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The Week 6 Rundown Part II: The Fading Keenan Allen Fantasy Star, and More

keenanallen

Markus Wheaton

Pittsburgh currently sits at fourth in total plays and seventh in pass attempts, so you’d think the opportunity would be there. But through six games, Wheaton has just 277 yards receiving (40th overall) and 24 receptions (32nd overall). He has less than 40 yards receiving in four of six games and has yet to find the end zone. For the season, he’s been average on a per-target basis (0.18 FPOEPT) and slightly above average in total (5.16 FPOE). His per-target efficiency was just 47th best through Week 5, and yesterday’s 4 catches on 11 targets probably doesn’t help. He’s no better than the fourth option in the Steelers passing game.

NAME TRGS TRGMS reEP reFPOE reFPOEPT
Antonio Brown 51 29.3% 63.17 34.93 0.68
Heath Miller 31 17.8% 37.91 4.39 0.14
Le’Veon Bell 29 16.7% 28.67 6.13 0.21
Markus Wheaton 28 16.1% 30.24 5.16 0.18

Put it this way: Le’Veon Bell is just as good a receiver as Wheaton. It’s maybe too early to give up on Wheaton. But I’m not sure I’d stick around waiting either. The Steelers have just the 23rd-best wide receiver schedule between weeks 7 and 12. His fantasy playoff schedule looks tasty: 10th easiest, including games against New Orleans, Atlanta, and Kansas City. But if I can, I’d rather package Wheaton with something else that helps me get to the playoffs before I start worrying about how Wheaton might perform in the playoffs.

Louis Murphy

At some point we have to pay attention, right? In three games, he has 11, 7, and 9 targets. He’s PPR WR 34 over that time frame. This week he got 7 targets despite the presence of Mike Evans (8 targets). Maybe the Buccaneers don’t need to pass as much against the Vikings and Browns in their next two games. But later in the season they play the Falcons, Bears, Packers, Lions, Saints, Bengals, and Washington. The Detroit game is in a dome, and the Saints, Packers, and Bengals games are in Tampa, where weather shouldn’t be an issue. In their past four games, Tampa Bay has given up 56, 24, 37, and 48 points. Murphy’s probably available. You maybe don’t need to run out and acquire him, but he should probably be on your seasonal and perhaps Daily Fantasy Sports watch list.

Keenan Allen

So the Keenan Allen fantasy star might be fading a bit. Allen’s season is a disappointment to many fantasy owners. It’s possible that his season improves from here, but I’m not adding him to my “buy low” list. Here’s why. In 2013, Allen finished with about 20 percent of San Diego’s pass targets. This year he’s already above that, at 22 percent. In 2013, Allen finished with 104 targets, good for 33rd among WRs. So far this season he’s on a similar pace, ranking 30th overall. In other words, he’s being used similarly to last year; it’s not like the Chargers are neglecting him. San Diego has already had one of the easiest WR schedules in the league; a schedule-related bump doesn’t appear to be in the cards. But most of all I’m looking at his rate of TDs/reception. Last season Allen’s TD rate was 11.3 percent. That’s very good. From 2011 to 2013, that’s better than A.J. Green (11.2 percent ), Calvin Johnson (10.9), Julio Jones (10.6), Josh Gordon (10.2), Mike Wallace (10), Brandon Marshall and Marques Colston (9.7), and Larry Fitzgerald (9.4). I don’t think Allen is really better than all of those players. So while I do expect he’ll score some TDs this year, I don’t think he’ll score them as prolifically as he did last season. Perhaps the Eddie Royal injury gets Allen some more targets. But that might be the only thing that will.

Eric Decker

Appears recovered from his hamstring issue. He had 6 catches (another negated by penalty) on 10 targets vs. Denver. His upcoming schedule features games against Buffalo (twice), Kansas City, and Miami. He’s probably not WR1 material, but could definitely have some useful WR2 type games over the rest of the season. He’s PPR WR 35 despite missing one entire game and getting only a single target in another. Through Week 5, he was PPR WR 15 on a points/snap basis. Hold steady.

Luke Willson

Willson had an opportunity over the past two games with Zach Miller missing time to make an impression. Mission not accomplished. In those games he secured just five of 10 targets for 39 yards. He’s still a dynasty hold but off the map in other formats.

Roy Helu

Oh look, Helu is PPR RB 28 for Week 6.1 Here are Helu’s weekly positional finishes (and PPR points).

  • Week 1 – 37 (8.1)
  • Week 2 – 48 (5.6)
  • Week 3 – 21 (12.6)
  • Week 4 – 16 (13.6)
  • Week 5 – 24 (10.8)
  • Week 6 – 28 (8.6)
  • Season – 25 (59.3)

At some point I’ll stop pointing out Helu every week. But he’s a viable option for those desperate at the RB or Flex position and stands to inherit one of the most valuable RB workloads should Alfred Morris miss time.

Cordarelle Patterson

So this is generally not a good sign:

“He’s the second most targeted guy on the team … If he wants the ball, tell him to get open,” said coach Mike Zimmer.

Through Week 5, Patterson’s fantasy points/snap rate was 63rd for WRs. He’s playing 78 percent of snaps, but being targeted on just 11.5 percent of his snaps, good for 75th in the league. Conveniently, his 3.7 PPR points against Detroit were the 75th best mark of the week.2 Ironically, he’s still the Vikings’ leading fantasy receiver (by 0.3 points over Greg Jennings) so maybe the problem has more to do with the quarterback or scheme. On the other hand, he hasn’t separated himself from either Jennings or Jarius Wright at all.

Player Targets Rec Pct Yds TD Long Yds/Target Yds/Rec Fantasy Points
Cordarrelle Patterson 33 17 51.5 204 0 28 6.2 12 53.1
Greg Jennings 34 20 58.8 268 1 30 7.9 13.4 52.8
Jarius Wright 30 18 60 213 0 52 7.1 11.8 40.9

Minnesota’s schedule gets quite a bit more favorable over the rest of the season, for what it’s worth. To me, not much. I’m avoiding Patterson in all formats. A 15 percent market share of targets and at-par efficiency isn’t doing it for me.

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  1. Pre-Monday Night.  (back)
  2. Pre Monday Night.  (back)

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