###### 2016’s Top WR Regression Candidates in Efficiency

When Josh Hermsmeyer recently introduced his air yards and air yards per target metrics, one interesting note was that a multiple linear regression of targets and total air yards explained 80 percent of a wide receiver’s receiving yards.

That spurred an idea to look at the other 20 percent, where I use a method that comes from an article Jacob Myers wrote earlier this offseason looking at fantasy points over expectation and TD rate. It’s conceptually similar to what Rich Hribar did for quarterbacks in finding QB regression candidates, but taken one step further.1

## Methodology

I used the RotoViz screener to filter all WR seasons since 2010 where a WR had at least 50 targets. Then I fit receiving TD rate (reTDRT) against receiving fantasy points over expectation per attempt (reFPOEPA)2 This gives us a fantasy efficiency metric that is agnostic from reTDRT. This is similar to what Hribar did in his piece, where he plotted QB Y/A on the x-axis and paTDRT on the y-axis.

In our RotoViz slack chat, Brian Malone pointed out this is essentially yards per target, and it does correlate strongly with YPT, with a correlation coefficient of 0.785. The biggest difference is this is YPT over (or below) expectation relative to game situation. (A receiver cannot have more than 11 YPT if the ball is at the opponent’s 11 yard line, for example. It is also the case that targets on 4th and short tend to be shorter targets, so the expected yards per target is lower.) I’ll call this metric YPT over expectation, or YPTOE.

The first question I had was “is YPTOE predictive of YPTOE in the following year?” In short, no. The correlation coefficient for YPTOE with YPTOE in year N+1 is 0.186, which gives an R-squared value of 0.035. In other words, YPTOE tends to regress to the mean — quite strongly even.

Knowing this, we are armored with WRs likely to regress (either upward or downward) in YPTOE. In addition, reTDRT is an unstable metric year over year as well. It can neither be predicted by prior year YPTOE nor by prior year reTDRT. Even a multiple regression using both factors still gives an R-squared of only 0.035. In other words, both reTDRT and YPTOE both display regression to the mean the following year.

## Finding Regression Candidates

Since both reTDRT (a TD efficiency metric) and YPTOE (a yardage efficiency metric) are expected to mean revert, we can use these in tandem to find the most likely overall regression candidates from an efficiency standpoint. To do so, we first need to look at the distribution of these metrics.

The reTDRT metric fits a Johnson Sb distribution, while the YPTOE is normally distributed. Fortunately, both can be transformed to the normal distribution with mean zero and standard deviation one. Theses are simply the z-scores for each distribution. By adding these z-scores together, we can find players that are furthest from zero who are prime regression candidates. Here are all the summed z-scores (denoted SumZ) for all WRs with at least 50 targets in a season since 2000.

PLAYERSEASreTDRTYPTOESumZ
Jordy Nelson20110.1560.334.75
Kenny Stills20130.10.504.47
Devery Henderson20060.0930.494.22
Robert Meachem20090.1410.274.08
Mike Wallace20100.1010.413.99
James Jones20110.1270.283.88
Doug Baldwin20150.1360.203.58
Marques Colston20110.0750.443.41
Greg Jennings20070.1430.143.39
Malcom Floyd20110.0710.453.31
Randy Moss20000.1170.223.26
Tyler Lockett20150.0870.353.24
Devery Henderson20080.0530.543.21
Robert Meachem20110.10.283.20
Brandon Stokley20040.0980.293.19
Santonio Holmes20070.0940.303.16
Kenny Stills20140.0360.643.12
DeSean Jackson20140.0630.453.08
Laurent Robinson20110.1380.103.06
Danario Alexander20120.1130.193.01
Victor Cruz20110.0680.413.01
Sammy Watkins20150.0940.252.87
Vincent Jackson20090.0840.302.84
Mario Manningham20100.0980.232.84
Plaxico Burress20040.0830.292.80
Austin Collie20100.1130.152.78
Robert Meachem20100.0760.322.76
Joe Horn20060.0660.382.75
Brandon Stokley20120.0860.272.74
Anthony Gonzalez20070.0590.422.73
Lee Evans20040.120.112.73
Jerry Porter20020.1290.082.73
Jermaine Kearse20150.0740.322.68
Doug Baldwin20130.0680.352.66
Jordy Nelson20120.0960.212.65
Ronald Curry20040.0860.252.63
Santana Moss20050.0670.352.62
DeSean Jackson20130.0710.332.61
Dez Bryant20120.0870.242.61
Steve Smith20050.080.272.57
Torry Holt20040.0740.302.56
Golden Tate20120.1040.152.53
Ricky Proehl20010.0910.212.53
Randall Cobb20140.0940.192.52
