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Dynasty Stock Watch: Quarterbacks and Tight Ends

A few weeks ago, we got together and did a dynasty startup mock draft. Here’s a quick look at some players who were drafted much higher – or lower – than they were in preseason startup drafts.

One big caveat before we start. The August ADP comes from our excellent Dynasty ADP App. In turn, the App gets its data from the 130 dynasty startup drafts hosted by My Fantasy League in August. The November ADP comes from just our single mock draft. So the August ADP really represents “the market,” and our November ADP represents the current opinions of just a few analysts. Still, the discrepancies might help you reconsider your own valuations of players, and get a sense of whose value is rising or falling. The full table is at the bottom of the article.

Quarterbacks

Risers

Player AUG NOV DIFF
Dalton, Andy 170 61 109
Taylor, Tyrod 222.2 138 84.2
Brady, Tom 104.7 39 65.7

Shawn Siegele turned me on to Andy Dalton way back in 2013. We also argued for Dalton last season. This year, with a healthy complement of weapons, he’s QB5. From his stable of weapons, only Marvin Jones is a free agent next year, and Dalton has several years remaining on his contract. I’d invest in Dalton with confidence.

Tyrod Taylor has bounced around the league for a while, and has missed some time due to injury this year. Still, he’s averaging 22.6 points/game and doesn’t seem threatened by EJ Manuel. Buffalo actually has a first round draft pick however, and Taylor’s contract is very inexpensive.1 So there’s a good chance he’s supplanted soon. I’m willing to bet that he’s not the next Russell Wilson. I won’t kick him off my roster, but I’m not giving up anything valuable to acquire him.

Tom Brady’s preseason ADP was tempered by his suspension and also probably his age. No worries, he’s QB1 for the season. Even over the past three weeks, missing multiple weapons, he’s a top-10 fantasy QB. The big issue is the possibility of a Peyton Manning-esque plummet off the age cliff. I like him, but not quite this much. In fact…I think I’d rather have Dalton.

Fallers

Player AUG NOV DIFF
Kaepernick, Colin 140 400 -260
Griffin III, Robert 193.6 400 -206.4
Garoppolo, Jimmy 203 400 -197

Our November startup draft only went 20 rounds; many players probably would have been drafted if we went further.2 Here at RotoViz, we’ve also probably got an institutional bias against rostering multiple QBs. That said, these three names represent interesting opportunities.

There’s no denying that Colin Kaepernick had a dreadful season – not to mention an injury and uncertain job status. But he’s been a useful fantasy asset in the past, and it’s hard to see him losing all of his value. As an uber-cheap bench stash or trade throw in, you could do worse. But I’d rather have the next guy, I think.

Robert Griffin is in a similar yet very different situation. He’s fully healthy, but Washington won’t let him anywhere near the field because of the injury guarantees in his contract. It seems almost certain that Washington will get rid of him one way or another – which means he’ll get a chance somewhere else. The truth is that he’s probably not as great as he looked in his rookie season, but he’s probably not as bad as Washington makes him out to be either. I think he’ll definitely get a chance to start again, and if he stays healthy, could be a useful QB.

I don’t really want any part of Jimmy Garoppolo. I mean, I think Brady is much nearer the end than the beginning of his career, so there’s a chance Garoppolo could start…some day. But unlike Kaepernick and Griffin, who seem likely to get another shot next year, I don’t see that for Garoppolo. It seems like he’ll need to wait more than a year, and in that case, who knows what other QBs New England will draft or bring in. This fall in value seems totally justified, and hopefully you weren’t someone who drafted him in August.

Tight Ends

Risers

Player AUG NOV DIFF
Barnidge, Gary 286.8 140 146.8
Eifert, Tyler 101.1 18 83.1
Walford, Clive 188.2 117 71.2

Gary Barnidge is the new Delanie Walker. A previously off-the-radar veteran who moves to a crappy new team and becomes a TE1. Barnidge is a free agent after this season, so much depends on his landing spot. But given that TEs can remain productive well into their 30s, it’s certainly possible that Barnidge produces more usable fantasy seasons. And like Delanie Walker, it’s likely that fantasy owners will continue to undervalue him due to his lack of pedigree. I’d hold or try to acquire on the cheap.

