Last week I posted a visualization of running back fantasy football performance relative to snap percentage. This post provides an update through Week 3. See the earlier post for more background information.
- Up and to the right is good of course. The trend line represents the best fit for all RBs through three weeks. So players above the line have out-performed, while players below the line have under-performed, relative to their snap percentage. Some players on the low end of the snap percentage continuum are definitely worth your attention though. They may have missed games because of injury, or only just gotten an opportunity to play, etc.
- Starting at the lower left. Neither has played a significant amount of total team snaps, but Lorenzo Taliaferro has been more efficient with his work than Bernard Pierce. On the other hand, Justin Forsett has been even better with his work.
- Jamaal Charles looks to be on track to play this week. He also gets one of the most RB-friendly matchups of the week. He should take a big jump from where he is. Knile Davis has done nothing to disappoint with his workload though, so he should remain rostered.
- Roy Helu hasn’t gotten many snaps, but he’s been good with the ones he’s gotten. If for any reason he gets a bigger opportunity it could mean big things.
- Find Chris Johnson right on the trend line at about 40 percent of snaps. Now go straight up. Chris Ivory is having a much more productive season. I had higher expectations than most for Johnson this season. So far I’m wrong on that call.
- Three almost identical seasons so far: Trent Richardson, Jonathan Stewart, and Stevan Ridley.
- Joique Bell still has a lead in terms of snaps played, but Reggie Bush has established a sizable productivity advantage. Small sample size and all that. Both remain solid fantasy assets, but predicting their weekly usage is shaping up to be a challenge.
- It’s unfortunate that Mike Tolbert is injured, but it’s not unfortunate that he’s no longer getting the ball.
- Toby Gerhart has now eked out a slight lead over Eddie Lacy. Other backs having better seasons to date than Lacy: Matt Asiata, Frank Gore, Darren McFadden, the ShamWow guy, and my college roommate.
- Asiata also gets the second-best RB matchup of Week 4.
- The most perfectly average season to date: Zac Stacy. He’s at 51 percent of snaps and right on the productivity trend line. Which makes his season almost identical to Arian Foster’s.
- Speaking of almost identical: Asiata and Andre Ellington.
- Cleveland and Buffalo have two of the best backfields going.
- Lamar Miller. Solid work.
- So far Giovani Bernard has performed very well, and has met those lofty pre-season expectations.
- Honk if you called Ahmad Bradshaw in the top five. Rashad Jennings in the top seven? Le’Veon Bell in the top two?
- When do we get to start worrying about Matt Forte? Now? No? How about now? Schedule and offensive line injuries haven’t helped. But this is one of the bigger disappointments of the season so far. He gets his easiest matchup of the season this week; if things don’t improve you’ll find me on the window ledge.
- You could make a pretty good “All Disappointment” backfield from highly drafted running backs below the trend line. Start with Forte, then add Montee Ball, Lacy, and Andre Ellington. Throw in injuries to Jamaal Charles and a suspension for Adrian Peterson. RB Zero anyone?———-Find me on G+