Reggie Williams20070.167-0.092.52
Mike Wallace20090.0830.242.51
Kenny Britt20100.1230.062.48
Rishard Matthews20150.0660.332.46
Derrick Mason20010.080.252.45
Andre Johnson20070.0930.182.43
Joey Galloway20070.0610.352.42
Derrick Mason20000.0560.372.37
Randall Cobb20120.0770.242.34
Santana Moss20120.1290.012.32
Hakeem Nicks20090.0810.222.32
Derrick Mason20030.060.342.32
Dez Bryant20140.1180.052.31
Demaryius Thomas20130.0990.132.30
Eddie Royal20130.1190.042.29
Isaac Bruce20010.0580.342.29
Mike Wallace20110.070.272.28
Miles Austin20090.0890.172.28
Brandon LaFell20110.0540.372.28
Odell Beckham Jr.20140.0920.162.28
Calvin Johnson20110.1010.112.25
Marvin Harrison20010.0910.162.24
Sidney Rice20090.0660.292.23
Greg Jennings20100.0970.132.23
Torry Holt20000.0430.432.21
Julio Jones20110.0840.192.21
Keenan Allen20130.0770.212.16
Demaryius Thomas20120.0710.252.15
Emmanuel Sanders20140.0640.282.14
Santana Moss20040.0640.282.14
Reggie Wayne20020.0560.332.14
Terrance Williams20140.123-0.002.13
Terrell Owens20070.1060.062.08
Riley Cooper20130.0960.112.08
Marques Colston20090.0850.162.07
Reggie Wayne20040.1040.072.07
Steve Smith20080.0470.382.06
Bill Schroeder20010.0970.102.05
Greg Jennings20110.0890.132.05
Joe Jurevicius20020.0770.192.05
Isaac Bruce20000.0670.252.04
Reggie Wayne20070.0640.262.03
Antonio Brown20140.0720.222.02
Ty Hilton20140.0530.332.00
Randy Moss20030.1050.051.99
Steve Smith20110.0540.321.99
Torrey Smith20150.0650.251.96
Nate Burleson20040.0880.121.95
Javon Walker20040.0830.141.94
Bobby Engram20030.0810.151.92
Eric Parker20040.0560.291.91
Vincent Jackson20080.0690.211.89
Torry Holt20010.0530.311.88
Terrell Owens20000.0890.101.88
Terrell Owens20040.110.011.87
Quincy Morgan20020.0720.191.84
D.J. Hackett20060.0610.251.84
Santana Moss20030.0850.121.84
Jordy Nelson20140.0860.111.82
Donald Driver20020.080.141.82
Javon Walker20030.122-0.051.81
Allen Hurns20150.0950.061.81
Steve Johnson20140.060.251.80
Eddie Kennison20040.0750.161.79
Ashley Lelie20040.0690.191.78
Michael Clayton20040.0570.261.78
DeSean Jackson20100.0620.231.77
Jordy Nelson20130.0630.221.75
Lance Moore20110.108-0.011.75
Amani Toomer20020.060.241.74
Johnnie Morton20040.0380.381.73
Justin McCareins20030.0850.101.72
Antonio Brown20150.0520.281.72
A.J. Green20150.0760.141.72
Jerheme Urban20080.0780.131.68
David Givens20030.111-0.031.68
Hines Ward20040.0370.381.67
Jason Avant20090.0520.271.66
Ike Hilliard20080.0690.171.66
Anquan Boldin20070.0910.061.66
Lance Moore20120.0580.231.65
Bernard Berrian20080.0740.141.64
Malcom Floyd20120.0590.231.64
Chris Henry20050.12-0.081.63
Jordan Matthews20140.0780.121.62
Jerry Rice20010.0720.151.61
Donte' Stallworth20020.116-0.061.61
Odell Beckham Jr.20150.0820.091.61
DeSean Jackson20090.0760.121.60
Eric Decker20120.107-0.031.60
Antwaan Randle El20040.0480.291.59
Rueben Randle20150.0890.051.59
Andre' Davis20030.0810.091.57
Deion Branch20040.0780.111.57
Robert Ferguson20030.0680.161.56
MarTay Jenkins20010.0560.231.56
Eddie Kennison20050.0460.301.55
John Brown20150.0690.151.55
Randy Moss20090.0940.021.54
Brandon Stokley20070.070.141.53
Anquan Boldin20130.0540.241.53
Pierre Garcon20120.0590.211.52
Terrell Owens20010.103-0.021.52
Michael Crabtree20120.0710.141.51
Az-Zahir Hakim20000.050.261.51
Ty Hilton20120.0780.101.51
Terrance Williams20130.0680.151.51
Keenan Allen20150.0450.291.50
Marvin Jones20130.125-0.121.50
Jeremy Maclin20150.0650.171.49
Leonard Hankerson20120.0530.241.48
Torry Holt20030.0660.161.48
Keenan McCardell20050.0830.061.47
Johnny Knox20110.0290.411.47
Ernest Wilford20050.0950.001.46
Julio Jones20120.0780.091.45
Terry Glenn20050.060.191.45
Joe Horn20040.0720.121.44
Eric Parker20050.0380.331.44
Sidney Rice20120.0850.051.44
Randy Moss20070.145-0.211.42
Joe Jurevicius20050.119-0.111.42
Percy Harvin20090.0660.151.42
Bobby Shaw20000.0580.191.42
Brandin Cooks20150.070.121.42
Jeremy McDaniel20000.0290.401.41
Dwayne Bowe20100.113-0.091.40
Marvin Harrison20060.0810.061.40
Chris Chambers20010.0780.081.39
Jerricho Cotchery20150.0560.201.39
Josh Gordon20130.0570.191.37
J.J. Stokes20000.0570.191.37
DeAndre Hopkins20140.0470.261.37
Larry Fitzgerald20150.0620.161.36
Reggie Wayne20060.0660.141.36
Marvin Harrison20030.070.111.36
Kevin Johnson20010.070.111.36
Jarius Wright20140.0320.361.35
Eric Decker20130.0810.051.34
Hines Ward20020.0750.081.33
Anthony Gonzalez20080.0510.221.33
Andre Johnson20110.0390.301.32
Az-Zahir Hakim20040.0530.211.31
Andre Johnson20120.0250.411.30
Eddie Royal20140.0770.061.30