Did you notice that Tyler Eifert was drafted with the 18th overall pick in our startup draft? That’s mid-second round. I don’t think that I’d take him quite that high, but the fact is that he’s having a monster year. He also has the draft pedigree to back up the idea that he’s a really good TE. Since joining the league in 2012, the only TEs with better per-target efficiency3 are Julius Thomas (0.63), Ladarius Green (0.56), and Travis Kelce (0.51). Eifert’s 0.50 score comes in just ahead of Rob Gronkowski’s 0.49. Oh, and he’s just 25 years old. Same age as Green, younger than Kelce and Gronk. The case for Eifert as a premium dynasty asset seems to be making itself.

I’m not sure what to make of Clive Walford’s rise in value. His snap counts have risen over the course of the season, apparently at the expense of Mychal Rivera. He’s decently efficient (0.35 per target) for a TE, especially for a rookie. Last year’s top three rookie TEs managed 0.05 (Jace Amaro), -0.05 (Austin Seferian-Jenkins), and -0.3 (Eric Ebron) scores. Walford is also attached to a decent young QB. But I’m not sure he’s better than Coby Fleener, Jordan Reed, or Barnidge, all of whom went after him. I’ll take my chances elsewhere.

Fallers

Player AUG NOV DIFF
Hill, Josh 140.8 400 -259.2
Davis, Vernon 178.3 400 -221.7
Donnell, Larry 179.6 400 -220.4

Ouch. I wanted to love Josh Hill. Okay, I did love Josh Hill. Apparently Sean Payton doesn’t love Josh Hill. The worst part is that Payton told us in the preseason that Hill was the secondary option and Ben Watson was the starter. Did I listen? Of course not. Lesson (hopefully) learned. Coaches don’t always tell us the truth, but we also shouldn’t ignore what they’re saying. That said, I’d still be willing to take a late flier on Hill. He’s still just 25 years old, and has good athleticism. Both he and Watson are free agents after this year, so there’s a chance Hill gets more opportunity next year, wherever he lands.

Vernon Davis seems done to me. Does he seem done to you? 2013 was a long time ago. 2012, 2014, and 2015 have been kinda shitty. Moving on.

Larry Donnell always seemed like just a guy who happened into some opportunity. Seems like Will Tye is just as good? A free agent after the season, there’s a chance Donnell finds opportunity elsewhere…but I’m not banking on it. Like Davis, I’d get what I can for him – if anything – and move on.

Data Dump

Here’s the table for all QBs and TEs. Remember, “400” just means the player wasn’t drafted. Our November mock draft is also a shorter, single data point, so keep that in mind. Still, I think you’ll find some interesting value changes. Stay tuned for running back and wide receiver analysis.

