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Top 10 Takeaways From Week 5: The QB Opportunity Report

russellwilson

The idea of these reports is to leverage the fantastic Fantasy Efficiency App to give us some sense as to which players are producing more (or fewer) fantasy points than expected based on their usage.

Terms you’ll need to know.

paEP- The amount of expected points from a quarterback given their opportunity.
paFPOE- The amount of fantasy points scored over expected. Calculated by subtracting the paEP from the actual amount of fantasy points scored.
paFPOEA- The amount of fantasy points scored over expected per attempt. Calculated by dividing the paFPOE by passes attempted.

Let’s take a look at some notable Week 5 performances.

  • While logging career touchdown pass numbers 500, 501, 502, and 503 in his Week 5 game, Peyton Manning also posted the season’s high paFPOE at 18.33, narrowly edging out Joe Flacco’s Week 4 performance of 18.09. Manning’s Week 1-4 total paFPOE was just 17.9.
  • Drew Brees had the most opportunity of the week with a week high paEP of 22 but posted a negative paFPOE, his third of the young season. I don’t think there should be a lot of concern, as the opportunity has been there for him posting the third-highest EP on the season.
  • Aaron Rodgers built on his strong Week 4 performance by posting the most efficient week on a per attempt basis with a whopping 0.87 paFPOEA.  He will continue to be the best option going forward through week 11.

GB611

  • Matt Ryan struggled Sunday with a negative paFPOE, but remains fifth in efficiency per attempt1 while attempting the most passes by anyone in the top five. He has 192 attempts, the next closest in the top five has 160.
  • As far as streaming options go, Austin Davis, who had the sixth-highest paEP and cashed in with the fifth-highest paFPOE on the week may be the best one to date.  FD called his shot last week and proclaimed Davis as the Forgotten Streaming Hero and he couldn’t have been more right.  Stream at your own risk, however, as St. Louis has a bottom three strength of schedule score according to the Buy Low Machine from Weeks 6 to 12.

STL SOS

  • Philip Rivers continued his dominant season by adding 0.49 fantasy points per attempt against a weak Jets secondary. Rivers now has the highest total paFPOE at 45.84 on the season.
  • Matt Stafford posted a positive paFPOE but was middle of the pack  in paEP. Calvin Johnson came out of the game after reinjuring his ankle on the first play of the second half, did not return and could miss a game or two.  Stafford has struggled in the three games he started in which Johnson has sat out.

Staff Calvin Splits

  • In what may be the sickest joke the fantasy gods have played this year, Charlie Whitehurst finished in the top five for paFPOE this week. Seriously. He did this despite posting just the 28th paEP. I would look to stream any QB playing the Browns from here on out.
  • Cam Newton has taken some heat this year, but I’m not sure it’s warranted. Newton is just 24th in paEP but has made the very most of the passing opportunity and is 8th in paFPOE. I believe the angst comes in from his lack of rushing attempts (only 15 on the year). There hasn’t been much opportunity in the passing game but Newton is making the most of it and as the season goes on and he gets healthier the rushing points will hopefully come.
  • Russell Wilson is the league’s most efficient QB on a per attempt basis. He has attempted 103 passes on the year and has posted a 0.34 paFPOEA. What’s crazier is that he is third in total paFPOE with 50-plus less attempts than the two QBs ahead of him, Manning (157) and Philip Rivers (160). Crazier still, Wilson ranks just 28th in paEP of all QB with 50 attempts or more. Put simply, he is absolutely shredding.

  1. Minimum 50 attempts.  (back)

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