About midway through the season in 2013, a losing team in my dynasty league traded Dez Bryant for two first round picks. That team, let’s call him “Rebuilder”, turned three first round rookie picks into Sammy Watkins, Carlos Hyde and Tre Mason. Needless to say, Rebuilder didn’t make the playoffs last year.

Two picks might not have been enough for a player like Dez. Was Rebuilder unlucky? Maybe. Time will tell if this trade will pay dividends. This begs the question though: What are the odds of hitting on rookie dynasty draft picks?

I researched the last five seasons to find out how much value rookie picks have provided.

The Facts

2010-2014

360 rookie picks (six-round, 12-team draft)

60 (16.6%, or 1 out of 6) registered at least one top-12 QB/TE or top-24 RB/WR season.

22 did it during their rookie season.

Only 25 (8.6%)¹ had two or more top seasons.

2010-2014 Rookie Draft PPR Finishes Top 12 QB/TE Top 24 RB/WR

	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	Total
At least 1 season	18	17	13	8	4	60
2 or more seasons	10	7	5	3		25
Rookies	3	4	6	5	4	22
First Round Hits	7	6	7	5	3	28
Second Round Hits	6	4	3	2	1	16
3rd Round or Later	5	6	3	1	0	15

2014 seemed like a ridiculous year for rookies but it didn’t produce bigger rookie ranks than we’ve seen in the past four. The top fantasy spots are still largely dominated by veterans. The vast majority of the top spots in 2014 were filled by players over age 25.

First Round Odds are close to 50/50

The first round picks hit almost 50% going back to 2010. This number goes down significantly if you take out one year wonders like Javid Best, Trent Richardson, Doug Martin etc. There are already five first round rookie picks that are no longer in the NFL and one that just worked out at the veteran combine.

The second round produced an expected worse return than the first round. Only 26.6% of picks in the second round posted a qualifying season. Golden Tate, Brandon LaFell and Emmanuel Sanders needed five seasons to hit.

The 3rd round or later was an absolute crap shoot with only 15 panning out of 240 players. Late round picks should be classified as very low percentage shots.

I was recently offered two third round picks for Brandon Marshall. You can see from the data why I declined. I’ll take my chances on Marshall. Elite players have a way of getting back into the top 24 as my research last off season suggests.

The following is the rookie draft ADP going back five seasons and how first and second round picks finished yearly. If there’s blank space following a player’s name it means they never finished in the top 12 QB/TE TE or top 24 RB/WR. The true difference makers made the list.

2010 Rookie Draft ADP

2010		2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
1.01	Ryan Matthews		7		17
1.02	Dez Bryant		19	4	7	4
1.03	Javid Best	20
1.04	CJ Spiller			6
1.05	Demaryius Thomas			5	1	2
1.06	Sam Bradford
1.07	Ben Tate
1,08	Montario Hardesty
1.09	Golden Tate					12
1.10	Arrelious Benn
1.11	Dexter McCluster
1.12	Jermaine Gresham			10
2.01	Jonathan Dwyer
2.02	Jimmy Clausen
2.03	Toby Gerhart
2.04	Mike Williams	16		20
2.05	Brandon LaFell					22
2.06	Tim Tebow
2.07	Aaron Hernandez		3
2.08	Emmanuel Sanders					5
2.09	Eric Decker			9	9
2.10	Colt McCoy
2,11	James Stakes
2.12	Rob Gronkowski	11	1	5		1
3.04	Jimmy Graham		2	1	1	2
4.09	Dennis Pitta			8
5.04	Joique Bell			23	14	13
6.02	Antonio Brown		24		3	1
6.04	Victor Cruz		3	14