Terry Glenn20060.0540.201.29
Michael Floyd20150.0670.121.29
Michael Jenkins20110.0550.191.28
Antonio Bryant20080.050.221.28
Michael Jenkins20080.0370.311.27
Bobby Engram20040.0380.301.26
Deion Branch20100.0650.131.26
Seth Roberts20150.091-0.011.26
James Jones20120.143-0.231.25
Andre Johnson20100.0580.161.25
Lee Evans20060.0580.161.25
Rod Smith20050.0480.231.24
Wes Welker20070.0550.181.23
Patrick Crayton20090.0750.061.22
Amani Toomer20000.0560.171.21
Malcom Floyd20140.0650.121.20
Wes Welker20110.0520.191.20
Jeremy Maclin20110.0520.191.20
Derrick Alexander20000.0690.091.20
Doug Baldwin20110.0470.231.20
Joey Galloway20040.094-0.041.19
Samie Parker20050.0530.191.19
Wayne Chrebet20020.112-0.121.19
Marques Colston20060.070.081.18
Marvin Harrison20020.0540.181.18
Darrell Jackson20050.0550.171.17
Ed McCaffrey20000.060.141.16
Dezmon Briscoe20110.118-0.151.16
Golden Tate20130.0510.191.16
Julio Jones20140.0370.291.15
Hines Ward20050.096-0.051.15
Marvin Harrison20050.091-0.031.14
Joe Horn20000.0530.181.13
Donald Driver20040.0660.101.13
Derrick Mason20080.0410.261.13
Jeremy Maclin20140.070.071.13
Donald Driver20090.0540.171.12
Jabar Gaffney20070.1-0.081.12
Brandin Cooks20140.0430.241.11
Torrey Smith20140.12-0.171.11
Anquan Boldin20080.087-0.021.11
Dez Bryant20110.087-0.021.11
Greg Jennings20080.0640.101.10
Donte' Stallworth20060.0640.101.10
Bobby Engram20070.0450.221.10
Laveranues Coles20020.0370.281.10
Ashley Lelie20020.0380.271.09
Brandon Gibson20120.0610.121.09
Drew Bennett20040.0760.031.08
Patrick Crayton20070.086-0.021.07
Julian Edelman20150.080.011.07
Bryant Johnson20060.0540.161.06
Torrey Smith20110.0740.041.06
Percy Harvin20110.050.181.05
Mike Evans20140.098-0.081.05
Brandon Marshall20150.0810.001.05
Hines Ward20090.0440.221.05
Calvin Johnson20080.0790.011.03
Julio Jones20150.0390.251.03
Andre Johnson20080.0470.201.02
Donald Driver20110.107-0.131.02
Curtis Conway20020.0530.161.02
Tim Wright20130.0660.081.02
Stefon Diggs20150.0480.191.01
Golden Tate20140.0280.341.01
Darrell Jackson20060.089-0.051.01
Marques Colston20120.0770.011.01
Julio Jones20130.0340.291.00
Jeremy Maclin20100.087-0.040.99
Larry Fitzgerald20080.0780.010.99
Brandon Lloyd20100.0720.040.98
Bobby Shaw20030.0470.190.96
Hakeem Nicks20100.086-0.040.95
Andre Rison20000.086-0.040.95
Markus Wheaton20150.0630.080.95
Peter Warrick20020.0740.020.94
Reggie Wayne20090.0670.060.94
Donald Driver20080.0430.210.94
Jimmy Smith20000.0550.130.94
Anthony Armstrong20100.0350.270.93
Michael Floyd20130.0440.200.93
Vincent Jackson20110.078-0.000.93
Marques Colston20130.0450.190.92
Todd Pinkston20040.0160.430.92
Marques Colston20140.0510.150.92
Lance Moore20130.0370.250.92
Alshon Jeffery20130.0470.180.91
Rod Streater20130.040.230.91
Antonio Brown20130.0480.170.90
Devery Henderson20090.0240.350.90
Drew Bennett20030.0740.010.89
Cecil Shorts20120.0670.050.89
Marty Booker20060.0670.050.89
Lance Moore20100.084-0.040.88
Tim Brown20010.0640.060.87
Braylon Edwards20050.0510.140.87
Larry Fitzgerald20050.0610.080.86
Calvin Johnson20100.088-0.070.86
Roddy White20080.0470.170.85
Antwaan Randle El20070.0130.440.84
Andre Johnson20090.0530.130.84
Greg Jennings20140.0660.050.84
Nate Washington20110.0580.090.84
Marvin Harrison20000.083-0.050.84
Jordy Nelson20100.0310.280.83
Troy Brown20000.0340.260.82
Greg Jennings20090.0340.260.82
Domenik Hixon20120.0340.260.82
Troy Brown20010.0350.250.82
Reggie Brown20060.087-0.070.82
Justin McCareins20040.0440.180.82
Allen Robinson20150.093-0.100.81
Terrence Wilkins20000.0450.170.81
Rod Smith20000.0460.170.80
Reggie Wayne20080.0460.170.80
A.J. Green20140.0520.120.80
Darrell Jackson20030.0690.020.80
Braylon Edwards20100.0690.020.80
Randy Moss20040.151-0.340.79
Preston Parker20110.0470.160.79
Kevin Ogletree20120.073-0.000.79
Donte' Stallworth20030.073-0.000.79
Tim Brown20000.083-0.060.78
Kevin Curtis20060.070.010.78
Calvin Johnson20130.077-0.030.78
Santana Moss20020.077-0.030.78
Javon Walker20060.0630.050.77
Roddy White20120.0490.140.77
Corey Brown20150.074-0.010.77
Kevin Walter20080.084-0.060.76
Roddy White20070.0440.170.76
Josh Cribbs20110.060.070.76
Byron Chamberlain20010.0380.210.74
Steve Johnson20150.0460.160.74
Kendall Wright20140.0650.040.74
Terrell Owens20020.082-0.060.74
Donte' Stallworth20070.040.200.73
Kenny Britt20090.040.200.73
Steve Smith20150.0410.190.73
Derrick Mason20100.070.000.72
Kevin Walter20090.0290.280.72
Marques Colston20070.077-0.040.72
Plaxico Burress20020.0490.130.71
Troy Brown20030.0670.020.71
Justin Gage20080.081-0.060.70
