Where’s the Jordy Nelson Injury Discount?

Source: Jordy Nelson expects to play in charity Softball game on Sunday – Acme Packing Company:

[W]ith Nelson still working back slowly from the torn ACL he suffered last preseason and being on a schedule to wait to return fully until training camp, it would be reasonable for a fan to think that he might not be picking up a bat on Sunday, June 12th for the game.

Thankfully, Nelson put any doubts about his availability for the game to rest on Monday after practice:

Jordy Nelson on whether he’ll play in his charity softball game Sunday: “I’ve not been told not to do it, so we’ll be out there.” #Packers — Wes Hodkiewicz (@WesHod) June 6, 2016

Jordy Nelson said last week that if the season started now, he’d be ready to play. If he’s ready to go in a charity softball game, I’m inclined to believe him. Normally, I’d be anxious to jump on the discount for an apparently healthy player coming off a season missed due to injury. But about that injury discount … here are the Packers’ top players by MFL10 average draft position.

Jordy Nelson injury

I pulled the 2015 ADP directly from My Fantasy League, which doesn’t let us create time “windows,” so we’re catching a few late-round auto-drafts. And Rodgers’ fall is largely driven by the fact that “Late Round QB Is the New Black.” But still. If nothing else, the additional year on Nelson’s bio page should drive his price down a bit more than the other Packers’ options.

Justin Winn makes a strong case for (mostly) ignoring Nelson’s age and acquiring him in redraft and on contending dynasty teams. But in MFL10s, Nelson is being drafted half a round before Brandon Marshall, who profiles similarly to Nelson. Except while Nelson missed 2015 to injury, Marshall put up more fantasy points in 2015 than Nelson has in any season of his career. And while an ACL tear isn’t anything close to a career death sentence, it’s not nothing. I’ll gladly take Marshall over Nelson anytime I get the opportunity.

For a dynasty-centered take on Nelson, be sure to read 14Team Mocker’s plea for you to sell Nelson immediately. Based on dynasty ADP, you may be able to sell Nelson straight up for 25-year-old teammate Randall Cobb, whose dynasty value (rightly) took a major hit in 2015. I’m not as low on Nelson as Mocker, but I’d almost certainly make that deal.

Brian Malone

Brian is very much like other people.

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