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The Rundown: Week 3 Fantasy Football News and Notes

In the News

RotoViz recently earned a pair of mentions in different outlets. 14TeamMocker got a shoutout on NFL.com related to his advocacy on behalf of the fantasy prospects of Leonard Hankerson. Taking a quick look at the Fantasy Efficiency App, we see that Hankerson is comfortably ahead of Roddy White by any measure.

NAME OFF TRGS TRGMS reEP reFPOE reFPOEPT
Julio Jones ATL 26 0.325 37.16 24.44 0.94
Leonard Hankerson ATL 15 0.188 21.54 1.76 0.12
Roddy White ATL 9 0.112 12.95 -0.55 -0.06

Aaron Butler has more in this week’s waiver wire report.

RotoViz also earned a brief mention from McKinsey and Company, a respected management consulting firm. The linked article takes a close look at some significant issues confronting the Daily Fantasy Sports industry, and is worth a read.

Meet the New Apps, Same as the Old Apps

The Buy Low Machine and Streaming D apps are up and running for the 2015 season. Keep in mind that the guidance offered by both apps will improve as the season progresses and more data is available.

The Buy Low Machine serves two purposes; first, to identify potential trade targets, and second, to help with start/sit decisions. For example, the teams with the best wide receiver matchups for the next two weeks are the Jets and Rams. That might help tip the scales in favor of picking up Quincy Enunwa, who could have a valuable role if Eric Decker misses time. Likewise, now might be a good time to get Brian Quick on the cheap; if he returns to action this week he’s got a pair of easy matchups in which to establish value. Or if you own Quick and he does produce over the next two weeks, you might be abe to move or package him for something else.

Going for Two

The Steelers have opted for two point conversion attempts instead of extra points three times in the first two games of the season. Ben Roethlisberger says they’ll continue to do so – often. So far, all three of the Steelers’ 2-point attempts have been successful, and all three have been passes. In most fantasy leagues, that’s produced an extra six points for Roethlisberger. Two-point pass recipients Markus Wheaton, Heath Miller, and Antonio Brown halve also benefited from extra scoring they wouldn’t have gotten last season. Brown has no problem generating fantasy points aplenty, but the two point play provided a significant boost to Wheaton and Miller’s fantasy production. In week 1, Wheaton’s two point play accounted for 19 percent of his PPR output. Miller’s week 2 conversion accounted for 17 percent of his weekly output.

I don’t think you can bank on certain players getting consistent two point play production yet, but at the team level it seems like the Steelers can be relied on to go for two on a regular basis. That might help sway a start/sit decision in favor of a Steeler.

What’s really interesting though is that few teams are consistently going for two. So far, teams are a combined 8 of 15 on two point conversions, good for a 53 percent success rate. Another way to look at it is that a two point conversion attempt has an expected value of 1.1 points. Extra points are converted at a much higher rate – 94 percent – but that’s down from over 99 percent in recent seasons. And an extra point try has an expected value of just 0.94 points.

Coby Fleener

The Colts offense is in a bit of disarray, and the team has recently said it would like to involve its tight ends more. So far Dwayne Allen and Fleener have just seven combined targets. That’s fewer than Jacob Tamme and Anthony Fasano, for pete’s sake. With Allen likely to miss week 3 (surprise, he’s injured), Fleener could benefit in a great matchup.

Tevin Coleman

Has a broken rib, but Rotoworld reports Coleman could play soon. Still, the Falcons have what looks to be two tough matchups for running backs pending. If you believe in Coleman, like I do, then there might be a buying opportunity soon, if Coleman either misses time or doesn’t produce well in the next couple of weeks.

Blind Resume

Name Att MS ruEP ruFPOE ruFPOEPA Tar MS reEP reFPOE reFPOEPT
Starter 29 0.60 10.99 0.11 0 11 0.14 14.15 -3.65 -0.33
Backup A 10 0.21 3.71 -0.21 -0.02 2 0.03 2.9 -0.3 -0.15
Backup B 7 0.28 2.92 6.48 0.93 3 0.07 4.42 -0.22 -0.07

This team’s starting RB is neutral as a runner and very negative as a receiver: only five RBs with five or more targets have worse per-target efficiency. So perhaps this starter leaves something to be desired.

Granted, both backups have gotten very little work. But one has been more involved, and has been much more efficient as a runner and receiver than either the starter or the other backup. All of Backup B’s work came in his team’s second game (he missed the first game recovering from a training camp injury), whereas Backup A received no rushing attempts in the game Backup B also appeared in. That suggests the coaching staff might like Backup B better.

If you wanted to take some work away from the starter and give it to one of the backups, which would you choose? Or more importantly, if you were looking for a RB to pick up on waivers, which backup would you choose? Hint: it’s Backup B. Okay, here’s the big reveal.

Name Att MS ruEP ruFPOE ruFPOEPA Tar MS reEP reFPOE reFPOEPT
Justin Forsett 29 0.60 10.99 0.11 0 11 0.14 14.15 -3.65 -0.33
Javorius Allen 10 0.21 3.71 -0.21 -0.02 2 0.03 2.9 -0.3 -0.15
Lorenzo Taliaferro 7 0.28 2.92 6.48 0.93 3 0.07 4.42 -0.22 -0.07

These are small samples but it’s worth keeping an eye on.

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