Top Performers with a Bad Season Discount
TE Projections

 

Every year there are several players that outperform their ADPs. These are players that have a history of producing big stats but are coming off a bad or injury filled season. Their draft price is depressed as a result.

Cam Newton finished as the QB17 in 2014. Heading into 2015, he was often drafted outside the top 12 QBs. During the three years prior Newton had not finished outside the top 6 QBs. You’re aware of how big Cam was to any team that rostered him in 2015.

Here’s a list of players with similar history that seem to have the same bad/injured season discount this year. The grids that follow are the PPR finishes by year and ADP according to current Best Ball ADP.

QBs

Matt Ryan – ADP QB20

09′ 10′ 11′ 12′ 13′ 14′ 15′
Matt Ryan 19 10 8 6 10 7 18

Matt Ryan has never been spectacular but he consistently throws for 4500+ yards and has one of the best WRs in the game. New addition Mohamed Sanu can’t hurt. Expect Ryan to best his ADP and don’t be surprised if he’s a QB1 again.

WRs

Jordy Nelson – ADP WR12

08′ 09′ 10′ 11′ 12′ 13′ 14′ 15′
Jordy Nelson 80 95 62 4 38 13 3

Not a huge discount, but when healthy he’s finished top 5 twice. Jordy Nelson suffered an ACL tear in August last year and missed the entire season. Jeremy Maclin suffered an ACL tear in August of 2013 and bounced back to a WR9 finish the following year. Jerry Rice tore his ACL in 1997 at age 35. The following season Rice caught 82 receptions, 1157 yards and 9 TDs. No, I’m not comparing Nelson to the Greatest of All Time. I’m simply showing another 30+ aged WR that overcame the same injury. Nelson is five years younger than Rice with nearly 20 years of improved knee surgery on his side. Plenty to be optimistic about.

DeSean Jackson – ADP WR39

Torrey Smith – ADP WR44

Mike Wallace – ADP WR 64

08′ 09′ 10′ 11′ 12′ 13′ 14′ 15′
Torrey Smith 30 28 23 29 54
Mike Wallace 35 9 9 23 27 20 74
DeSean Jackson 31 11 21 29 61 12 23 66

When healthy, the undervalued DJAX has never finished worse than top 31. He’s not yet 30 years old and should be the WR1 in Washington.

Torrey Smith has always been at least a WR3 previously and now gets to play for Chip Kelly who always has a top 16 WR. Smith is a RotoViz favorite target.

Mike Wallace gets Torrey Smith’s ex QB Joe Flacco and league winning play caller Marc Trestman. Wallace is only one year removed from a top 20 season and the competition for targets in Baltimore isn’t exactly daunting. All three should outperform their ADPs.

TEs

Jason Witten – ADP TE15

03′ 04′ 05′ 06′ 07′ 08′ 09′ 10′ 11′ 12′ 13′ 14′ 15′
Jason Witten 20 3 7 8 1 2 5 1 5 3 6 9 10

Witten is no spring chicken at age 34 but does it matter? Ben Watson just finished as the TE7 at age 34. Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzales were getting it done past age 35. Witten has had less than 100 targets only twice in the last decade. He still figures to be Tony Romo’s trusted second option behind Dez Bryant.  RotoDoc is pegging Witten for a TE6 finish.

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