revolutionary tools.  groundbreaking articles.  proven results.

Dynasty Hit Rates: 2016 Draft Class


If you’re just reading this series for the first time, this is an investigation of the actual hit rates of previous Dynasty rookie classes. Starting with 2010, there’s been some very productive classes and some more scattered with hits. The 2016 class is one of the latter. That doesn’t mean there weren’t some studs. Nobody is complaining about Ezekiel Elliot or Michael Thomas. Unfortunately, three years in, the picks in between the two and after haven’t lived up to expectations.

Here is the 2016 dynasty rookie class. If there’s blank space following a player’s name it means they didn’t finish inside the top-12 quarterbacks or tight ends or top-24 running backs or wide receivers in PPR that year. This table shows the first two rounds of 12-team dynasty ADP, plus any players drafted after Round 2 that finished top at their positions.

The Perennial Studs

Not much needs to be said and Zeke and Thomas. You’re drafting them early in startups and commanding a ton of value in trades. Tyreek Hill’s future in Kansas City is uncertain. He’s been nothing short of tremendous after going mostly undrafted in fantasy as a rookie.

The QBs

After somewhat rocky rookie years, Carson Wentz and Jared Goff are now top-12 ranked dynasty QBs. There’s hope for some of 2018’s rookie QBs while Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winson have not fared as well. Wentz was the top-rated dynasty QB on a lot of lists heading into 2018. It’s a reminder of how quickly perception can change in dynasty. Having not missed the top 12, Dak Prescott has been excellent for a late third rounder. Quarterback rushing points still often go underlooked in propelling QB scoring.

The RBs

Jordan Howard has been a pleasant surprise hit for a second-round rookie pick. He’s landed in a true RBBC situation in Philadelphia. Kenyan Drake could finally get opportunity to produce big in 2019 after hitting last year.

Derrick Henry may be on the Mark Ingram career track.


The 2020 Giants QB is still undetermined. Sterling Shepard  has all the looks of a dependable slot WR in head coach Pat Shurmur’s quick pass offense that made Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen fantasy stars. His buy window is probably right now.

Tyler Boyd fulfilled the third-year WR breakout which used to be the norm. RotoViz writer Hasan Rahim penned him as a buy low target in 2017.

Will Fuller has missed 17 games in his three-year career. He’s scored 13 TDs in 31 games and made the entire offense better when he’s been on the field.

Robby Anderson finished as WR18 in 2017. He flashed in a couple games with Sam Darnold last year too. He’s an interesting hold in dynasty.

The TEs

It’s well known that TEs often take years to develop. Hunter Henry should still be on your dynasty target list. Over the two season in which he appeared in a game, no TE with at least 50 targets had a higher receiving success rate, and only Rob Gronkowski had more receiving fantasy points over expectation per attempt (reFPOEPA). Only Gronk and Travis Kelce had more total reFPOE.

recent and related...

in case you missed it...

Dollars Per Opportunity: Betting On Positive Regression

Opportunity, opportunity, opportunity — that’s what fantasy football is all about. Each week I utilize our GLSP projections to find the best DFS values from a dollar-per-opportunity perspective with a focus on Yahoo! DFS. Congratulations if you came out of the Week 2 injury barrage unscathed. Weeks like that are

Read More

College Football Confident Cash Plays: Week 4

Welcome to another edition of the 2019 Confident Cash Plays Series! Things have been going great so far with the Confident Cash Plays! The ideal lineup from our player pools have hit at least 220 points every week with a full slate! Let’s see if we can keep the momentum

Read More

Bracket Busting: Living that Zero RB Life

Your running backs suck. That’s the harsh reality Zero RB drafters often have to deal with through the first few weeks of the season. Sometimes you get lucky and those late RBs you drafted are usable right away during the season. Other times, it may take several weeks and some

Read More

Week 3 DraftKings DFS Targets: Josh Allen Is in a Smash Spot

Games To Attack This weekly piece is being submitted a little later than normal this week, and there is a news cycle reason for that. I wanted to be sure Cam Newton was ruled out and that the Panthers would have an upgrade at quarterback in Kyle Allen ($4,000). It’s no

Read More

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.