This is a continuation of a series looking at which players won My Fantasy League MFL10s in 2015. If you’re unfamiliar with the format, you’ll find many of the lessons applicable to regular redraft leagues as well.
Before we go too far, I’ll make this disclaimer for the entire series: past results don’t necessarily predict future results. As the MFL10 community incorporates last year’s lessons, certain exploitable inefficiencies may be eroded, and new ones evolve. Don’t worry, we’ll be covering that in real time too. That said, I think there are some things we can take away from last year.
Hat tip to Fantasy Douche for getting the data compiled,1 and RotoDoc for helping me wrap my head around it. The table tells us the average finish for franchises that drafted each tight end. More importantly, the win percentage column tells us the likelihood that a franchise rostering that TE won its league.
Let’s take a quick look at TEs that won last year’s MFL10s. We’re going to focus much more on the win percentage, since that’s the goal.
|Reed, Jordan WAS||4.78||0.192||174.2||16|
|Walker, Delanie TEN||4.83||0.173||119.05||10|
|Eifert, Tyler CIN||5.63||0.136||117.98||10|
|Olsen, Greg CAR||5.52||0.128||59.83||5|
|Watson, Ben NOS||5.5||0.107||213.56||19|
|Gates, Antonio SDC||5.97||0.103||142.05||12|
|Rodgers, Richard GBP||6.06||0.1||195.83||17|
|Gronkowski, Rob NEP||5.87||0.094||8.35||1|
|Cook, Jared STL||6.29||0.092||210.18||19|
|Miller, Heath PIT||6.2||0.089||171.36||15|
|Rudolph, Kyle MIN||6.25||0.085||134.56||12|
- There were 15 tight ends that offered a greater-than-random (8.3 percent) win percentage. I guess that speaks to positional depth.
- In some ways, it didn’t really matter when you drafted a TE. For the most part, win percentage was relatively flat across ADP. But in other ways, it really did matter when you selected a TE. Notice that the win rates over 8.3 percent are clustered in just a few rounds.
- In 16 of the draft’s 20 rounds, no TE offered greater than a random chance of winning. It’s still possible that taking a TE in some particular round was the right thing to do – if the other available positions had even lower win rates for example – and I’ll look at that in a future post.
- But if, for the most part, round of selection didn’t matter, then you may as well have waited and taken players at different positions in the earlier rounds.
- Perhaps another takeaway here is that targeting the right player was more important than targeting the right round.
- Ben Watson gave drafters a double bonus. Not only did he produce a lot of fantasy points, but his low ownership – selected just 600 times out of roughly 2,200 drafts- provided owners with some nice portfolio diversification.
- Other than Watson, I excluded a few TEs with high win rates but really low ownership levels: Scott Chandler, Jacob Tamme, and Niles Paul. All three had ADPs higher than pick 216. In other words, these were all round 19 or 20 selections. So I think their high win percentages had less to do with their own performance and more to do with the fact that choosing them was a better move than one of the remaining defenses for example.
- Not sure what to make about Rob Gronkowski slotting in between Richard Rodgers and Jared Cook. Gronk still paid off for owners with one of the better win rates…but there were better TEs this year.
- Greg Olsen was a better pick in round five, Delanie Walker and Tyler Eifert were better in round 10, and Jordan Reed was better in round 16.
- Interestingly, our TE Sim App gives the four highest projections for 2016 to: Gronkowski, Reed, Walker, and Eifert. Walker, Reed, and Olsen also come in with below-average volatility for the position.
- I’m using data for MFL10s from June-September, 2015. (back)