Last August, I wrote about Matt Ryan’s bad season discount. At the time, Ryan had an ADP of QB20. It seemed too obvious to me that Ryan was a huge value, having finished in the top 10 in five of six years prior to 2015. He went on to finish as the QB3 in 2016…....

  Every year there are several players that outperform their ADPs. These are players that have a history of producing big stats but are coming off a bad or injury filled season. Their draft price is depressed as a result…....

All 2016 predictions that follow are in PPR scoring. If you’re still playing in standard scoring leagues, it’s time to take off the training wheels…....

Yearly positional ranking has become the backbone of my preseason analysis for several reasons. It has dynasty and redraft application. It gives a nice snap shot of how a player compares to the rest of the league. Looking at stats by year can be overwhelming whereas the positional ranking simplifies things by using a single number…....

This article is a nod to Matthew Berry’s annual 100 Fantasy Football Facts which has long been a preseason must read. As Berry states in his articles, these numbers can be skewed several different ways. There’s always more to the story, but facts are facts…....

The third play caller in this series doesn’t have the name recognition of others. He really should though. Chan Gailey has a nice history of fantasy producers that have flown under the radar in drafts. Gailey’s Coaching History Offensive Coordinator Pittsburgh Steelers 1996-1997 Head Coach Dallas Cowboys 1998-1999 Offensive Coordinator Miami Dolphins 2000-2001 Offensive Coordinator Kansas City Chiefs 2008 Head Coach Buffalo Bills 2010-2012 Offensive Coordinator…...

Drew Brees will be 37 years old this season. If this causes you any pause, allow me to remind you that another 37-year-old, Peyton Manning, holds the single season passing yardage and touchdown records (5477 yards, 55 TDs)…....

The theme of this series is displaying how play calling has and will often elevate certain players to top scoring fantasy seasons. Marc Trestman is the subject of an unusually strong coaching narrative. Once you see his play calling history you may be convinced there’s a lot of truth to the narrative. Jerry Rice’s best statistical season was in 1995 at age 33. That year, he totaled 122 receptions…...

This is the beginning of a series that examines play calling and its correlation with the top scoring seasons. DeAngelo Williams and Darren McFadden were late round or waiver wire picks in 2015. C.J. Anderson and Justin Forsett were the same in 2014. All four were difference making, potentially league winning players who played for some of the coaches that will be highlighted in this…...

Sammy Watkins is one of the most talented wide receivers in the league. He’s been compared to Amari Cooper and now joins an Elite Cohort of WRs who have broken their feet. So why have I been fading him all along? I was fading Sammy before the news of his broken foot came out because he plays for Rex Ryan. My Twitter rants against Watkins…...

I’m obsessed with hitting on my first round pick in fantasy drafts. I play in high stakes leagues and there’s nothing worse than shelling out a big entry fee only to see your top pick bust…....

While doing research for my podcast, @ffgametheory with Graham Barfield, I came to the startling realization of how deep the wide receiver position is currently. The 2014 class has really created a log jam of talented WRs that the league may have never seen…....

A brief exploration of coaching and PPR scoring trends. I often hear people talk about the “coaching narrative.” How much does play calling matter for the top scoring players? I decided to find out if there is any correlation between play calling/coaching and the top fantasy players. There are some visible historical trends in the grids that follow. Below are the top 12 non-QB scoring PPR players…...

The latest news from Dallas indicates a committee approach at running back. This shouldn’t be a huge surprise as the difficulty of replacing a workhorse back like Demarco Murray is understated. James Todd wrote this about Dallas OC Scott Linehan’s RB history last off season. “When the runners appear roughly similar in talent, he (Linehan) splits the workload up more evenly.” While the various pieces…...

According to Fantasy Pros, the consensus second-ranked player in PPR is none other than Adrian Peterson. On the surface this makes sense given that Peterson is a sensational athlete. Is that enough to make him worthy of an early first round pick though? Here is why I won’t be drafting AP in 2015 at his current ADP. Peterson will be 30.5 years old when the…...

This is a continuation of a series covering the top scoring PPR finishes of the past 15 years. The Quarterback position is the easiest to predict year after year; the same QBs have dominated the top spots. There are patterns in positional ranking which makes it an interesting metric for predicting future success. The Quick stats From 2000-2014, 15 NFL seasons: PPR scoring (Passing TD 4 pts,…...

If you ever played in a High Stakes league you may have noticed a different dynamic from your home or office league. The competition actually cares about beating you – unlike the guy in the next cubicle who drafted a kicker in the eighth round. I reference High Stakes because there’s generally less margin of error in a league where you can expect all owners…...

You’re familiar with the “Name Brand” but did you know the “Store Brand” can often be just as effective? No need to always overpay for the Name Brand when the less expensive store brand will get the job done just the same. The following is a list of players with very similar 2014 stats but different ADPs. All ADPs taken from Rotoviz Best Ball ADP…....