gap RB1 Rashad Jennings
Sm Gap RB1 Trent Richardson
Sm Gap RB1 Pierre Thomas
Sm Gap RB1 Knowshon Moreno
Sm Gap RB1 Steven Jackson
Sm Gap RB1 Maurice Jones-Drew
Sm Gap RB1 DeAngelo Williams
Small Gap RB2 Joique Bell
Small Gap RB2 Darren Sproles
Small Gap RB2 Danny Woodhead
Small Gap RB2 Stevan Ridley
Small Gap RB2 Fred Jackson
Small Gap RB2 Khiry Robinson
Small Gap RB2 Bernard Pierce
Small Gap RB2 Terrance West
Small Gap RB2 Jeremy Hill
Small Gap RB2 Devonta Freeman
Small Gap RB2 Chris Ivory
Small Gap RB2 Carlos Hyde
Small Gap RB2 Lamar Miller
Small Gap RB2 Ahmad Bradshaw
Small Gap RB2 Andre Williams
Small Gap RB2 Jonathan Stewart
Small Gap RB2 Darren McFadden

Other than LeSean McCoy, whose ADP Gap vis-a-vis Darren Sproles I’d expect to change over the summer, that’s not a bad redraft ranking.

———-

Find me on G+

  1. PPR, redraft, 12 team leagues  (back)
  2. the average gap is roughly 100 picks  (back)
  3. Because you lose the RB1 production and the handcuff generally underperforms the Small Gap RBs  (back)
  4. We’ll skip Large Gap RB2 entirely  (back)

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