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In-Season Articles

In-Season Articles

The Obvious Outliers at Wide Receiver – An Easy Way to Profit in Redraft and Dynasty

The NFL is constantly evolving and yet history continues to repeat itself. You may have noticed most of the same wide receivers finish in the top producing spots every year. I wrote about this in 2016 and the trend hasn’t changed. I researched the top-24 PPR WRs since 2000 and discovered a small percentage are responsible for the overwhelming majority of fantasy production.  A lot of these WRs are connected to elite quarterbacks. Some, like Brandin Cooks, produced with several different QBs. To put it simply, the WRs that finished top 24 had a high(er) likelihood of doing it multiple…...

Tips for a Successful Dynasty Startup Draft

  There are a lot of ways to win in dynasty. Some dynasty owners will plan on losing the first few years while building “dream team” rosters. Others tend to overly focus on youth and/or highly touted rookies. There’s also the “get your guy” owner who will undoubtedly reach for a player often rounds ahead of ADP. You can almost bank on there being at least one of these owners in your start up draft, maybe more. These strategies can work but also create a vulnerability that is exploitable. Here are some principles to follow that have been proven to…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2018 Draft Class

  The 2018 class started out like most previous classes with four rookies finishing inside the PPR top-12 QBs/TEs or top-24 RBs/WRs. The 2010 class was the only class in this series to have less than four, which was the average per year. It’s interesting to note that two of those, Nick Chubb and Phillip Lindsay, weren’t starters at the beginning of the season. This isn’t an uncommon phenomenon. Most recently, we saw Jeremy Hill, David Johnson, and Alvin Kamara take over after starting the season second or third string on the depth chart. Le’Veon Bell finished RB15 after missing…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2017 Draft Class

  The 2017 Draft class looks stacked. Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey have already finished No. 1 at their positions. Alvin Kamara already has as many 300-plus PPR seasons as Adrian Peterson has had in his entire career. George Kittle owns the TE receiving yardage record and JuJu Smith-Schuster has the most receptions for a WR under the age of 23 years old. If only every class started out like this. Here is the 2017 dynasty rookie class. If there’s blank space following a player’s name it means they didn’t finish inside the top-12 quarterbacks or tight ends or top-24 running…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2016 Draft Class

  If you’re just reading this series for the first time, this is an investigation of the actual hit rates of previous Dynasty rookie classes. Starting with 2010, there’s been some very productive classes and some more scattered with hits. The 2016 class is one of the latter. That doesn’t mean there weren’t some studs. Nobody is complaining about Ezekiel Elliot or Michael Thomas. Unfortunately, three years in, the picks in between the two and after haven’t lived up to expectations. Here is the 2016 dynasty rookie class. If there’s blank space following a player’s name it means they didn’t…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2015 Draft Class

  If you’ve been playing dynasty for several years now or following this series, you’re probably familiar with how good the 2014 class is. The RB classes since have been stellar. The WR classes have been spotty at best. Tons of shade thrown on teams that draft RBs in the 1st round. Zero shade on drafting WRs in the 1st. Not a good look for a position that “Matters”. pic.twitter.com/cbUIF5e6f8 — Jacob Rickrode (@ClutchFantasy) March 9, 2019 This tweet is tongue in cheek for the non-fantasy debate that “RBs don’t matter.” It does illustrate the lack of first-round WR production…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2014 Draft Class

  The 2014 draft class is the gold standard of draft classes. Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr. Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry and Brandin Cooks headline a very deep WR class. The early success of 2014 probably influenced NFL teams and Dynasty owners to reach at the position in the years following. Since 1990, there have been 109 WR seasons, age 26 or older, with 1,300 or more receiving yards. Compare this to the 48 WR seasons, age 25 or younger with 1,300 or more receiving yards over same time period. Five of the 48 WR seasons were from WRs in…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2013 Draft Class

This is the fourth draft class in a series on dynasty hit rates. The goal of this analysis is to find the real hit rates of players  and possibly some insights in future valuations. The 2010 class gave us several perennial studs, as did the 2011 class. The 2012 class was hit or miss past the QBs. I tweeted about 2012 and some very distinguished dynasty minds corrected my wording. Marvin Jones and Josh Gordon both are/have been very fantasy relevant. — Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) April 17, 2019 Josh Gordon and Marvin Jones Jr. have not only been fantasy relevant, they’ve…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2012 Draft Class