Eric Decker20140.0440.160.70
Keenan McCardell20000.0360.220.70
Kenny Britt20140.0360.220.70
Hines Ward20080.0560.080.69
Jerricho Cotchery20130.132-0.290.68
Vincent Jackson20060.107-0.190.67
Kevin Curtis20050.0620.040.67
Joey Galloway20050.0660.020.67
Jordan Shipley20100.0410.180.67
Hines Ward20000.0480.130.67
James Thrash20000.0270.280.67
Lee Evans20080.030.260.66
Austin Collie20090.078-0.050.64
Larry Fitzgerald20070.060.050.64
Marques Colston20150.060.050.64
Laveranues Coles20010.0680.000.64
Marcus Robinson20040.101-0.170.64
Johnny Knox20100.0510.100.64
Peerless Price20020.0610.040.63
Larry Fitzgerald20110.0520.090.62
Steve Smith20060.0570.060.62
Nate Washington20070.091-0.120.62
Jordan Matthews20150.0620.030.61
Calvin Johnson20140.0620.030.61
Kevin Walter20100.0620.030.61
Brandon LaFell20120.0530.090.61
Isaac Bruce20040.0410.170.61
Keyshawn Johnson20030.0410.170.61
Keenan McCardell20030.0580.050.61
Dez Bryant20100.083-0.090.61
Dennis Northcutt20080.0290.260.61
Ted Ginn20130.074-0.040.60
Arrelious Benn20110.0590.050.60
David Patten20070.0340.220.59
Dennis Northcutt20070.0550.070.59
D'Wayne Bates20020.050.100.59
Emmanuel Sanders20150.0440.140.59
Steve Breaston20090.0370.190.58
Miles Austin20110.096-0.150.57
David Boston20010.0460.130.57
Percy Harvin20100.0460.130.57
A.J. Green20110.0610.030.57
Plaxico Burress20060.091-0.130.56
Brandon Marshall20130.073-0.040.56
Reggie Wayne20050.0410.160.55
Anquan Boldin20030.0480.110.55
Andre' Davis20070.0480.110.55
Jabar Gaffney20040.0290.250.55
Rueben Randle20130.077-0.070.55
Marvin Harrison20040.108-0.220.53
Torry Holt20050.0550.060.53
Nate Burleson20130.0180.340.53
Chris Henry20060.12-0.270.53
Steve Smith20030.050.090.53
Jeremy Maclin20090.0450.120.52
Mario Manningham20090.0510.080.52
Kevin Walter20110.0510.080.52
Marcus Robinson20050.088-0.130.51
Hakeem Nicks20110.0530.070.50
Chris Hogan20140.066-0.010.50
Anquan Boldin20050.0410.150.49
Curtis Conway20010.0480.100.49
Wes Welker20090.0250.270.49
Lance Moore20080.083-0.110.49
Steve Johnson20100.07-0.040.49
Vincent Jackson20120.0540.060.49
James Jones20130.0320.210.48
Miles Austin20100.0590.030.48
Dwayne Bowe20070.0430.130.48
Devin Hester20140.0340.200.48
Josh Reed20020.0340.200.48
Freddie Mitchell20030.0340.200.48
Malcom Floyd20100.078-0.080.47
Rod Smith20010.064-0.010.47
Jarvis Landry20140.0450.110.46
Eddie Kennison20030.0510.070.46
Roddy White20100.0560.040.46
DeSean Jackson20110.0380.160.46
Amari Cooper20150.0460.110.45
Larry Fitzgerald20090.085-0.120.45
Kevin Curtis20040.040.150.44
David Boston20000.0530.060.44
Nate Washington20060.0580.020.44
Roy Williams20070.0480.090.44
Calvin Johnson20120.0250.260.43
Victor Cruz20120.07-0.050.43
Raghib Ismail20010.0220.290.43
Joe Horn20030.077-0.090.43
Bobby Engram20050.0310.210.43
Eddie Kennison20010.020.300.42
James Thrash20010.074-0.070.42
David Patten20040.074-0.070.42
Brandon LaFell20140.0590.020.42
Brian Finneran20020.0590.020.42
Mario Manningham20120.0180.320.42
Plaxico Burress20010.050.070.41
Santonio Holmes20090.0360.170.41
Mike Thomas20090.0160.340.40
Randy Moss20010.065-0.020.40
Eddie Royal20080.0390.140.39
Az-Zahir Hakim20010.0570.020.39
Joe Horn20020.0470.090.39
Troy Walters20030.0580.010.38
Steve Breaston20080.0270.230.38
Justin Gage20070.0240.260.38
Santonio Holmes20060.0230.270.37
Eddie Kennison20020.0220.280.37
Braylon Edwards20070.105-0.230.37
Jerricho Cotchery20090.0310.200.37
Larry Fitzgerald20060.0540.040.37
A.J. Green20120.067-0.040.37
Amani Toomer20060.0590.010.37
Ronald Curry20060.0110.380.36
James Jones20150.081-0.120.36
Percy Harvin20120.0350.170.36
Leslie Shepherd20000.068-0.050.35
Mark Clayton20060.0450.090.35
Darrell Jackson20010.061-0.010.34
DeAndre Hopkins20150.0570.010.33
Cris Carter20000.0570.010.33
Torry Holt20070.0470.080.33
Mike Furrey20060.0410.120.32
Jerricho Cotchery20060.0480.070.32
Hines Ward20060.0480.070.32
Ted Ginn20080.0220.270.31
Kenny Britt20150.0420.110.31
Doug Baldwin20140.0310.190.31
Steve Smith20020.0310.190.31
Hines Ward20100.0540.030.31
Keary Colbert20040.0540.030.31
Ike Hilliard20070.0110.370.31
Reggie Wayne20130.0340.170.30
Koren Robinson20020.0350.160.30
Roy Williams20100.078-0.110.30
Demaryius Thomas20140.06-0.010.29
Leonard Hankerson20130.06-0.010.29
Doug Baldwin20120.06-0.010.29
Kevin Lockett20000.0360.150.29
Steve Smith20090.0450.080.29
Jerricho Cotchery20070.0160.320.29
Rod Smith20040.0510.040.29
Roddy White20140.0560.010.29
Anquan Boldin20140.0380.130.28
Chris Givens20120.0380.130.28
Josh Reed20050.0380.130.28
