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Training Camp Notebook: Ahmad Bradshaw vs. T-Rich, and More

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Stedman Bailey

After posting just four PPR fantasy points in the first eight games of last season, Bailey posted 58.9 over the season’s second half, or just over seven PPR points/game. The WR Sim App likes him for a similar total this year, and it’s encouraging to see that most of his comparable players improved year over year as well.

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If Bailey gets more involved in the offense, he could improve on those totals as well. Chris Givens looks to be fading, and Austin Pettis may not make the team. Even Tavon Austin has had a quiet camp. So even though Brian Quick is looking pretty good, and Kenny Britt seems invigorated, the opportunity for Bailey to get a significant role in the offense is definitely there. Team RotoViz penned many a love letter to Bailey last season; perhaps we were just a year too early. Bailey is undrafted in PPR leagues at the moment, and makes a good end-of-bench stash.

Eric Ebron

Over at FanSided, Kent Platte makes a projection for Eric Ebron. His projection came in a bit lower than the one I produced for Ebron, as part of a Lions’ overview. But it’s in the same ball park, and serves as a reminder that rookie tight ends don’t generally produce big numbers. What’s really interesting though, is the work Platte did to highlight the jump that second-year TEs make.

Second year tight ends are among some of the most improved players at any positions in the NFL.  When using averages, you generally expect subtle shifts through which you can extract valuable data.  The shift for tight ends entering year two is the very opposite of subtle…While tight ends tend to struggle as rookies, they tend to break out hard as second year players. 

Read his full article for the details, but the long term take away here is that it’s worth monitoring this year’s rookie TEs, and if they turn in “disappointing” seasons, try to acquire them at a discount, in anticipation of that second-year bump.

Ahmad Bradshaw

Bradshaw is eager to get into some game action. Fantasy drafters are eager as well: Bradshaw’s ADP has risen two full rounds in the past month. I absolutely think Bradshaw will have value as long as he stays healthy. It’s worth watching his ADP though to make sure his price doesn’t exceed his injury risk. But it’s also worth noting that his injury risk may not be as significant as it seems. Frankly, Trent Richardson doesn’t scare me. If T-Rich has a productive year, there will still be plenty of work for Bradshaw. And if T-Rich doesn’t, Bradshaw should thrive. Take a look at the Career Graph for Bradshaw and Richardson. When he plays, Bradshaw has maintained his productivity. The jury’s still out on Richardson.

bradshaw

I was surprised to see the RB Sim App actually gives Bradshaw a higher projection for this year than Richardson. I love adding Bradshaw at his current (or cheaper) price in my 2014 leagues.

Aaron Dobson

Take a look at Dobson’s recent ADP.

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That’s a two-round drop. Now, take a look at this recent news nugget.

…his return to the field at this stage puts him in a position to be ready for the start of the regular season, barring any setbacks.

Justin Bailey also touched on Dobson’s return recently. Dobson is a great prospect and should play a prime position in the Patriots’ offense. A healthy Gronk also bodes well for Dobson’s prospects. Get him while he’s cheap, if you can.

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