In 2012, six rookies finished top 12 at their position. The future was looking very bright for this class. Then it quickly fell off a cliff. 2013 first-round start up pick, Trent Richardson, just played in the AAF. Robert Griffin III is a backup QB while his backup QB, Kirk Cousins, is starting in Minnesota. Doug Martin and Alfred Morris remain unsigned having largely been non-factors for the last several years. Not all draft classes are equal. The 2012 Draft class produced very few true dynasty assets compared to 2010 and 2011. Here is the 2012 dynasty rookie class. If there’s…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2011 Draft Class

The 2011 class gave us A.J. Green and Julio Jones. For years, dynasty players have been hoarding rookie picks with expectations of drafting the next Green or Jones. The problem with this narrative is there isn’t a Green or Jones in every class. Also both players are still in the league. There are only 24 top spots available and both have finished in the top 24 nearly every year of their careers. Jones has a top 12 finish in six of eight seasons while Green has one in four of eight. Here is the 2011 dynasty rookie class. If there’s…...

The Obvious Outliers at Wide Receiver – An Easy Way to Profit in Redraft and Dynasty

The NFL is constantly evolving and yet history continues to repeat itself. You may have noticed most of the same wide receivers finish in the top producing spots every year. I wrote about this in 2016 and the trend hasn’t changed. I researched the top-24 PPR WRs since 2000 and discovered a small percentage are responsible for the overwhelming majority of fantasy production.  A lot of these WRs are connected to elite quarterbacks. Some, like Brandin Cooks, produced with several different QBs. To put it simply, the WRs that finished top 24 had a high(er) likelihood of doing it multiple…...

Tips for a Successful Dynasty Startup Draft

  There are a lot of ways to win in dynasty. Some dynasty owners will plan on losing the first few years while building “dream team” rosters. Others tend to overly focus on youth and/or highly touted rookies. There’s also the “get your guy” owner who will undoubtedly reach for a player often rounds ahead of ADP. You can almost bank on there being at least one of these owners in your start up draft, maybe more. These strategies can work but also create a vulnerability that is exploitable. Here are some principles to follow that have been proven to…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2018 Draft Class

  The 2018 class started out like most previous classes with four rookies finishing inside the PPR top-12 QBs/TEs or top-24 RBs/WRs. The 2010 class was the only class in this series to have less than four, which was the average per year. It’s interesting to note that two of those, Nick Chubb and Phillip Lindsay, weren’t starters at the beginning of the season. This isn’t an uncommon phenomenon. Most recently, we saw Jeremy Hill, David Johnson, and Alvin Kamara take over after starting the season second or third string on the depth chart. Le’Veon Bell finished RB15 after missing…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2017 Draft Class

  The 2017 Draft class looks stacked. Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey have already finished No. 1 at their positions. Alvin Kamara already has as many 300-plus PPR seasons as Adrian Peterson has had in his entire career. George Kittle owns the TE receiving yardage record and JuJu Smith-Schuster has the most receptions for a WR under the age of 23 years old. If only every class started out like this. Here is the 2017 dynasty rookie class. If there’s blank space following a player’s name it means they didn’t finish inside the top-12 quarterbacks or tight ends or top-24 running…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2016 Draft Class

  If you’re just reading this series for the first time, this is an investigation of the actual hit rates of previous Dynasty rookie classes. Starting with 2010, there’s been some very productive classes and some more scattered with hits. The 2016 class is one of the latter. That doesn’t mean there weren’t some studs. Nobody is complaining about Ezekiel Elliot or Michael Thomas. Unfortunately, three years in, the picks in between the two and after haven’t lived up to expectations. Here is the 2016 dynasty rookie class. If there’s blank space following a player’s name it means they didn’t…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2015 Draft Class

  If you’ve been playing dynasty for several years now or following this series, you’re probably familiar with how good the 2014 class is. The RB classes since have been stellar. The WR classes have been spotty at best. Tons of shade thrown on teams that draft RBs in the 1st round. Zero shade on drafting WRs in the 1st. Not a good look for a position that “Matters”. pic.twitter.com/cbUIF5e6f8 — Jacob Rickrode (@ClutchFantasy) March 9, 2019 This tweet is tongue in cheek for the non-fantasy debate that “RBs don’t matter.” It does illustrate the lack of first-round WR production…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2014 Draft Class