Roy Williams20060.0460.080.28
Reggie Wayne20030.065-0.040.28
Isaac Bruce20080.065-0.040.28
Michael Floyd20140.061-0.020.28
Anquan Boldin20090.0390.120.28
Brandon Marshall20120.0570.000.28
Deion Branch20050.040.120.27
Irving Fryar20000.066-0.050.27
Domenik Hixon20080.0280.210.26
Terrell Owens20060.086-0.160.26
Ricky Proehl20050.08-0.130.26
Isaac Bruce20020.0540.020.25
Cole Beasley20150.067-0.060.25
Santana Moss20060.059-0.010.25
Devin Hester20090.0330.160.25
Andre Johnson20040.0430.090.25
Alshon Jeffery20150.0430.090.25
David Patten20010.0430.090.25
Albert Wilson20150.0350.150.24
Anquan Boldin20100.064-0.050.24
Calvin Johnson20150.06-0.020.24
David Gettis20100.0450.070.23
Mohamed Sanu20140.0510.030.23
Brandon Marshall20090.065-0.050.22
Martavis Bryant20150.065-0.050.22
Terrell Owens20050.065-0.050.22
Eric Decker20150.091-0.190.22
Deion Branch20070.0470.060.21
Mike Thomas20100.040.110.21
Josh Gordon20120.0530.020.21
Nate Washington20130.0290.190.20
Brandon Marshall20110.0420.090.20
Brian Hartline20090.0540.010.20
Nate Burleson20070.095-0.220.19
Troy Brown20050.0340.150.19
Ted Ginn20150.103-0.250.19
Arnaz Battle20060.0350.140.18
Jimmy Smith20040.0440.070.18
Hines Ward20030.064-0.060.18
DeVante Parker20150.06-0.030.18
Sidney Rice20070.075-0.120.18
Jimmy Smith20010.0450.060.17
Charles Johnson20140.0510.020.17
Jimmy Smith20050.0470.050.16
Derrick Mason20020.040.100.15
A.J. Green20130.062-0.050.15
Joe Horn20010.058-0.030.15
Troy Edwards20030.0480.040.15
Nate Burleson20100.07-0.100.14
Isaac Bruce20030.0420.080.14
Wes Welker20140.0310.160.14
Derrius Thompson20020.0430.070.13
Danny Amendola20150.0340.140.13
Darrius Heyward-Bey20110.0350.130.13
Wes Welker20130.09-0.200.12
Ike Hilliard20010.068-0.090.12
Willie Jackson20010.0370.110.12
David Boston20030.061-0.050.11
Dez Bryant20130.082-0.170.11
Terry Glenn20030.0520.000.10
Patrick Crayton20080.057-0.030.10
Lee Evans20050.076-0.140.10
Jerry Rice20020.0470.040.10
Shaun McDonald20070.0470.040.10
Antonio Bryant20040.040.090.10
Santana Moss20100.0410.080.09
Jamison Crowder20150.0260.190.09
Dwayne Harris20150.07-0.110.09
Santonio Holmes20100.063-0.070.08
Brandon LaFell20130.059-0.040.08
Donald Driver20050.0340.130.07
Kevin Curtis20070.0440.050.07
Joe Jurevicius20070.0370.100.06
Kevin Walter20070.0380.090.05
Chris Chambers20030.085-0.190.05
Julian Edelman20130.040.080.04
Marques Colston20100.053-0.010.04
Denarius Moore20110.066-0.090.03
Marcus Robinson20030.097-0.250.03
Keyshawn Johnson20040.0480.020.03
Nate Washington20140.0280.170.03
Jabar Gaffney20090.0230.210.03
Keenan McCardell20010.0420.060.02
Antwaan Randle El20020.0310.140.02
Jeremy Kerley20120.0210.220.02
Peerless Price20010.063-0.080.02
Wes Welker20080.020.230.02
Larry Fitzgerald20130.074-0.140.02
Victor Cruz20130.0330.120.02
Jabar Gaffney20110.0430.050.02
Johnnie Morton20030.0430.050.02
Ed McCaffrey20020.0190.240.02
Chris Hogan20150.0340.120.01
Az-Zahir Hakim20050.0340.120.01
Terrell Owens20080.071-0.120.01
Titus Young20110.071-0.120.01
Antonio Freeman20020.050.000.01
Randy Moss20080.087-0.210.01
Mike Wallace20140.087-0.210.01
Derrick Mason20040.0440.040.01
Randy Moss20120.06-0.060.01
Steve Smith20140.0450.030.00
Reggie Brown20050.051-0.01-0.00
Greg Jennings20130.0380.08-0.01
Roscoe Parrish20100.0380.08-0.01
Alshon Jeffery20140.069-0.12-0.01
Donte Moncrief20150.057-0.05-0.01
Antonio Brown20120.0470.02-0.02
Malcom Floyd20090.0130.29-0.02
Allen Hurns20140.062-0.08-0.02
Dontrelle Inman20150.0480.01-0.03
Terrance Williams20150.0320.12-0.04
Michael Crabtree20100.059-0.06-0.04
Drew Carter20060.059-0.06-0.04
Wes Welker20120.0340.11-0.04
Anquan Boldin20120.0360.09-0.05
Marty Booker20010.051-0.02-0.06
Nate Washington20080.0380.07-0.06
Joe Jurevicius20060.0460.02-0.07
Wes Welker20100.057-0.06-0.07
Ike Hilliard20000.076-0.17-0.07
Isaac Bruce20060.0240.18-0.09
Kevin Walter20120.0290.14-0.09
Bobby Engram200200.42-0.09
Pierre Garcon20150.054-0.04-0.09
Mike Walker20090.063-0.10-0.09
Reggie Wayne20100.0340.10-0.10
Andre Johnson20030.0340.10-0.10
Titus Young20120.071-0.14-0.10
Chris Chambers20080.078-0.18-0.11
Preston Parker20140.0360.08-0.11
Harry Douglas20110.0160.25-0.12
Doug Gabriel20060.056-0.06-0.12
Cole Beasley20130.0370.07-0.12
Darrell Jackson20000.065-0.11-0.12
Tai Streets20030.082-0.21-0.12
Marques Colston20080.057-0.07-0.13
Brandon Marshall20070.0410.04-0.14
Miles Austin20140.0280.14-0.14
Nate Burleson20090.0290.13-0.15
Deion Branch20020.0290.13-0.15
Earl Bennett20090.0230.18-0.15
Dennis Northcutt20030.0220.19-0.15
