The Best Ball App is all kinds of fun. Not only does it help you dominate those My Fantasy League MFL10s, it informs your general redraft and dynasty strategy as well. Knowing which players are currently over- or undervalued has ramifications for all fantasy formats.
To get a quick sense of the market, I downloaded the app’s data for the past week, then eliminated any player not taken in at least 80 percent of drafts. Then I just compared each player’s positional ADP to our projected positional finish. Here are the wide receivers that represent the worst current values.
|Smith, Torrey SFO WR||WR||25||44||97.23||13.96||176||227||19|
|Aiken, Kamar BAL WR||WR||47||61||157.46||30.67||151||166.9||14|
|Smith, Steve BAL WR||WR||36||49||109.14||16.3||161||195.3||13|
|Jackson, DeSean WAS WR||WR||29||38||79.13||9.55||159||210||9|
|Snead, Willie NOS WR||WR||34||43||90.69||11.67||166||199.1||9|
|Marshall, Brandon NYJ WR||WR||5||14||23.21||3.98||174||288||9|
|Maclin, Jeremy KCC WR||WR||16||23||37.11||3.57||171||255.4||7|
I saved this article for last; everybody loves a good wide receiver value. Up first, the much-maligned Torrey Smith. Anthony Amico has been on board since the end of last season. More recently, I took a look at San Francisco’s WR corps and concluded that Smith is a great bargain.
Kamar Aiken performed well when pressed into duty last year, but the Ravens WR situation is definitely crowded. You can see by the standard deviation of his ADP that opinions on him are quite a bit more varied than the rest of the WRs in this article. To get to a borderline-WR4 projection, I think you need to assume that one of Steve Smith, Breshad Perriman, and Mike Wallace will be a bust this year. If those three are playing at par, it’s hard to imagine Aiken having much of a role. It could happen but I’m not counting on it. High stakes dynasty players aren’t counting on it either; in rookie drafts where veterans can also be selected, Aiken isn’t being taken until the fifth round.
Speaking of Steve Smith, he shows up as a bargain as well. I’m more inclined to roll the dice with Smith. I know he’s old and coming off major injury, but we know he can still produce if healthy. Here’s what he did last year.
He was on pace to finish as WR7, right between Allen Robinson and Larry Fitzgerald. Especially in a best-ball format, I’d rather take a chance on the player who has the much higher ceiling.
When Fantasy Douche looked at the relative performance of WRs vs. their teammates, DeSean Jackson came out atop the league. Jackson also missed time last year due to injury, but when healthy, paced for 190 PPR points. That would have been WR30 last year, right in line with our current projection for him. I can’t think of a reason Kirk Cousins wouldn’t target him heavily this year.
Josh Doctson will obviously play a role in the offense, but it seems more likely it will come at the expense of someone like Pierre Garcon or Jamison Crowder. I like Jackson a lot at his current price point.
Willie Snead is the real deal folks. Just ask Justin Winn, who likes him even more than the staff composite. I took a stab at addressing the Saints WR hierarchy and came away more worried about Michael Thomas prospects than Snead’s.
Hard to see a reason to dislike Brandon Marshall in redraft. He’s old? So what, it’s only one year. And he didn’t play like an old man last year. Worried about the quarterback situation? Josh McCown and Matt Moore averaged almost 9 adjusted yards per attempt when targeting Marshall. Jason Laso examines Marshall – and the age curve – in great detail.
Jeremy Maclin is yet another ‘unsexy’ name. But why shouldn’t we like him? He hasn’t averaged under 13 PPR points per game (208 per season) since he was a rookie. So even if he’s just career average he meets his current ADP value. But over the past two seasons he’s averaged almost 17 points per game. Justin Winn explains why you shouldn’t sleep on him. He was on a WR1 pace last year but missed a game. Expect the same this year: a borderline WR1 for a WR2 price.
The takeaway here is really to go do some more research, especially when we’re getting different signals about some of these players. That goes for us as well – we’ll keep tinkering with our projections as the offseason progresses. We use a version of the Projection Machine, and so can you. It takes a few minutes, but it makes you account for all the factors that go into a projection. You can get an agnostic projection from the Sim App, and tweak our projections to your league’s settings using the Cheat Sheet App.