This is the continuation of a series looking at which players won My Fantasy League MFL10s in 2015. If you’re unfamiliar with the format, you’ll find many of the lessons applicable to regular redraft leagues as well.
Before we go too far, I’ll make this disclaimer for the entire series: past results don’t necessarily predict future results. As the MFL10 community incorporates last year’s lessons, certain exploitable inefficiencies may be eroded, and new ones evolve. Don’t worry, we’ll be covering that in real time too. That said, I think there are some things we can take away from last year.
Hat tip to Fantasy Douche for getting the data compiled,1 and RotoDoc for helping me wrap my head around it. The table tells us the average finish for franchises that drafted each wide receiver. More importantly, the win percentage column tells us the likelihood that a franchise rostering that WR won its league.
Let’s take a quick look at wide receivers that won last year’s MFL10s. We’re going to focus much more on the win percentage, since that’s the goal.
|Jones, Julio ATL||4.42||0.209||9.46||1|
|Baldwin, Doug SEA||4.61||0.198||163.99||15|
|Hurns, Allen JAC||4.73||0.181||193.81||17|
|Brown, Antonio PIT||4.71||0.177||4.12||1|
|Hopkins, DeAndre HOU||4.81||0.176||31.29||3|
|Fitzgerald, Larry ARI||4.83||0.171||87.89||8|
|Marshall, Brandon NYJ||4.9||0.158||59.25||5|
|Beckham, Odell NYG||5.26||0.147||10.28||1|
|Robinson, Allen JAC||5.02||0.147||58.48||5|
|Green, A.J. CIN||5.68||0.119||18.81||2|
|Crabtree, Michael OAK||5.38||0.118||153.78||14|
|Thomas, Demaryius DEN||5.85||0.117||11.32||1|
|Amendola, Danny NEP||5.58||0.117||210.99||19|
|Johnson, Calvin DET||5.97||0.109||15.69||2|
|Decker, Eric NYJ||5.43||0.107||89.44||8|
|Sanders, Emmanuel DEN||5.99||0.106||37.52||4|
|Landry, Jarvis MIA||5.63||0.105||58||5|
|Austin, Tavon STL||6.04||0.102||219.56||19|
|Smith, Steve BAL||5.99||0.102||97.66||9|
|Cooks, Brandin NOS||5.79||0.102||31||3|
|Hankerson, Leonard BUF||6.29||0.1||207.35||18|
|Edelman, Julian NEP||6.13||0.099||48.58||5|
|Beasley, Cole DAL||6.14||0.096||197.69||18|
|Britt, Kenny STL||6.15||0.093||193.07||17|
|Jones, Marvin CIN||5.99||0.091||148.19||14|
|Randle, Rueben NYG||5.98||0.091||138.49||12|
|Allen, Keenan SDC||6.34||0.09||47.7||4|
|Wheaton, Markus PIT||6.13||0.09||159.29||14|
|Johnson, Stevie SDC||6.1||0.09||134.37||12|
|Maclin, Jeremy KCC||6.11||0.088||61.35||6|
|Matthews, Jordan PHI||6.33||0.085||35.63||3|
|Floyd, Malcom SDC||6.15||0.084||194.83||17|
- Nine of the top 14 players by win percentage were wide receivers.
- WRs that improved your chances of winning a league (more than an 8.3 percent win rate) also had the earliest ADP of any of the positions.
- Although you could get good WRs throughout the draft, round one was the way to go.
- A bunch of teams had two WRs make the list of league-winners. Atlanta, Cincinnati, Denver, Jacksonville, New England, the Giants and Jets, Steelers, Chargers, and – surprisingly – the Rams.
- In some cases, the presence of the second receiver from a team (Leonard Hankerson, Danny Amendola, for example) seems a bit fluky. Perhaps owners of those players selected them as handcuffs to Julio Jones and Julian Edelman. Not sure.
- What is more clear is that the league-winning WRs generally came from higher-volume passing offenses. This may sound like a no-brainer but it’s sometimes hard to remember on draft day. Also, “high-volume passing offense” is different than “stud WR” or even “high market share WR.” The average team passing attempts for the league winning WRs was 593, above the league average of 572. The average pass attempts for teams that didn’t have a league-winning WR was just 520.
- From the fantasy efficiency app, here are the average stats for league winning WRs. That target number seems like a good thing to keep in mind. Volume is good.
- I’m using data for MFL10s from June-September, 2015. (back)