We face these decisions constantly. Chicken or steak? Coke or Pepsi? Beer or hard cider (maybe not that one). Boneless or bone-in wings? Anyway, the same thing happens in fantasy football with every round of every draft. Player A or player B? We sit and ponder, looking at all the statistics, strength of schedule, looking for any recent news that may sway our decision. This happens until the seconds nearly expire on our clock, then we have no choice but to make our selection. I am hoping with this ADP Duel series to pull together actionable information that will help you and I make our draft day decisions a little bit easier.
ADP, easy as 1,2,3 . . .
Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick are constantly being compared to each other. Maybe it’s because they’re in the same division or maybe it’s because when people look at them, they see a similar player. According to the ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator, fantasy football players also see them in a similar way, in terms of fantasy value.
Russell Wilson vs. Colin Kaepernick- Game Splits
I took the game splits from the last two years and changed the filter to only include top 10 pass defenses in the “in split” category. Kaepernick’s fantasy points change dramatically when he’s competing against better pass defenses, dropping nearly six full points. His passing yards drop to a putrid 147.8 yards per game and he throws roughly a single touchdown per game. Wilson’s fantasy output on the other hand, remains almost identical. Although, his passing yards take 20-yard dip (half the amount of Kaepernick’s), he actually averages more TD passes, less interceptions, and slightly more fantasy points. I also found it interesting that Kaepernick has the reputation of being a “running QB” and yet he and Wilson average roughly the same rushing yards per game.
Russell Wilson vs. Colin Kaepernick- Game Splits (NFC West)
With the murderer’s row of defenses in the NFC West, I decided to also look at the splits of these two QBs when they play within their division. The results surprised me to say the least. While Wilson remained consistent versus top 10 pass defenses, he has struggled while facing off with defenses within his division. Wilson’s production fell in every category. Kaepernick has five less games against his divisional opponents, but he outscored Wilson in terms of fantasy points, by almost six whole points. However, in the games outside of the division, Wilson continues to have the edge over Kaepernick in every category.
Russell Wilson vs. Colin Kaepernick- Heatmap
Now, lets take a look at the Heatmap comparing those two. Wilson beats Kaepernick in nearly every category. The categories that stand out the most to me are Wilson’s completion percentage and his passing yards, compared to Kaepernick.
Russell Wilson vs. Colin Kaepernick- QB Sim Scores
Using the helpful RotoViz QB sim score app, I plugged in Wilson and Kaepernick to see what we have them projected for. This is a very useful tool and I’d highly recommend you check it out if you have time.
Wilson (above) has the higher projection for the low, median and high category and the highest in both scoring formats. In fact, his median projections are higher than Kaepernick’s (below) high projections.
Questions- Russell Wilson
– Will the Seahawks switch to a more pass-balanced offense or continue to be just as run heavy?
– Does the departure of Golden Tate matter now that Percy Harvin is “healthy?”
– Can Wilson improve upon his numbers versus divisional opponents?
Questions- Colin Kaepernick
– Will Michael Crabtree’s injuries continue to be a problem?
– Can Kaepernick improve against better pass defenses?
– Does it matter even matter if Crabtree is out?
Currently the ADP says otherwise, but I think Russell Wilson is the winner here. Fantasy Gumshoe makes a strong argument that Kaepernick could be a top five QB this year. This was certainly one of the harder decisions I’ve had to make. It’s hard for me to get over the fact that Kaepernick had three single-digit fantasy point games last year, where he posted FIVE points or less. They were probably just anomalies or due to the loss of Michael Crabtree, but those numbers are engraved into my brain. With the Seahawks having the most rush attempts (1,045) and the fewest pass attempts (825) Wilson continues to put up solid numbers. His value could be capped if they continue that trend, but if they sway to a more pass-balanced offense, Wilson’s numbers may improve quite a bit. With this particular ADP Duel, it could come down to personal preference in the end, but if the decision came to me, I’m voting Wilson.