If you’re just reading this series for the first time, this is an investigation of the actual hit rates of previous Dynasty rookie classes. Starting with 2010, there’s been some very productive classes and some more scattered with hits. The 2016 class is one of the latter. That doesn’t mean there weren’t some studs. Nobody is complaining about Ezekiel Elliot or Michael Thomas. Unfortunately, three years in, the picks in between the two and after haven’t lived up to expectations.
Here is the 2016 dynasty rookie class. If there’s blank space following a player’s name it means they didn’t finish inside the top-12 quarterbacks or tight ends or top-24 running backs or wide receivers in PPR that year. This table shows the first two rounds of 12-team dynasty ADP, plus any players drafted after Round 2 that finished top at their positions.
The Perennial Studs
Not much needs to be said and Zeke and Thomas. You’re drafting them early in startups and commanding a ton of value in trades. Tyreek Hill’s future in Kansas City is uncertain. He’s been nothing short of tremendous after going mostly undrafted in fantasy as a rookie.
After somewhat rocky rookie years, Carson Wentz and Jared Goff are now top-12 ranked dynasty QBs. There’s hope for some of 2018’s rookie QBs while Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winson have not fared as well. Wentz was the top-rated dynasty QB on a lot of lists heading into 2018. It’s a reminder of how quickly perception can change in dynasty. Having not missed the top 12, Dak Prescott has been excellent for a late third rounder. Quarterback rushing points still often go underlooked in propelling QB scoring.
Jordan Howard has been a pleasant surprise hit for a second-round rookie pick. He’s landed in a true RBBC situation in Philadelphia. Kenyan Drake could finally get opportunity to produce big in 2019 after hitting last year.
Derrick Henry may be on the Mark Ingram career track.
It’s time to buy low on Derrick Henry
Mark Ingram at same point of career
37 games, 12 starts
4.1ypc, 1462yds, 24rec, 143yds, 11TDs
38 games, 11 starts
4.1ypc, 1507yds, 30rec, 322yds, 12TDs
— Jacob Rickrode (@ClutchFantasy) October 24, 2018
The 2020 Giants QB is still undetermined. Sterling Shepard has all the looks of a dependable slot WR in head coach Pat Shurmur’s quick pass offense that made Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen fantasy stars. His buy window is probably right now.
Tyler Boyd fulfilled the third-year WR breakout which used to be the norm. RotoViz writer Hasan Rahim penned him as a buy low target in 2017.
Will Fuller has missed 17 games in his three-year career. He’s scored 13 TDs in 31 games and made the entire offense better when he’s been on the field.
Deshaun Waton's splits without Will Fuller
— Michael Dubner (@Michael_Dubner) October 26, 2018
Robby Anderson finished as WR18 in 2017. He flashed in a couple games with Sam Darnold last year too. He’s an interesting hold in dynasty.
It’s well known that TEs often take years to develop. Hunter Henry should still be on your dynasty target list. Over the two season in which he appeared in a game, no TE with at least 50 targets had a higher receiving success rate, and only Rob Gronkowski had more receiving fantasy points over expectation per attempt (reFPOEPA). Only Gronk and Travis Kelce had more total reFPOE.