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Joe 2 Pro: DFS GPP Strategy, Week 3: Market Share

calvin johnson

If you missed my first article introducing the “Joe 2 Pro” series, you can read it here. It gives a brief overview on how to attack daily fantasy sports without feeling utterly overwhelmed, and what I plan to cover in this Joe 2 Pro series.

To win a guaranteed prize pool (GPP) in daily fantasy sports, you need a lot of points. Sounds obvious, right? First place in DraftKing’s Sunday Million tournament scored 231.64 points. First place in FanDuel’s $10 Vegas qualifier scored 187.44 points.

What I noticed about their teams is their running backs were on teams favored by the Las Vegas betting lines and their wide receivers had the majority of the market share on their team.

Market Share

Market share involves what percentage of targets a WR is targeted compared to everyone else on the team. This is something I look at when I am searching for WRs to stack with my QB in GPPs or when I am trying to fill in the rest of my team. Through the first two weeks of the season Jordy Nelson has seen 40.5 percent of his teams targets. He’s also seen 35.7 percent of the red zone looks from Rodgers, averaging 2.5 targets/game. The Packers have five redzone TDs this year with 80 percent of them coming via the pass. The Rodgers/Nelson stack could be another great pairing this week against Detroit.

Another reason market share can be useful is to find out which WR a QB is favoring when they approach the red zone because ultimately NFL teams and fantasy players are all chasing TDs.

Wide Receivers Team Targets Targets/G MS Rec Rec/G Drops RZ Targets
Target/G – RZ
MS – RZ
Jeremy Maclin PHI 21 10.5 26.25% 8 4 0 5 2.5 62.50%
Brandon Marshall CHI 20 10 24.10% 13 6.5 1 5 2.5 55.56%
Michael Crabtree SF 13 6.5 23.21% 9 4.5 0 3 1.5 42.86%
Julian Edelman NE 15 7.5 19.23% 12 6 0 3 1.5 42.86%
Steve Smith BAL 25 12.5 27.47% 13 6.5 6 3 40.00%
Mohamed Sanu CIN 9 4.5 14.75% 7 3.5 0 2 1 40.00%
Allen Robinson JAX 9 4.5 12.86% 5 2.5 0 2 1 40.00%
Demaryius Thomas DEN 18 9 29.03% 9 4.5 3 5 2.5 38.46%
Calvin Johnson DET 24 12 30.77% 13 6.5 2 4 2 36.36%
Donnie Avery KC 19 9.5 26.03% 10 5 0 4 2 36.36%
Jordy Nelson GB 30 15 40.54% 18 9 0 5 2.5 35.71%
Randall Cobb GB 15 7.5 20.27% 11 5.5 0 5 2.5 35.71%
Andre Johnson HOU 16 8 39.02% 12 6 0 2 1 33.33%

This table is sorted by the league leaders among WRs in red zone market share. One thing that stood out to me was Allen Robinson leading his team when he hardly played in Week 1. Alshon Jeffery currently has zero red zone targets this year, while Brandon Marshall has the second-most red zone looks in the league.

Market share can be useful when trying to predict which tight end to use because of their volatility.

Here is a table of TEs that have over 20 percent market share on their team through Week 2.

Tight End
Team
Targets
Targets/G
MS
Rec
Rec/G
Drops
Targets – RZ
Targets/G – RZ
MS – RZ
Greg Olsen CAR 19 9.5 28.79% 14 7 0 2 1 28.57%
Jimmy Graham NO 23 11.5 28.40% 18 9 0 4 2 26.67%
Delanie Walker TEN 18 9 27.27% 13 6.5 1 4 2 44.44%
Antonio Gates SD 17 8.5 23.94% 13 6.5 1 2 1 33.33%
Larry Donnell NYG 17 8.5 23.94% 12 6 0 2 1 25.00%
Rob Gronkowski NE 17 8.5 21.79% 8 4 1 1 0.5 14.29%
Martellus Bennett CHI 18 9 21.69% 15 7.5 0 2 1 22.22%
Niles Paul WAS 15 7.5 21.13% 12 6 1 2 1 28.57%
Julius Thomas DEN 13 6.5 20.97% 11 5.5 0 4 2 30.77%
Dennis Pitta BAL 19 9.5 20.88% 13 6.5 2 3 1.5 20.00%
Kyle Rudolph MIN 12 6 20.00% 7 3.5 3 1 0.5 16.67%

This table should give you a general idea on which TE are involved more than others in their offense.

GPP Thought Process – Week 3

Three games I am targeting for GPPs include the Lions and Packers game because it currently has an O/U of 52 and both teams have high-powered offenses. The Saints are a different team when the enter the Superdome and a Drew Brees stack with Brandin Cooks or Jimmy Graham could pay dividends. People may avoid the Denver and Seattle game because it’s a home game for the Seahawks, but I think many of the Broncos make for great contrarian plays this week. My favorite may be Julius Thomas because he’s frequently targeted in the red zone and Antonio Gates just put up three TDs on the Seahawks last week. For whatever it’s worth, Thomas averages more total yards on the road than he does at home, 70 yards per game on the road, compared to 46 yards per game at home. I make two-to-three GPP lineups per week and this week they’re going to have a mix of Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, and also Brees with Brandin Cooks and Jimmy Graham. I’ll fill in the gaps with whatever players see the most market share for their team and RBs who are on teams that are heavily favored, like Stevan Ridley against the Raiders as they’re favored by 14 points.

Good luck to everybody in Week 3!

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