Keenan McCardell200600.41-0.15
Jarius Wright201500.41-0.15
Roddy White20130.0310.11-0.15
Shawn Jefferson20010.0310.11-0.15
Marcus Robinson20000.049-0.02-0.15
Marquess Wilson20150.020.20-0.15
Brandon Jones20060.074-0.17-0.15
Dwayne Bowe20110.0350.08-0.16
Sidney Rice20110.0350.08-0.16
Michael Westbrook20010.0440.01-0.16
Ty Hilton20130.0360.07-0.17
Jerricho Cotchery20080.0450.00-0.17
Jimmy Smith20020.051-0.04-0.17
Arnaz Battle20050.056-0.07-0.17
Randy Moss20050.065-0.12-0.18
Antonio Bryant20020.065-0.12-0.18
Roy Williams20050.085-0.23-0.18
Early Doucet20110.052-0.05-0.18
Peter Warrick20030.057-0.08-0.19
Ricky Proehl20020.057-0.08-0.19
Denarius Moore20130.058-0.09-0.20
Robert Woods20140.048-0.02-0.20
Donald Hayes20000.0270.13-0.20
Harry Douglas20140.0270.13-0.20
Charles Johnson20000.07-0.16-0.20
DeAndre Hopkins20130.0220.18-0.21
Eric Parker200600.40-0.21
Ricky Proehl20030.077-0.20-0.21
Steve Breaston20110.020.19-0.21
Bernard Berrian20060.059-0.09-0.21
Antonio Bryant20050.0330.08-0.21
Greg Little20120.0430.01-0.21
Eddie Kennison20060.05-0.04-0.22
Donald Jones20120.06-0.10-0.23
Nate Washington20120.045-0.01-0.23
Donald Driver20070.0160.23-0.23
Derrick Mason20090.052-0.06-0.24
Marvin Jones20150.0390.03-0.24
Donte' Stallworth20040.047-0.02-0.25
Laveranues Coles20060.040.03-0.25
Brandon Lloyd20080.040.03-0.25
Matt Jones20060.053-0.06-0.25
Vincent Jackson20150.048-0.03-0.26
Donnie Avery20130.0280.12-0.26
Larry Fitzgerald20040.07-0.17-0.26
Steve Smith20120.0290.11-0.26
Derrick Mason20050.0220.17-0.26
Calvin Johnson20070.0420.01-0.26
Pierre Garcon20090.0430.00-0.27
Steve Smith20090.055-0.08-0.28
Miles Austin20120.05-0.05-0.28
Brandon Marshall20140.075-0.20-0.29
Jacoby Ford20100.0370.04-0.29
Steve Johnson20110.052-0.07-0.30
Jerry Rice20000.057-0.10-0.30
James Jones20100.057-0.10-0.30
Tim Dwight20000.057-0.10-0.30
Eric Moulds20060.0130.24-0.31
Marty Booker20000.0270.11-0.32
Johnnie Morton20010.0280.11-0.32
Danny Amendola20130.0240.14-0.32
Josh Reed20080.0120.25-0.32
Eric Moulds20000.030.09-0.32
Jason Avant201200.38-0.32
Ronald Curry20070.042-0.00-0.32
James Jones20140.054-0.08-0.32
Roy Williams20110.0320.07-0.33
Roydell Williams20070.043-0.01-0.33
Laveranues Coles20080.06-0.12-0.34
Ty Hilton20150.0370.03-0.35
Mark Clayton20080.0370.03-0.35
Robert Woods20150.0380.02-0.35
Kamar Aiken20150.0390.01-0.36
Reche Caldwell20060.0390.01-0.36
Torrey Smith20120.073-0.20-0.37
Davone Bess20080.0130.23-0.37
Terrell Owens20030.062-0.14-0.37
Keyshawn Johnson20000.066-0.16-0.37
Frank Sanders20010.0260.11-0.37
James Jones20070.0250.12-0.37
Andre Johnson20130.0280.10-0.37
Plaxico Burress20070.086-0.27-0.38
Mike Williams20100.086-0.27-0.38
Dennis Northcutt20040.0210.15-0.38
Sean Dawkins20000.049-0.06-0.38
Mike Wallace20120.067-0.17-0.39
Laveranues Coles20070.067-0.17-0.39
Keenan McCardell20020.059-0.12-0.39
James McKnight20010.0330.05-0.39
Santana Moss20080.043-0.02-0.39
Earl Bennett20100.043-0.02-0.39
Bill Schroeder20000.0340.05-0.39
Keyshawn Johnson20050.05-0.07-0.39
Andrew Hawkins20120.05-0.07-0.39
Cedrick Wilson20040.0350.04-0.39
Shaun McDonald20040.044-0.03-0.40
J.J. Stokes20010.078-0.23-0.40
Tai Streets20020.046-0.04-0.41
Bill Schroeder20020.065-0.16-0.41
James Jones20090.079-0.24-0.42
Marcus Robinson20060.069-0.19-0.42
Kendall Wright20130.0140.21-0.42
Sammy Watkins20140.047-0.05-0.42
Davone Bess20100.04-0.00-0.42
Michael Crabtree20150.062-0.15-0.43
Johnny Knox20090.062-0.15-0.43
Darrius Heyward-Bey20120.062-0.15-0.43
Laveranues Coles20090.066-0.17-0.43
Torry Holt20020.0250.11-0.43
Josh Morgan20100.0250.11-0.43
Hines Ward20010.0280.09-0.43
Greg Camarillo20080.0240.12-0.43
Andre Johnson20060.030.07-0.44
Doug Gabriel20050.042-0.02-0.44
Donte' Stallworth20050.054-0.10-0.44
Travis Taylor20060.0340.04-0.45
Mike Williams20120.071-0.20-0.45
Davone Bess20090.0180.17-0.45
Joey Galloway20020.05-0.08-0.45
Michael Crabtree20110.0350.03-0.45
Reggie Williams20060.044-0.04-0.45
Mike Brown20130.0360.02-0.46
Antonio Freeman20000.075-0.23-0.46
Roddy White20110.045-0.05-0.46
Jerome Pathon20030.0380.00-0.47
Eric Decker20110.085-0.28-0.47
Blair White20100.088-0.30-0.47
Hines Ward20070.062-0.16-0.48
Brian Finneran20050.0250.10-0.49
Derrick Mason20070.030.06-0.49
Julian Edelman20140.030.06-0.49
Jeremy Kerley20130.042-0.03-0.50
Malcom Floyd20150.043-0.04-0.50
Julian Edelman20090.0190.15-0.50
Nate Washington20100.064-0.18-0.51
Dorial Green-Beckham20150.06-0.15-0.51
Jarrett Boykin20130.0360.01-0.52
Darrell Jackson20040.045-0.06-0.52
