This is the fourth draft class in a series on dynasty hit rates. The goal of this analysis is to find the real hit rates of players and possibly some insights in future valuations. The 2010 class gave us several perennial studs, as did the 2011 class. The 2012 class was hit or miss past the QBs.
I tweeted about 2012 and some very distinguished dynasty minds corrected my wording.
Marvin Jones and Josh Gordon both are/have been very fantasy relevant.— Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) April 17, 2019
Josh Gordon and Marvin Jones Jr. have not only been fantasy relevant, they’ve been HIGH END dynasty assets. Both have had startups ADPs inside the top 4 rounds within the past eight months. Gordon was once a first round startup pick. pic.twitter.com/3ctLs8984R— Curtis Patrick (@CPatrickNFL) April 17, 2019
Whether or not one year wonders like Josh Gordon or Marvin Jones have been truly “fantasy relevant” in dynasty is up for interpretation. The grids cut off at Top 12/24 PPR which does discriminate against players lacking multiple years of high-end production. It does however paint a unique perspective highlighting players that probably propelled dynasty teams with several years of positive results.
Here is the 2013 dynasty rookie class. If there’s blank space following a player’s name it means they didn’t finish inside the top-12 quarterbacks or tight ends or top-24 running backs or wide receivers in PPR that year. This table shows the first two rounds of 12-team dynasty ADP, plus any players drafted after Round 2 that finished top at their positions.
Fantasy is a weekly game and plenty of “white space players” contributed in small windows inside 16 game seasons. Keenan Allen was on a top-5-WR pace for eight games in 2015. Marvin Jones was also putting up top WR stats before going down in week 9 last year. In the context of dynasty though, rostering as many players as possible with several years of high-end production should be the end goal. Trade value is a different conversation.
The Perennial Studs
Le’Veon Bell, DeAndre Hopkins, and Travis Kelce are the epitome of what a true dynasty asset should look like. Zach Ertz is an example of TE breakouts like Greg Olsen, Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, and Martellus Bennett who surged in their mid-late 20’s.
Tavon Austin’s exceptional college career and tremendous combine which included 4.34 forty made him a top-10 pick for the Rams. It never really translated in fantasy. Montee Ball had draft position (2nd Round) and college production, then landed on the Peyton Manning led Denver Broncos. Second round pick Aaron Dobson was the Patriots selection after Wes Welker left in free agency. Even ideal situations don’t always pan out. Cordarrelle Patterson was a trendy early start-up pick in 2014 after some flashes as a rookie. He’s been mostly just a special teams player on his third team now. Dynasty darling, Christine Michael was quite often traded for a future first-round pick once upon a time.
Jordan Reed is the poster child for lights out fantasy play when healthy; same with Tyler Eifert. Marcus Lattimore and Jonathan Franklin retired from the NFL because of injury issues.
Keenan Allen and Robert Woods
Allen was considered injury prone, having missed eight games in 2015 and the entire season to an ACL tear in 2016. Allen’s 21-year-old rookie year was pretty remarkable. His 2015 season should have been reason alone to buy back in. Few remember that Hopkins actually had an off year in 2016 too. Robert Woods is an outlier. Woods joins Marvin Jones, James Jones, Kevin Walter and Nate Washington as the only WRs over the last two decades to have their first top-24 finish in year 6. Marvin Jones and Woods hit after signing to a new team. Sometimes a change of scenery can help.
Still some left in the Tank?
Latavius Murray just signed as the replacement to departed Mark Ingram. The Saints No. 2 RB has a ton of goal-line opportunity and will probably be on some Zero-RB lists. Gio Bernard filled in admirably for Joe Mixon last year and may be worth a roster spot. C.J. Anderson played well for the Rams in 2018. He too may be worth kicking the tires on.
Are some of these drafts a reminder of talent that didn’t translate? Yes, definitely. There’s nothing better than catching a perennial stud as a rookie though.