2011 Rookie Draft ADP

2011		2011	2012	2013	2014
1.01	Mark Ingram				14
1.02	AJ Green	17	3	4	24
1.03	Julio Jones	21	11		6
1.04	Daniel Thomas
1.05	Ryan Williams
1.06	Greg Little
1.07	Mikel LeShoure		18
1.08	Jon Baldwin
1.09	Cam Newton	4	4	6
1.10	Roy Helu	24
1.11	Shane Vereen				20
1.12	Delone Carter
2.01	DeMarco Murray			6	2
2.02	Randall Cobb		16		8
2.03	Torrey Smith			23
2.04	Leonard Hankerson
2.05	Blaine Gabbert
2.06	Kendall Hunter
2.07	Jake Locker
2.08	Titus Young
2.09	Lance Kendricks
2.10	Jacquizz Rodgers
2.11	Andy Dalton		12	3
2.12	Vincent Brown
3.02	Kyle Rudolph		11
3.03	Colin Kaepernick			11
3.09	Steven Ridley		15
4.03	Jordan Cameron			5
4.12	Julius Thomas			2	10
6.03	Charles Clay			8

2012 Rookie Draft ADP

2012		2012	2013	2014
1.01	Trent Richardson	8
1.02	Andrew Luck	9	7	1
1.03	Doug Martin	2
1.04	Robert Griffin III	9
1.05	Justin Blackmon
1.06	David Wilson
1.07	Michael Floyd
1.08	Coby Fleener			7
1.09	Kendall Wright		20
1.10	Ronnie Hillman
1.11	Isaiah Pead
1.12	Alshon Jeffrey		8	10
2.01	Brian Quick
2.02	Stephen Hill
2.03	Lamar Miller			9
2.04	Rueben Randle
2.05	Ryan Tannehill			10
2.06	LaMichael James
2.07	Mohamed Sanu
2.08	Ryan Broyles
2.09	Brandon Weeden
2.10	A.J. Jenkins
2.11	Robert Turbin
2.12	Josh Gordon		2
3.08	Russell Wilson	11	9	6
4.02	TY Hilton		19	11
5.03	Alfred Morris	7	19	17

2013 Rookie Draft ADP

2013		2013	2014
1.01	Tavon Austin
1.02	Eddie Lacy	8	5
1.03	Giovani Bernard	13	16
1.04	Montee Ball
1.05	LeVeon Bell	15	1
1.06	DeAndre Hopkins		14
1.07	Cordarrelle Patterson
1.08	Tyler Eifert
1.09	Marcus Lattimore
1.10	Jonathan Franklin
1.11	Keenan Allen	18
1.12	Justin Hunter
2.01	Robert Woods
2.02	Zac Stacy	20
2.03	Christin Michael
2.04	Markus Wheaton
2.05	Ej Manuel
2.06	Aaron Dobson
2.07	Geno Smith
2.08	Joseph Randle
2.09	Zach Ertz
2.10	Travis Kelce		6
2.11	Terrance Williams
2.12	Mike Gillislee
3.02	Andre Ellington		19

2014 Rookie Draft ADP

2014		2014
1.01	Sammy Watkins
1.02	Mike Evans	13
1.03	Bishop Sankey
1.04	Brandin Cooks
1.05	Carlos Hyde
1.06	Eric Ebron
1.07	Jordan Matthews
1.08	Odell Beckham Jr.	7
1.09	Kelvin Benjamin	15
1.10	Johnny Manziel
1.11	Devonte Freeman
1.12	Marquis Lee
2.01	Davante Adams
2.02	Tre Mason
2.03	Jeremy Hill	10
2.04	Terrance West
2.05	Teddy Bridgewater
2.06	Cody Latimer
2.07	Allen Robinson
2.08	Blake Bortles
2.09	Austin Seferian-Jenkins
2.10	Jace Amaro
2.11	Donte Moncrief
2.12	Ka'Deem Carey

What does this mean for Rebuilding?

The probability of hitting on picks by round should be noted when evaluating player value.

I’m a little hesitant to trade a stud for picks for several reasons.

1. Players like Dez Bryant are not in every draft class

2. Most players won’t develop into top fantasy producers until several years into their careers

3. Early round picks are better but there are no guarantees a player will ever hit

If you are rebuilding, it may take a season or two or three to see your dynasty rookie picks turn the corner. Ideally, you never get yourself in a place where you have to trade away your best assets.

The real value seems to be in players in year two or three that you can get at a much bigger discount than first or second rookie picks. That should be the biggest takeaway from this information.

What do you think?

1. Excludes 2014.  (back)