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Trent Richardson’s YPC + Ahmad Bradshaw’s Injury History = Dan Herron

Dan herron

Trent Richardson has been a player that has been widely debated in the fantasy industry. We even had a Friday Free-For-All where we simply debated what to do with  Richardson this year. Is time we start paying attention to another running back on their roster? I’ll get to him in a second.

People often look back to Richardson’s rookie year, looking at it as some sort of validation and trying to figure out what happened to him. Did his talent simply vanish? Or is he just another run of the mill role player? In 2012, Richardson averaged 3.56 yards per carry, and his longest run was 32 yards. Certainly nothing to write home about. His YPC was similar to rushers such as Alexander Green, Jackie Battle, Daniel Thomas, and Michael Turner. He saved his fantasy value by rushing for 11 TDs and catching 51 balls for 367 yards. Overall his YPC was seventh-worst in the NFL among RBs who had at least five rushing attempts per game.

Last season, Richardson’s YPC dropped to 2.99, rushing for 563 yards, and only found pay-dirt three times on the ground. His YPC was third-worst in the league among RBs who had at least five rushing attempts per game. Overall, T-Rich has had a pretty lackluster career in the NFL.

Here are some players that matched him on YPC basis in 2013

NameAttemptsYardsYPCYPGTDsLongest RunRushing First Downs
Trent Richardson1885632.9935.232228
Rashard Mendenhall2176873.1745.882843
Ray Rice2146603.084444728
Bernard Pierce1524362.8727.222820
Willis McGahee1383772.7331.421628

Richardson hasn’t fared much better in the preseason, either.

I think this is starting to resemble a trend with Richardson and it’s time to look elsewhere in this backfield.

Dan Herron

Dan Herron is a second-year back, who’s also listed third on the Colts depth chart, behind Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw. His path to playing time isn’t that much of a long-shot. He’s behind a struggling Richardson, and Bradshaw is coming back from neck surgery. Herron is 5’10” and 210 pounds, built similarly to Zac Stacy, who’s 5’8″ and 216 pounds.


In 2008 Herron was teammates with Chris “Beanie” Wells, which explains his limited use. Herron’s best season at Ohio State came in 2010 when he complied 1,335 total yards and 16 TDs. In 2011 he was suspended for the first five games of the season, but he was still quite effective during his seven-game stint.

Dan HerronOhio State2220102194.666.9718102.691.231.532

I entered in Herron’s stats in our RB prospect app from his 2010 season, since that is the only year he played a full college season. He had a score of 32 on a scale of 0 – 100. 100 being good. His score of 32 would mean that he has a below average chance of being a workhorse back in the NFL. Similar notable RBs around the same score of 32 were Mark Ingram (33), Bryce Brown (30), and Brian Leonard (31). He’s not an amazing prospect but in this case the bar he needs to get over might actually be laying on the ground. He might be able to step over it.


He has OK comparables from his NFL combine in 2012. The name the stands out the most to me is Joique Bell.

Herron has been having a solid preseason this year. Against the Saints in their third game, Herron rushed for 68 yards on eight carries. Throughout the preseason, Herron has 108 rushing yards on 18 carries, he’s also been a factor in the passing game after hauling in 10 receptions for 42 yards. The word out of Colts camps is that Herron made the active roster Monday. I believe Herron is definitely worth an add in a dynasty league.1 Herron probably isn’t draft-able yet in redraft leagues since he’s still way back on the depth chart, but keep an eye on him. Richardson certainly isn’t making a case to keep his job.

  1. I even tried to add him today, but waivers aren’t active yet . . .  (back)

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