  The 2014 draft class is the gold standard of draft classes. Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr. Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry and Brandin Cooks headline a very deep WR class. The early success of 2014 probably influenced NFL teams and Dynasty owners to reach at the position in the years following. Since 1990, there have been 109 WR seasons, age 26 or older, with 1,300 or more receiving yards. Compare this to the 48 WR seasons, age 25 or younger with 1,300 or more receiving yards over same time period. Five of the 48 WR seasons were from WRs in…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2013 Draft Class

This is the fourth draft class in a series on dynasty hit rates. The goal of this analysis is to find the real hit rates of players  and possibly some insights in future valuations. The 2010 class gave us several perennial studs, as did the 2011 class. The 2012 class was hit or miss past the QBs. I tweeted about 2012 and some very distinguished dynasty minds corrected my wording. Marvin Jones and Josh Gordon both are/have been very fantasy relevant. — Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) April 17, 2019 Josh Gordon and Marvin Jones Jr. have not only been fantasy relevant, they’ve…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2012 Draft Class

In 2012, six rookies finished top 12 at their position. The future was looking very bright for this class. Then it quickly fell off a cliff. 2013 first-round start up pick, Trent Richardson, just played in the AAF. Robert Griffin III is a backup QB while his backup QB, Kirk Cousins, is starting in Minnesota. Doug Martin and Alfred Morris remain unsigned having largely been non-factors for the last several years. Not all draft classes are equal. The 2012 Draft class produced very few true dynasty assets compared to 2010 and 2011. Here is the 2012 dynasty rookie class. If there’s…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2011 Draft Class

The 2011 class gave us A.J. Green and Julio Jones. For years, dynasty players have been hoarding rookie picks with expectations of drafting the next Green or Jones. The problem with this narrative is there isn’t a Green or Jones in every class. Also both players are still in the league. There are only 24 top spots available and both have finished in the top 24 nearly every year of their careers. Jones has a top 12 finish in six of eight seasons while Green has one in four of eight. Here is the 2011 dynasty rookie class. If there’s…...

Tips for a Successful Dynasty Startup Draft

  There are a lot of ways to win in dynasty. Some dynasty owners will plan on losing the first few years while building “dream team” rosters. Others tend to overly focus on youth and/or highly touted rookies. There’s also the “get your guy” owner who will undoubtedly reach for…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2018 Draft Class

  The 2018 class started out like most previous classes with four rookies finishing inside the PPR top-12 QBs/TEs or top-24 RBs/WRs. The 2010 class was the only class in this series to have less than four, which was the average per year. It’s interesting to note that two of…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2017 Draft Class

  The 2017 Draft class looks stacked. Patrick Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey have already finished No. 1 at their positions. Alvin Kamara already has as many 300-plus PPR seasons as Adrian Peterson has had in his entire career. George Kittle owns the TE receiving yardage record and JuJu Smith-Schuster has the…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2016 Draft Class

  If you’re just reading this series for the first time, this is an investigation of the actual hit rates of previous Dynasty rookie classes. Starting with 2010, there’s been some very productive classes and some more scattered with hits. The 2016 class is one of the latter. That doesn’t…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2015 Draft Class

  If you’ve been playing dynasty for several years now or following this series, you’re probably familiar with how good the 2014 class is. The RB classes since have been stellar. The WR classes have been spotty at best. Tons of shade thrown on teams that draft RBs in the…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2014 Draft Class

  The 2014 draft class is the gold standard of draft classes. Mike Evans, Odell Beckham Jr. Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry and Brandin Cooks headline a very deep WR class. The early success of 2014 probably influenced NFL teams and Dynasty owners to reach at the position in the years…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2013 Draft Class

This is the fourth draft class in a series on dynasty hit rates. The goal of this analysis is to find the real hit rates of players  and possibly some insights in future valuations. The 2010 class gave us several perennial studs, as did the 2011 class. The 2012 class was…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2012 Draft Class

In 2012, six rookies finished top 12 at their position. The future was looking very bright for this class. Then it quickly fell off a cliff. 2013 first-round start up pick, Trent Richardson, just played in the AAF. Robert Griffin III is a backup QB while his backup QB, Kirk Cousins,…...

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2011 Draft Class

The 2011 class gave us A.J. Green and Julio Jones. For years, dynasty players have been hoarding rookie picks with expectations of drafting the next Green or Jones. The problem with this narrative is there isn’t a Green or Jones in every class. Also both players are still in the…...

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