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Buyer Beware: 2 Players That Come Up Fantasy Kryptonite

arianfoster

I knew it happened it to me last year when I selected C.J. Spiller. You drafted a seed with an irrepressible brand but deep down knew something wouldn’t pan out. Everyone talked about his upside and how the Bills wanted to give him the ball until he “threw up.” Everyone was drinking the Spiller Kool-Aid. I didn’t even like him last year–I liked that everyone else liked him. There was a little voice within myself urging caution . . . but I decided to take a drink for myself.

With this series, I want to smoke out these guys and see if my hunch can be backed up with equally worrisome data.

Arian Foster

How much drive does an almost 28-year-old running back have when he mentioned that he considered retirement last year following his back injury?

“Any time an athlete goes through an injury like that — a back, a neck, even knees or hips, something that puts you out for the entire season — you kind of re-evaluate your life,” Foster said. “You see what’s really important. Is getting paralyzed more important than playing with your grand kids when you’re 50, 60 years old. People die on the football field. This is a really brutal sport. Going through an injury like that, being 27 years old, I’m young, still I’m at the prime of my career. Is it worth it to try to come back?”

The biggest question mark to me is why a person would consider such a risk in the early rounds of his draft. There are an abundance of better-suited options for your team at Foster’s current ADP of 2.08 on Fantasy Football Calculator. Players like Le’Veon Bell, who James Todd thinks should be your number one back this year, Giovani Bernard, Alfred Morris, undervalued Zac Stacy according to Shawn Siegele, and Andre Ellington are all being selected in that same vicinity. All of those players sound like a more optimal choice than Foster.

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For the most part, Foster’s numbers have been on a downward trend the last few seasons. His current ADP is a heavy price to pay for a player who hasn’t participated much in training camp this offseason. I have a hard time trusting in Foster’s ability to make it through a full season, while remaining as productive as he use to be. The price is too steep for me. James Todd rattles off a few other reasons to avoid Foster in our RotoViz Roundtable from last week.

Emmanuel Sanders

So many people are on the Emmanuel Sanders bandwagon this year now that Peyton Manning will be throwing him the ball.

Average_Draft_Position__ADP__-_Fantasy_Football_Calculator
Selecting him in the sixth round seems crazy to me. Other players with his current ADP that I’d much rather have on my team include Terrance Williams, who is a screaming bargain according to Davis Mattek, mid-round target Mike Wallace, Reggie Wayne, potential WR2 Golden Tate, Eric Decker . . . OK, I could add at least 10 to 15 more guys, but I’ll stop there, you get the point. Lets now take a gander at Sanders’ heatmap.

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People may look at the numbers from 2013 and think “wow, look at that improvement.” Those green numbers all happened when Sanders was the number two in Pittsburgh. All those pretty red numbers came when Sanders was fighting for targets with other receivers like Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace and Jericho Cotchery. Sanders is the fourth-best receiving option on the Broncos roster right now behind Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, and Wes Welker. Fantasy Douche wrote an article a few weeks ago using our fancy new Projection Machine App. He looks at whether or not it’s indeed possible for Sanders (and Welker) to return value this year. How is a guy who couldn’t take targets away from Wallace and Brown going to rustle away looks from the other Broncos offensive weapons?

You may say Manning throws much more than the Steelers. He had 1,242 pass attempts the last two seasons with Denver. But Roethlisberger had 1,033 attempts the last two seasons despite missing four games in 2012, so his totals aren’t that far behind. I think it is going to take an injury from somebody on that team for Sanders to return value at his current ADP. It’s certainly possible with Welker’s concussions, but that is too much risk for me in the sixth round, considering the other options available at that time. I don’t hate the guy, but I loathe his price point.

Buyer Beware Series

Buyer Beware: Will C.J. Spiller’s ADP Finally Bear Fruit in 2014?

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