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Joe 2 Pro: DFS Cash Game Strategy, Week 3: Exploiting Value

Joique Bell

If you missed my first article introducing the “Joe 2 Pro” series, you can read it here. It gives a brief overview on how to attack daily fantasy sports without feeling like you’re drowning, and what I plan to cover in this Joe 2 Pro series.

Every week there is always going to value to exploit when it comes to daily fantasy sports. Chatting with Matt Rittle last night, he told me that he thought he could make a team this week for $25,000 on DraftKings, give or take. So I set out to do just that and dive into these salaries and make a team for substantially less than your total salary cap and see what players I believe to be under-priced.

My_Lineups_-_DraftKings

Well, this team isn’t quite under $25,000, but it is almost $10,000 less than what you’re allowed to spend. Every single one of these players I would feel comfortable starting in a cash game. The fact that Russell Wilson is even on this team just confuses me. This actually doesn’t look like a bad cash game lineup, but it just goes to show how much value you can find in a given week. You’re not actually going to use this team on DraftKings, but you can use these options along with some higher priced studs.

Russell Wilson

Wilson is up against the Broncos this week, and he just faced them in the Super Bowl where he completed 72 percent of his passes for 206 yards, two touchdowns, and rushed for 26 yards on three attempts. Wilson’s Week 1 salary was $7,700 and his fantasy output was 18.54 points. In Week 2 his salary dropped to $7,100 and he scored 17.88 points. Week 3, he dropped to $6,800. He’s currently the No. 8-ranked QB in total fantasy points. Wilson averages 0.60 fantasy points per drop back and has a completion percentage that is second-highest in the league at 78 percent and has yet to throw an interception. The most amazing thing to me is that Wilson’s pass attempts are third-fewest in the league and he still manages to produce dependable fantasy output each week. Andrew Luck and Jay Cutler have over 30 more pass attempts than Wilson and they are only outscoring him by eight and nine points on the season. My favorite stat from Pro Football Focus is that Wilson is pressured on 36.1 percent of his drop-backs and his accuracy percentage is still 90 percent, while only being sacked three times. Why Wilson’s price is the 15th-highest this week is beyond me, but I’m going to take advantage of it. Our GLSP App loves Wilson this week as much as I do.

GLSP_Projections_-_QB_-_RotoViz

Joique Bell

I typically avoid timeshares in cash games, but there are always exceptions. Joique Bell is one of those exceptions. His $5,400 price tag is too cheap to pass up this week. Especially in a game projected with an O/U of 52 and the Lions projected to score 26 points. Although it has only been two games, the Packers have given up the fifth-most FPPG to opposing running backs.

Player_Snap_App___Fantasy_Football

Bell has been out-snapping Bush since Week 1, and it’s also clearly established that he is their goal-line back. Bell fumbled twice last week and the Lions still stuck with him, rather than taking the Tom Coughlin or Bill Belichick approach.

index

Last week against Carolina, Bell also had 11 targets in the passing game compared to Bushs’ three. A cheap RB who’s up against a poor rush defense, who also catches the ball and gets the goal line touches? Sign me up.

Stevan Ridley

I think people seem to forget that Ridley rushed for 1,263 yards and 12 TDs back in 2012. There are times when you can deploy Ridley. It’s when the Patriots are favored or when they’re up against a poor rush defense. When given the opportunity he can produce on a weekly basis. Playing Ridley in a cash game can be risky because if he fumbles, he likely won’t see the field again. The Patriots are favored by 14 points this week and the Raiders have given up 400 yards and two TDs on the ground the last two weeks. We saw what Ridley could do last week against the Vikings when they had the lead for the majority of the game.

Player_Snap_App___Fantasy_Football

We can see by the snap percentages what RBs the Patriots utilize depending on how game flow goes. They were trailing versus Miami, so Shane Vereen saw the majority of the work. Ridley is their closer, and this game should pan out in his favor. But don’t be surprised if they make a call to the bullpen and bring in Brandon Bolden if they have a sizable enough lead.

Jeremy Hill

Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson said he wanted to get Hill more involved next week and he wasn’t lying.

Player_Snap_App___Fantasy_Football

He saw the field for 42 percent of the snaps compared to 15 percent in the week before. The Titans just let DeMarco Murray run all over them last week. The Bengals were able to contain a high-powered Falcons offense and I believe they can do the same thing to the Titans. Hill managed 74 yards and a TD on 15 carries and his yards per carry was a full 1.6 yards more than his counterpart, Giovani Bernard. Bernard continues to struggle to break the 3.5 YPC threshold. If you’re looking to save at RB this week to try and squeeze Calvin Johnson into your lineup, Hill could be serviceable.

 Golden Tate

Tate at $5,000 is just too good to pass up in what should be a high-scoring game in Detroit. Our GLSP App has a nice projections for Tate this week against a Packers defense that has gave up the fourth-most points to opposing WRs.

GLSP_Projections_-_WR_-_RotoViz

A median projection of 14.2 gives Tate roughly $352 per point scored. Typically, the lower the price the better the value.

Player_Snap_App___Fantasy_Football

It’s also reassuring that Tate rarely leaves the field. If the Packers are worrying about anyone, it’s the man opposite of him. Tate has seen over five receptions and over 50 yards in each of his games as a Lion, that trend should continue in what should be a high scoring game.

Andrew Hawkins

Andrew Hawkins definitely isn’t your prototypical RotoViz wide receiver, he’s small and has four career TDs, but he is by far Brian Hoyer’s favorite receiving option on the team. The Browns have 72 pass attempts on the year and Hawkins has seen 22 targets in those two games, which is 30 percent market share on the team. On a full PPR site like DraftKings, Hawkins would be an ideal candidate to target for your cash games. I’d also note that Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd are both $4,800 this week on DraftKings, but I’m not sure how comfortable I am plugging either guy into my lineup. If I had to choose, based on what Drew Stanton did on Sunday, I’d lean on Fitzgerald.

Justin Hunter

I think just about everybody whiffed on Hunter last week. Unfortunately, Delanie Walker had the game we all expected Hunter to receive. I have no other reason to put Hunter here other than his cheap price and his potential in the red zone.

ProFootballFocus_com_-_Game_Statistics

Using some stats from Pro Football Focus we’re able to get a better idea of how these WRs are being used. What stands out to me the most is Hunter has an average depth of target of 17.6 yards, over four times greater than Kendall Wright’s. Despite Wright being known as the guy who typically catches the most on the team, Locker has still targeted Hunter two more times. Many have pegged this as Hunter’s breakout year. It may not be this week against a tough Bengals defense, but he has the Colts in Week 5. A part of me is hoping Hunter stays quiet again this week so we see another drop in price for next week. I’m not against Hunter in a cash game lineup, but don’t seek too much exposure to him this week.

Jermaine Gresham

Typically I like to punt at tight end because of their volatility, but the majority of my favorite punt options have seen an increase in price. Niles Paul and Larry Donnell prices both increased over $1,000 and Travis Kelce has gone up $700. Deploying Gresham into my lineup would largely depend if A.J. Green is playing or not. Gresham only saw three targets last week with the departure of Green, but Dalton only had to throw the ball 24 times. If you’re not comfortable starting Gresham, I’m also looking at Dennis Pitta or Greg Olsen for mid-ranged priced guys. I’m not reading too much into the fact that Owen Daniels caught two TDs against the Steelers last week.

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