Continuing our tour around the league, here’s a look at my projections for the 2016 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Using the Projection Machine, here are the team-level inputs I used.
Vegas lines project the Buccaneers to have an average per-game scoring deficit of over four points. I set their pass expectancy vs. expectation to just league average, but as you can see in the middle graph, that’s well above their rate from last season. I set their pace tendency to 0.1, a slightly positive number in keeping with Dirk Koetter’s past four seasons as a coordinator. Those inputs produce the following team level settings.
The number of plays is nearly identical to last year (1016), but skewed more heavily to the pass. Last year Tampa Bay attempted 535 passes and 454 rushes.
As noted, Jameis Winston is in for an uptick in pass attempts. I dropped his share of rushing attempts from last season, but kept it above average for a quarterback.
|QB||Winston, Jameis TBB QB||565.01||342.07||0.61||4240.43||25.01||15.26||38.18||140.02||1.37||276.64||276.64|
That works out to about 303 points in MFL10 scoring. That would have been QB13 last year, one spot above where Winston actually finished. He’s fairly priced in current MFL10s.
I just averaged Mike Evans’ market share and efficiency numbers for his first two seasons. Last year’s drops shouldn’t have any impact on his usage this year. He may not be as good as he was as a rookie, but I think he’s better than he was last year. So, split the difference. I did the same with Vincent Jackson. I’m assuming he’ll be healthy, but he’ll also be another year older, so I just averaged his 2014 (healthy) and 2015 (older) numbers. Kenny Bell gets the average for a Koetter WR3.
|WR1||Evans, Mike TBB WR||151.43||82.38||1287.14||15.62||9.09||0.00||0.00||5.32||0.00||265.61||224.42|
|WR2||Jackson, Vincent TBB WR||95.34||50.44||719.37||14.26||3.81||0.00||0.00||4.85||0.00||145.26||120.04|
|WR3||Bell, Kenny TBB WR||61.69||40.10||479.36||11.95||1.85||0.00||0.00||4.80||0.00||99.14||79.09|
Evans’ projection would have made him WR12 last year. He’s fair value at his current best ball ADP. Jackson is also fairly priced, but his projection falls well outside the top 36 (49th last year, 45th in our composite projections).
I set Doug Martin’s share of rushing attempts at 60 percent. That’s a bit lower than last season, but higher than both his personal career average (53 percent) and Koetter’s four-year average for RB1 (56 percent). I averaged out his career and Koetter’s recent history for the rest of Martin’s inputs. I used a similar approach for Charles Sims, except I set his yards per target to 6.75. That’s a 75th percentile number, so still aggressive, but a drop from the otherwordly eight yards per target he posted last year.
|RB1||Martin, Doug TBB RB||254.56||1103.50||6.36||39.26||27.48||225.15||8.19||0.77||203.18||189.44|
|RB2||Sims, Charles TBB RB||90.79||372.25||1.82||67.30||48.79||454.29||9.31||1.25||149.85||125.46|
My projection for Martin almost exactly matches our staff composite, and makes him our 15th-ranked RB this season. That’s a slight discount to his ADP (RB11), but nothing too egregious. I’m quite a bit lower on Sims than the staff composite (167 points), but I can definitely see him hitting that higher number if Martin struggles or is injured.
But as it is I’m projecting Sims for almost the same rushing and passing workload he received last year, and a two percent rushing TD rate, well above his rate for last year (zero) and his career (one percent). The difference between my projection and the composite comes down to his receiving yards per target. If he maintains something like the eight yards per target he managed last year, then he’ll hit that higher composite projection on the workload I project. But if, like me, you think that number might be unsustainable, then he may be overpriced right now. In the end, his ADP probably reflects the combination of standalone value and upside in the event of Martin missing time, which seems reasonable.
I gave Austin Seferian-Jenkins a 14 percent share of targets, just above league median for a TE1. I left his catch rate and yards per target at league average, and gave him credit for a seven percent TD rate. That’s below his rate from last year but equal to the 75th percentile for TEs. I gave Cameron Brate a higher than league average usage rate, to reflect both the fact that ASJ has missed a lot of time thus far in his career, and Brate’s good showing when given opportunity.
|TE1||Seferian-Jenkins, Austin TBB TE||79.10||47.46||579.02||12.20||5.62||139.06||115.33|
|TE2||Brate, Cameron TBB TE||45.20||28.70||277.62||9.67||1.94||68.13||53.78|