If you missed my first article introducing the “Joe 2 Pro” series, you can read it here. It gives a brief overview on how to attack daily fantasy football without feeling like you’re drowning. What I am trying to do with the Joe 2 Pro series is bring up topics regarding daily fantasy football that I wish I knew about when I had first started playing. There’s definitely a learning curve when you go from seasonal leagues to daily fantasy football.
Week 16 Thoughts
This recap is going to be a little different from previous recaps. I am going to focus only on my cash games because this was easily my worst week of the year. I am focusing on my cash games because I view them as exponentially more important than my GPP teams. I spend the majority of my week trying to perfect my cash game teams before I even begin to construct GPP rosters. When we have down weeks like this, it is important to remember to be process oriented and not dwell on our results. Yes, it sucks to lose, but it’s important to not play the “what if” game, because it’s not that simple in daily fantasy football. Talking about swapping Player A over Player B in hindsight would totally have restructured your roster most of the time. Week 16 was brutal. Did I get the results I wanted? No, but the process in which I chose those players I believe was correct.
DraftKings and FanDuel
My cash game teams on each site are usually built in a similar fashion, depending on salaries. On DraftKings, I was 6 points away in 50/50 games from a $700 swing. The mediocre showing from my WRs hurt me quite a bit.
Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers
The Saints had the highest projected total and Brees had been looking a little more Brees-esque as of late. The Falcons have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, and the Saints were at home. We were lucky enough that he scratched and clawed his way to the 300-point bonus and squeaking out 17 points. A lot of quarterbacks were frustrating on Sunday, and the mid-tier QBs definitely came out ahead. We were all hoping for a 25+ point day for Brees, but sadly that didn’t happen. To limit my exposure to Brees, I decided to use Rodgers on FanDuel. He and Brees had a similar stat line which is not ideal when you’re paying for the top-tier QBs.
Joique Bell, Fred Jackson, C.J. Anderson
My running backs did OK for me. Bell barely touched the ball in the first half of the Lions game, but ended up with a good stat line. I was on these RBs because of all the work they had been receiving as of late. Anderson was seeing almost 30 touches per game and had combined for more red zone touches than all Broncos WRs combined. Jackson had been playing over 70 percent the snaps for the Bills, he had more red zone touches than the WRs and they were 7-point favorites on the road. Bell had a median projection of 17.8 using our GLSP App and he almost hit it. I had thought Bell would’ve continued to see the bulk of the carries, especially against a Jimmy Clausen led Bears team. Reggie Bush received more work than I had anticipated.
Vincent Jackson, Donte Moncrief, Jarvis Landry and Brandon LaFell
I really had high hopes for Jackson in Week 16. Despite Mike Evans being the more productive of the two WRs, the volume had been there for Jackson. The Packers dominated the time of possession, holding the ball 38 minutes. This limited the volume for the Tampa offense, as Josh McCown only threw the ball 26 times. Jackson led the Bucs in receiving, but unfortunately it was three receptions for 70 yards. Once reports surfaced that T.Y. Hilton was likely to be out for Week 16, I gravitated towards Moncrief, because I thought he would be a great play for his salary. This Colts’ offense looked abysmal on Sunday. Moncrief played over 80 snaps, but had little to show for it. Andrew Luck’s average yards per pass completion was just slightly higher than my grade point average. Landry had been getting peppered with targets for the Dolphins and was a PPR machine for this team. He was still second on the team in targets on Sunday, with nine. However, the production was sub par. He turned his nine targets into eight receptions for 31 yards, while Mike Wallace caught all five of his targets for 58 yards and two touchdowns. I was really high on LaFell once Julian Edelman was ruled out. Lafell has been somewhat consistent in this offense and the matchup against the Jets was great. 7-64 isn’t a bad stat line, but TDs are crucial on FanDuel where we don’t receive a full point per reception.
Prior to Sunday kickoff, I almost switched out Bell and Kelce for Lamar Miller and Rob Gronkowski. In hindsight this sounds obvious, and I said not to play the “what if” game, but I’m only human! You’d think in a week that Alex Smith throws for over 300 yards that Kelce would have more than 31 yards receiving. Despite Kelce’s limited usage throughout the season he had been involved a little more in recent weeks. Since Week 11 he had run the tenth-most pass routes among tight ends and had the third-most receiving yards. The Steelers were also in the bottom of the league at defending the TE. Again, good process, just not the results I was looking for.
Week 16 was a forgettable week for me as I took just over a $400 loss. It was my first losing week since Week 6 where I only lost $14. While I had been running fairly hot lately, I still stuck to no more than 10 percent of bankroll each week because proper bankroll management is so important and it’s an area where new players struggle. You don’t want to play more money just because you’re playing really well lately. You keep your percentage the same and your money in play will eventually increase over time. While losing $400 is not fun, I was able to absorb this beat down a little better because of sticking to my 10 percent limit. Just remember, process over results. Don’t throw out more money next week trying to win back everything you lost the week before. Lets finish strong in Week 17.
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