Not all ADP risers are the same. Some price themselves out of value, while others remain solid acquisition targets. Here are two that should be avoided, and two that should be targeted. ADP rise is shown in parentheses.
Avoid: Emmanuel Sanders (6.05-5.01)
His 6.05 ADP was already a little too rich for my blood, but the recent concussion to Wes Welker, suffered on August 23rd, gave Sanders’ ADP a massive boost. Given his 5’10 180 lb frame he may be better off filling the slot than on the outside in Eric Decker’s old role. However, there’s no guarantee that Welker will miss even one game…leaving Sanders on the outside. Many expect him to just step in and fill the hole left by Decker, but they are two very different players.
Even while playing with Tim Tebow, Decker’s numbers are comparable to Sanders when he played with Big Ben Roethlisberger. Sanders is also not an automatic bet for the 25 red zone targets that Decker leaves behind. Fantasy Douche examined whether or not Sanders could return value. Let someone else take him that high.
Target: Torrey Smith (6.07-5.10)
The Ravens’ hire of Gary Kubiak is outstanding news for Torrey Smith. Over Kubiak’s tenure with the Texans, Andre Johnson saw an average of 29.5% of the team’s targets and ranked in the top 10 for targets every year he played at least 10 games (he ranked top five in five of those seasons). Smith is expected to play that role in Kubiak’s offense with the Ravens and should see a considerable bump in targets as his career high came last year at 22%. He’s also always been consistent in the red zone with a career RZTDR of 0.3, so he should bounce back after posting just 0.18 last year. Rich Hribar believes Smith will be a WR1 and Shawn Siegele has him ranked #21 in his Projection Machine Rankings.
Avoid: Brandin Cooks (8.06-6.12)
I want to start this by saying that I love Cooks especially given his landing spot. He had terrific market share numbers in college (0.39 final year DR) and was very solid in the red zone (0.33 final year RZTDR). I think Sean Payton will have a blast game planning for him. That said, 6.12 is a little too high. He’s not going to see that same amount of volume in New Orleans this year and his rise is likely predicated on his performance in his first preseason game and camp vines. He will be at least the third red zone target behind Jimmy Graham (25 targets) and Marques Colston (22 targets). Pierre Thomas may even take some of those as he was third on the team last year with 14 red zone targets. I love Cooks but this is just too high.
Target: Justin Hunter (12.04-9.03)
Justin Hunter is a guy that has rocketed updraft boards rising three rounds this month. The potential has always been there at 6’4 and having added 15 lbs to his 193 lb frame. Last year he had four touchdowns on just 18 catches and this preseason has had two more touchdowns on eight catches. Reportedly he is unstoppable on the goal-line fade so far in camp and is going to be a touchdown machine. He is still listed behind Kendall Wright and 31-year-old Nate Washington, but if when he beats out Nate Washington he will be an incredible asset for the Titans with double-digit touchdown potential for a decade. Davis Mattek agrees that he is a mid-round WR you need to be drafting.