Brandon Jones20080.0160.18-0.52
Travis Taylor20020.051-0.10-0.52
Jacoby Jones20100.038-0.01-0.53
Brandon Stokley20050.0150.19-0.53
Samie Parker20060.0150.19-0.53
Jerome Pathon20040.0150.19-0.53
Terrell Owens20090.046-0.06-0.53
Mike Walker20100.088-0.31-0.53
Demaryius Thomas20110.057-0.14-0.53
Emmanuel Sanders20120.0140.19-0.53
Brian Hartline20100.0140.19-0.53
Golden Tate20150.047-0.07-0.54
Michael Jenkins20070.047-0.07-0.54
Kevin Dyson20010.062-0.17-0.54
Rod Streater20120.041-0.03-0.55
Braylon Edwards20060.048-0.08-0.55
Josh Morgan20120.0270.07-0.55
Anquan Boldin20110.0280.07-0.55
Pierre Garcon20140.0290.06-0.55
Markus Wheaton20140.0230.11-0.55
Brian Hartline20130.030.05-0.55
Austin Pettis20130.063-0.18-0.56
Roddy White20090.067-0.20-0.56
Wayne Chrebet20010.0110.22-0.56
Shawn Jefferson20000.0190.14-0.56
Wayne Chrebet20040.0190.14-0.56
Demaryius Thomas20150.0340.02-0.56
Antwaan Randle El20030.0180.15-0.57
Jeff Graham20000.0350.01-0.57
Marty Booker20020.036-0.00-0.57
Deion Branch20110.056-0.14-0.58
Michael Crabtree20140.037-0.01-0.58
Antwaan Randle El20080.046-0.07-0.59
Marlon Brown20130.085-0.30-0.59
Golden Tate20110.052-0.12-0.59
Bernard Berrian20070.039-0.03-0.59
Rod Gardner20020.057-0.15-0.59
Isaac Bruce20070.04-0.03-0.60
Steve Smith20100.04-0.03-0.60
Curtis Conway20000.048-0.09-0.60
Rod Smith20030.0260.07-0.60
Pierre Garcon20130.0270.06-0.61
Nate Burleson20110.0270.06-0.61
Michael Crabtree20090.0230.10-0.61
Rishard Matthews20130.030.04-0.61
Greg Camarillo200900.33-0.61
Chris Chambers20090.054-0.13-0.61
Devin Hester20080.0330.01-0.62
Ben Obomanu20110.0330.01-0.62
Dez White20020.043-0.06-0.62
Larry Fitzgerald20140.0190.13-0.62
Keyshawn Johnson20020.035-0.00-0.63
Lee Evans20070.044-0.07-0.63
Darrell Jackson20020.036-0.01-0.63
Antonio Brown20110.0160.16-0.64
Jordy Nelson20080.037-0.02-0.64
Laveranues Coles20030.038-0.03-0.64
Harry Douglas20130.0150.17-0.64
Darnerien McCants20030.109-0.42-0.65
Todd Pinkston20020.062-0.19-0.66
Ernest Wilford20070.041-0.05-0.66
David Givens20040.0280.05-0.66
Isaac Bruce20050.042-0.06-0.67
Keenan Allen20140.0330.00-0.68
Bernard Berrian20090.043-0.07-0.68
Nate Burleson20030.035-0.01-0.68
Vincent Jackson20130.044-0.08-0.68
Reggie Brown20070.045-0.09-0.69
Jeff Graham20010.045-0.09-0.69
Michael Clayton20080.0160.15-0.69
Antonio Freeman20010.056-0.16-0.69
David Nelson20110.052-0.14-0.70
Travis Benjamin20150.04-0.05-0.71
Drew Carter20070.053-0.14-0.72
Tavon Austin20130.058-0.18-0.72
Anquan Boldin20060.0260.05-0.72
Donald Driver20030.0230.08-0.72
Troy Brown20020.0210.09-0.73
Brian Hartline20140.0320.00-0.73
John Brown20140.049-0.12-0.73
Mike Furrey20070.0110.19-0.73
Koren Robinson20030.034-0.01-0.74
Kendall Wright20150.05-0.13-0.74
Andre Roberts20120.044-0.09-0.74
Anquan Boldin20150.036-0.03-0.75
Ike Hilliard20060.036-0.03-0.75
Josh Morgan20090.037-0.04-0.75
Santonio Holmes20110.079-0.30-0.76
Donald Driver20060.047-0.11-0.77
Steve Smith20070.047-0.11-0.77
Donald Driver20100.047-0.11-0.77
Kelvin Benjamin20140.062-0.21-0.77
Chris Chambers20050.066-0.23-0.77
Steve Johnson20120.041-0.07-0.78
Kevin Dyson20020.058-0.19-0.78
Santana Moss20090.0250.05-0.78
DeSean Jackson20120.0230.07-0.78
Jason Avant20110.0120.17-0.78
Joe Jurevicius20010.033-0.02-0.79
Antonio Bryant20060.033-0.02-0.79
Devin Hester20100.055-0.17-0.80
Jabar Gaffney20100.0180.11-0.80
Roy Williams20090.081-0.32-0.80
Jabar Gaffney20030.035-0.03-0.80
Tiquan Underwood20120.036-0.04-0.80
Chaz Schilens20090.038-0.06-0.81
Terrell Owens20100.065-0.23-0.82
Devin Funchess20150.079-0.31-0.82
Taylor Gabriel20140.0140.14-0.82
Antonio Chatman20050.047-0.12-0.83
Deion Branch20060.04-0.07-0.83
Dane Looker20030.04-0.07-0.83
Jerry Porter20040.066-0.24-0.83
Torrey Smith20130.0290.01-0.84
David Patten20020.042-0.09-0.84
Jabar Gaffney20080.031-0.01-0.84
Brandon Lloyd20040.067-0.25-0.85
Terry Glenn20020.0190.09-0.85
James McKnight20000.0190.09-0.85
Jerome Pathon20000.034-0.03-0.85
Amani Toomer20010.035-0.04-0.86
Travis Taylor20050.044-0.11-0.86
Devery Henderson20100.0170.11-0.86
Eric Moulds20020.056-0.19-0.87
Aaron Dobson20130.056-0.19-0.87
Matt Jones20050.072-0.28-0.87
Lance Moore20070.04-0.08-0.89
Emmanuel Sanders20100.04-0.08-0.89
Allen Robinson20140.0250.03-0.89
Steve Smith20080.0120.15-0.90
Reggie Wayne20110.03-0.01-0.90
Hakeem Nicks201300.28-0.90
Emmanuel Sanders20130.054-0.18-0.90
David Givens20050.0210.06-0.90
Pierre Garcon20100.05-0.16-0.91
Davone Bess20110.035-0.05-0.91
Roy Williams20040.068-0.27-0.92
Willie Jackson20000.075-0.31-0.92