PlayerPOSAUGNOVDIFF
Allen, DwayneTE130.8192-61.2
Allen, RashaunTE226.6400-173.4
Amaro, JaceTE183.3212-28.7
Barnidge, GaryTE286.8140146.8
Bell, BlakeTE225.3400-174.7
Bennett, MartellusTE78.588-9.5
Bibbs, E.JTE244.3400-155.7
Bortles, BlakeQB160.513624.5
Bradford, SamQB126.7219-92.3
Brady, TomQB104.73965.7
Brees, DrewQB74.9119-44.1
Bridgewater, TeddyQB92.2169-76.8
Cameron, JordanTE95.4139-43.6
Carr, DerekQB138.711127.7
Carrier, DerekTE263400-137
Cassel, MattQB237.7400-162.3
Celek, BrentTE251400-149
Chandler, ScottTE238.8400-161.2
Clay, CharlesTE179.416811.4
Cook, JaredTE204.3400-195.7
Cousins, KirkQB224.3400-175.7
Cutler, JayQB173.9193-19.1
Dalton, AndyQB17061109
Daniels, OwenTE154.5400-245.5
Davis, VernonTE178.3400-221.7
Donnell, LarryTE179.6400-220.4
Ebron, EricTE119.39029.3
Eifert, TylerTE101.11883.1
Ertz, ZachTE88.2112-23.8
Escobar, GavinTE221.82201.8
Fauria, JosephTE285400-115
Fiedorowicz, C.JTE242.8400-157.2
Fitzpatrick, RyanQB209.8222-12.2
Flacco, JoeQB147.8174-26.2
Fleener, CobyTE159.613227.6
Foles, NickQB172.7400-227.3
Garoppolo, JimmyQB203400-197
Gates, AntonioTE157.9199-41.1
Gillmore, CrockettTE229.62245.6
Graham, GarrettTE236.7400-163.3
Graham, JimmyTE31.886-54.2
Grayson, GarrettTE234.2400-165.8
Green, LadariusTE146.79848.7
Green, VirgilTE204.2400-195.8
Gresham, JermaineTE226400-174
Griffin III, RobertQB193.6400-206.4
Gronkowski, RobTE15.7510.7
Heuerman, JeffTE262400-138
Hill, JoshTE140.8400-259.2
Housler, RobertTE240.2400-159.8
Hoyer, BrianQB219.7234-14.3
Hundley, BrettQB258400-142
James, JesseTE211.4240-28.6
Kaepernick, ColinQB140400-260
Kelce, TravisTE47.151-3.9
Kroft, TylerTE257.5400-142.5
Luck, AndrewQB8.429-20.6
Mallett, RyanQB249.6400-150.4
Manning, EliQB116.5129-12.5
Manning, PeytonQB76.3186-109.7
Manuel, E.JQB260.5400-139.5
Manziel, JohnnyQB204.717331.7
Mariota, MarcusQB109.9113-3.1
McCarron, A.JQB256.1400-143.9
McCown, JoshQB267.5400-132.5
Mettenberger, ZachQB228.8400-171.2
Miller, HeathTE187.4400-212.6
Newton, CamQB63.33528.3
Niklas, TroyTE293.8400-106.2
Olsen, GregTE60.4600.4
Osweiler, BrockQB207.215354.2
Palmer, CarsonQB177.11752.1
Paul, NilesTE228.618543.6
Petty, BryceQB229.1400-170.9
Pitta, DennisTE281400-119
Pruitt, MyColeTE222.220517.2
Quarless, AndrewTE241.7400-158.3
Reed, JordanTE163.813528.8
Rivera, MychalTE210.2400-189.8
Rivers, PhilipQB115.6144-28.4
Rodgers, AaronQB16.931-14.1
Rodgers, RichardTE176.915422.9
Roethlisberger, BenQB64.3105-40.7
Romo, TonyQB93.8161-67.2
Rudolph, KyleTE130.9201-70.1
Ryan, MattQB63.7126-62.3
Sanchez, MarkQB231.1400-168.9
Seferian-Jenkins, AustinTE105.29411.2
Sims, DionTE263.8400-136.2
Smith, AlexQB196.71951.7
Smith, GenoQB218.9400-181.1
Stafford, MatthewQB77.5157-79.5
Tamme, JacobTE230.6400-169.4
Tannehill, RyanQB78.1148-69.9
Taylor, TyrodQB222.213884.2
Tebow, Tim DENQB239.1400-160.9
Thomas, JuliusTE77.3172-94.7
Toilolo, LevineTE280.6400-119.4
Walford, CliveTE188.211771.2
Walker, DelanieTE130.3150-19.7
Watson, BenTE227.620324.6
Williams, MaxxTE129.9147-17.1
Wilson, RussellQB36.2125-88.8
Winston, JameisQB105.9124-18.1
Witten, JasonTE119.9176-56.1
Wright, TimTE288.9400-111.1

  1. Fifty-fourth highest of 91 QB contracts, according to Over the Cap.  (back)
  2. “400” just denotes that the player was undrafted.  (back)
  3. Minimum 50 targets.  (back)
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