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Quick Hits: Why You Shouldn’t Be Afraid To Draft Tony Romo.

Tony Romo

Tony Romo is entering this season coming off back surgery. This may scare some fantasy players away from drafting him. Is this actually a cause for concern? After all, Joe Montana and Troy Aikman also had the same surgery. Aikman went on to win a Super Bowl the same season and Montana won two after that. Now, I’m not saying Romo is going to have the same success as those two, nor am I saying Romo is just as good them, I’m simply pointing out they had similar surgeries and they both had success afterwards. Lately, some news has begun to surface about Romo’s surgery.

 “I think earlier on, right after surgery, you kind of go through that mode of getting healthy, kind of having to not do too much right away. But now I’m to a point where I can push it and kind of go, and I feel like at this point I could play in a game if I had to.”

What if I told you that you could get the production of a fourth round player in the tenth round of your draft? Is that something you might be interested in? I used the average draft position from My Fantasy League to look at Romo’s ADP since 2008. What caught my interest was that while his production stayed relatively the same, his ADP has been on a steady decline since 2011. Six games into the 2010 he broke his collarbone and that may have had some influence on his ADP. Although his ADP has unquestionably taken the most significant hit in 2014, let’s keep in mind that it is only mid-June.

YearADPFantasy Points/Game (Game Split App)
200815.321.42
200942.0822
201026.0920.82 (6 games)
201140.6522.12
201257.3922.4
201372.8321.93
2014101.68TBD

Back surgery probably isn’t ideal for any NFL player, especially for a quarterback, but I think Romo is coming along well with the healing process, especially after this popped up on my Twitter feed today:

If Romo was really hurting I don’t think he would be pulling antics like that. This is a guy who wants to be out there competing with his teammates.

“I almost snuck in. I feel pretty good. I could go. I was going to take some seven-on-seven reps but I don’t know how much that really helps, just to get those three or four reps today. We’re at this point now and I understand, we’re being smart with it.”

I asked fellow contributor to RotoViz and founder of the DC Times, Jonathan Bales why he thinks Romo’s ADP is dropping (other than injuries.) We both came to an agreement that it could have to do with the new quarterback talent that has entered the league in recent years and also that for whatever reason people just don’t like Tony Romo. They won’t draft him simply because of his name and how “terrible” they think he is. For what it’s worth, Romo ranks in the top 10 among active quarterbacks when it comes game winning drives, 4th quarter comebacks, passing touchdowns, and passing yards. So, why all of the hate?

With Romo’s ADP dropping and his FPPG staying consistent, I have no problem drafting him this year, back surgery and all. Another reason I am keen on Romo is because of that horrid Cowboys defense. Last year they ranked 30th versus the pass and 27th against the run. Not to mention they gave up 21+ points in 12 of their games. Bad defenses, mixed with a pass happy offense typically transfers into fantasy bliss.

When I’m drafting, I don’t draft the name that comes with the player. I draft the statistics and trends that are attached to him. Romo may not put up elite numbers, but you’ll be satisfied with his production if you’re getting him in the later rounds of your draft. It’s also likely that his current ADP doesn’t price in the pass happy offense of coordinator Scott Linehan.

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