The Wide Receivers that Won MFL10s in 2015

This is the continuation of a series looking at which players won My Fantasy League MFL10s in 2015. If you’re unfamiliar with the format, you’ll find many of the lessons applicable to regular redraft leagues as well.

Before we go too far, I’ll make this disclaimer for the entire series: past results don’t necessarily predict future results. As the MFL10 community incorporates last year’s lessons, certain exploitable inefficiencies may be eroded, and new ones evolve. Don’t worry, we’ll be covering that in real time too. That said, I think there are some things we can take away from last year.

Hat tip to Fantasy Douche for getting the data compiled,1 and RotoDoc for helping me wrap my head around it. The table tells us the average finish for franchises that drafted each wide receiver. More importantly, the win percentage column tells us the likelihood that a franchise rostering that WR won its league.

Let’s take a quick look at wide receivers that won last year’s MFL10s. We’re going to focus much more on the win percentage, since that’s the goal.

PLAYERAVG.FINWINRTADPRound
Jones, Julio ATL4.420.2099.461
Baldwin, Doug SEA4.610.198163.9915
Hurns, Allen JAC4.730.181193.8117
Brown, Antonio PIT4.710.1774.121
Hopkins, DeAndre HOU4.810.17631.293
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI4.830.17187.898
Marshall, Brandon NYJ4.90.15859.255
Beckham, Odell NYG5.260.14710.281
Robinson, Allen JAC5.020.14758.485
Green, A.J. CIN5.680.11918.812
Crabtree, Michael OAK5.380.118153.7814
Thomas, Demaryius DEN5.850.11711.321
Amendola, Danny NEP5.580.117210.9919
Johnson, Calvin DET5.970.10915.692
Decker, Eric NYJ5.430.10789.448
Sanders, Emmanuel DEN5.990.10637.524
Landry, Jarvis MIA5.630.105585
Austin, Tavon STL6.040.102219.5619
Smith, Steve BAL5.990.10297.669
Cooks, Brandin NOS5.790.102313
Hankerson, Leonard BUF6.290.1207.3518
Edelman, Julian NEP6.130.09948.585
Beasley, Cole DAL6.140.096197.6918
Britt, Kenny STL6.150.093193.0717
Jones, Marvin CIN5.990.091148.1914
Randle, Rueben NYG5.980.091138.4912
Allen, Keenan SDC6.340.0947.74
Wheaton, Markus PIT6.130.09159.2914
Johnson, Stevie SDC6.10.09134.3712
Maclin, Jeremy KCC6.110.08861.356
Matthews, Jordan PHI6.330.08535.633
Floyd, Malcom SDC6.150.084194.8317

Takeaways.

  • Nine of the top 14 players by win percentage were wide receivers.
  • WRs that improved your chances of winning a league (more than an 8.3 percent win rate) also had the earliest ADP of any of the positions. Capture
  • Although you could get good WRs throughout the draft, round one was the way to go.wr
  • A bunch of teams had two WRs make the list of league-winners. Atlanta, Cincinnati, Denver, Jacksonville, New England, the Giants and Jets, Steelers, Chargers, and – surprisingly – the Rams.
  • In some cases, the presence of the second receiver from a team (Leonard Hankerson, Danny Amendola, for example) seems a bit fluky. Perhaps owners of those players selected them as handcuffs to Julio Jones and Julian Edelman. Not sure.
  • What is more clear is that the league-winning WRs generally came from higher-volume passing offenses. This may sound like a no-brainer but it’s sometimes hard to remember on draft day. Also, “high-volume passing offense” is different than “stud WR” or even “high market share WR.” The average team passing attempts for the league winning WRs was 593, above the league average of 572. The average pass attempts for teams that didn’t have a league-winning WR was just 520.
  • From the fantasy efficiency app, here are the average stats for league winning WRs. CaptureThat target number seems like a good thing to keep in mind. Volume is good.
  1. I’m using data for MFL10s from June-September, 2015.  (back)

Charles Kleinheksel

Editor and contributor since 2013. Director of Special Projects August 2017. Occasionally found at numberFire, Rotoballer, and FantasyPros.

Week 10 Waiver Wire Advice

RotoViz provides advice on players to target and fade on your fantasy football waiver wire.

Week 9 Waiver Wire Advice

RotoViz provides advice on players to target and fade on your fantasy football waiver wire.

What we do
Connect
Support

rotovizmain@gmail.com

Sign-up today for our free Premium Email subscription!

© 2019 RotoViz. All rights Reserved.