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Corey Coleman To The Texans? The Rookie Landing Spot That Could Shake Up Dynasty Drafts

Corey Coleman is widely regarded as a top-three wide receiever prospect by both the fantasy industry and the NFL, somewhat insulating himself from a rise or fall in draft position come May. But if he lands with the right team, his ceiling could rise ever higher.

If you’ve been following along for the last week or so, the writers here at RotoViz have been examining how different landing spots for members of the 2016 draft class could affect rookie drafts this summer. Today I’d like to present the case for Coleman to the Houston Texans.

THE PROSPECT

It can be dangerous relying on player comparables for incoming rookies, but as Anthony Amico pointed out on Twitter the other day, Coleman looks a lot like Odell Beckham.

Unable to run the 40-yard dash at the combine, Coleman posted a 4.37 at his pro day last month, confirming the speed that we intuitively knew he possessed. He was also recently crowned champion of the RotoViz WR Prospect Tournament, showing just how much his profile is valued here at the site.

Matthew Freedman examined Coleman as a prospect last December while Jon Moore looked at how Coleman fared against another elite WR prospect, Josh Doctson, facing common opponents last season.

In summary, despite his lack of “prototypical” height and weight (5-11, 193 pounds), Coleman has nearly everything you’d look for in a WR prospect.

THE FIT

Currently valued at pick 15.8 according to Play the Draft, Coleman falling to Houston at pick 22 might be a bit of wishful thinking. Several teams in need of WR help could take Coleman – Rams, Falcons, Bills – blowing this whole thing up.

But for now, let’s walk down this theoretical road together.

The Texans led the league in offensive plays per game (70.4) last season and finished ninth in pass attempts per game (38.7). The entirety of Houston’s offensive coaching staff remains intact heading into 2016, so even if the defense plays better than it did early-on last season, we should still expect a similar, high-paced offensive philosophy.

DeAndre Hopkins was a target hog last year finishing with 194 targets. Nate Washington finished with 92 targets, second-most on the team. Washington has taken his talents to New England, leaving a fairly large chunk of targets up for grabs.

Lamar Miller could slide into Arian Foster’s vacant target share, but with only Jaelen Strong and Cecil Shorts to contend with, Coleman could be in line for a 100+ target rookie season as a first-round pick, an (admittedly) arbitrary cutoff that has led to some pretty productive first-year performances:

Rk YearAgeGTgtRecreYDsYds/RreTDsY/TgtPPR FPsFPs/G
1Terry Glenn1996221516790113212.5866.78239.215.9
2Kelvin Benjamin2014231614573100813.8196.95227.814.2
3Joey Galloway1995241613367103915.5177.81212.913.3
4Justin Blackmon201222161326486513.5256.55180.511.3
5Odell Beckham2014221213091130514.341210.04293.524.5
6Amari Cooper2015211613072107014.8668.2321513.4
7Sammy Watkins201421161286598215.1167.67199.212.5
8Peter Warrick200023161265159211.6144.7134.28.4
9Keyshawn Johnson199624141256384413.486.75195.414
10Randy Moss1998211612469131319.031710.59302.318.9
11Wayne Chrebet19952216123667261145.9162.610.2
12Michael Clayton2004221612280119314.9179.78241.315.1
13Mike Evans2014211512268105115.46128.61245.116.3
14Andre Johnson200322161196697614.7948.2187.611.7
15Troy Edwards199922161186171411.756.05162.410.2
16Marvin Harrison199624161186483613.0687.08195.612.2
17Roy Williams200423141185481715.1386.92183.713.1
18Dwayne Bowe200723161167099514.2158.58199.512.5
19Larry Fitzgerald200421161155878013.4586.7818411.5
20A.J. Green2011231511565105716.2679.19212.714.2
21Eddie Kennison199623151155492417.1198.03200.413.4
22Sylvester Morris200023151054867814.1336.46133.88.9
23Kendall Wright20122315104646269.7846.02150.610
24Rod Gardner200124161014674116.1147.34144.19
AVG120.265.3893.713.8367.42190.712.4

Not only does the RSI Mock Draft agree with the fit, but so does Kevin Cole’s work looking at rookie WR opportunity scores which shows Houston as a plus landing spot.

THE FALLOUT

As the dynasty 1.04 according to DLF Rookie ADP data, fantasy owners are already well aware of what Coleman can do regardless of landing spot. And no matter where he ends up, he has the production profile and physical traits to end up as the WR1 among all rookies by season’s end.

While some would prefer Coleman going to a team with no incumbent WR1 like Minnesota, having a devastating downfield demon like Hopkins in the same huddle should help facilitate his transition to the next level and allow him to display his dramatic after-the-catch ability.

I think it’s safe to say that everyone here at RotoViz would agree that drafting Coleman within the first four picks of rookie drafts is a worthwhile consideration. If he ends up in a peach spot like Houston, a solid argument could be made for the 1.02[1].

[1] Or even the 1.01, if you don’t follow the “Elliott or Bust” logic.

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