Chris Chambers20040.051-0.17-0.92
Brandon Lloyd20050.046-0.13-0.93
Tony Martin20010.039-0.09-0.94
Tavon Austin20150.057-0.21-0.94
Brian Hartline20120.0080.18-0.94
Lee Evans20100.048-0.15-0.95
Michael Jenkins20100.0270.00-0.95
David Anderson200900.27-0.96
Michael Jenkins20050.042-0.11-0.96
Hines Ward20110.032-0.04-0.96
Joey Galloway20060.049-0.16-0.96
Ike Hilliard20030.059-0.22-0.96
Brandon Marshall20080.033-0.05-0.96
Nate Washington20150.043-0.12-0.96
Darnay Scott20010.0190.07-0.97
Frank Sanders20020.034-0.05-0.97
Jason Hill20110.055-0.20-0.97
Amani Toomer20050.064-0.26-0.98
Vincent Jackson20070.038-0.09-0.99
Frank Sanders20000.052-0.19-0.99
Mario Manningham20110.052-0.19-0.99
Bobby Shaw20020.0140.11-1.00
David Patten20000.0140.11-1.00
Jerricho Cotchery20140.0130.12-1.00
Reggie Williams20080.048-0.16-1.01
Louis Murphy20100.0260.00-1.01
Koren Robinson20040.03-0.03-1.01
Brandon Lloyd20120.031-0.04-1.02
Jacoby Jones20110.031-0.04-1.02
Dwayne Bowe20130.049-0.17-1.02
Andre Holmes20130.0190.06-1.02
Andrew Hawkins20140.0180.07-1.03
Robert Woods20130.035-0.07-1.03
Marty Booker20050.035-0.07-1.03
Santonio Holmes20080.044-0.14-1.03
Devery Henderson20050.06-0.24-1.03
Steve Smith20130.036-0.08-1.04
Justin Hunter20140.045-0.15-1.04
Trevor Gaylor20020.056-0.22-1.04
Cordarrelle Patterson20130.052-0.20-1.05
Jeremy Maclin20120.057-0.23-1.05
Andre Holmes20140.04-0.11-1.06
Andre' Davis20020.083-0.38-1.07
Deion Branch20030.029-0.03-1.07
Brandon Gibson20100.0220.03-1.07
Byron Chamberlain200200.25-1.07
Bobby Engram200100.25-1.07
Plaxico Burress20050.042-0.13-1.07
Dwayne Bowe20140.0110.13-1.08
Braylon Edwards20090.043-0.14-1.08
Rod Smith20020.034-0.07-1.08
Mike Wallace20130.035-0.08-1.09
Wes Welker20060.010.14-1.09
Jimmy Smith20030.036-0.09-1.09
Louis Murphy20140.036-0.09-1.09
Deion Branch20080.068-0.30-1.09
Dwayne Bowe20080.045-0.16-1.10
Pierre Garcon20110.045-0.16-1.10
Randy Moss20020.038-0.11-1.10
Cris Carter20010.046-0.16-1.11
Greg Jennings20120.065-0.28-1.11
Donnie Avery20090.052-0.21-1.11
Kendall Wright20120.039-0.12-1.11
Antwaan Randle El20050.0140.09-1.11
Jerry Porter20070.058-0.25-1.12
Reggie Wayne20120.026-0.02-1.12
Ashley Lelie20030.025-0.01-1.13
Danny Amendola20120.03-0.05-1.13
Chris Chambers20020.03-0.05-1.13
Chris Chambers20070.031-0.06-1.13
Drew Bennett20060.031-0.06-1.13
Drew Bennett20020.031-0.06-1.13
David Nelson20130.033-0.08-1.14
Matt Jones20080.0190.04-1.14
Derek Hagan20070.034-0.08-1.14
Jacoby Jones20120.0180.05-1.14
Kevin Johnson20040.0160.07-1.15
Brandon Stokley20020.038-0.12-1.16
Denarius Moore20120.061-0.27-1.16
Peerless Price20060.039-0.13-1.17
Jermaine Kearse20140.0140.08-1.17
Bryant Johnson20080.04-0.13-1.17
Dwayne Bowe20120.027-0.04-1.18
Mohamed Massaquoi20100.027-0.04-1.18
Jarvis Landry20150.024-0.01-1.18
Chris Sanders200000.23-1.19
Eric Moulds20050.031-0.07-1.19
David Terrell20010.063-0.29-1.19
Jerry Porter20050.035-0.10-1.20
Brandon Stokley20080.035-0.10-1.20
Davone Bess20120.010.12-1.21
Justin Gage20050.036-0.11-1.21
Torry Holt20060.056-0.25-1.21
Wayne Chrebet20000.056-0.25-1.21
Marty Booker20030.038-0.13-1.22
Jerome Simpson20110.038-0.13-1.22
Randy Moss20100.079-0.38-1.22
Jason Avant20100.0140.07-1.23
Kenny Stills20150.048-0.20-1.24
Amani Toomer20070.029-0.06-1.24
Plaxico Burress20030.032-0.09-1.25
Mike Evans20150.020.01-1.25
Koren Robinson20080.034-0.10-1.26
Quinton Patton20150.0180.03-1.26
Jason Avant20080.035-0.11-1.26
Harry Douglas20120.0170.04-1.26
Justin Blackmon20120.038-0.14-1.28
Quincy Morgan20030.038-0.14-1.28
Roddy White20150.0140.06-1.28
Vincent Brown20130.0140.06-1.28
Jerry Rice20040.047-0.20-1.29
Arnaz Battle20070.048-0.21-1.30
Todd Pinkston20010.048-0.21-1.30
Santana Moss20070.026-0.05-1.30
Andre Roberts20130.026-0.05-1.30
Rueben Randle20140.024-0.03-1.30
Jacoby Jones20130.03-0.08-1.30
Nate Washington20090.063-0.31-1.31
Kevin Johnson20030.032-0.10-1.31
Cedrick Wilson20030.032-0.10-1.31
Lee Evans20090.074-0.37-1.31
Ashley Lelie20050.0110.09-1.31
Eric Moulds20040.033-0.11-1.31
Derrick Mason20060.0180.02-1.32
Brian Finneran20030.037-0.14-1.33
Plaxico Burress20080.061-0.30-1.34
Randall Cobb20150.047-0.21-1.35
Joey Galloway20030.024-0.04-1.36
Troy Edwards20040.0120.07-1.36
Steve Breaston20100.0120.07-1.36
Antwaan Randle El200900.20-1.36
Wes Welker200500.20-1.36
Damian Williams20110.054-0.26-1.36
Brandon Marshall20100.021-0.02-1.36
David Terrell20040.0110.08-1.37
Ike Hilliard20050.0190.00-1.37
Tim Brown20020.0160.03-1.39
Calvin Johnson20090.037-0.15-1.39
Isaac Byrd20010.0140.04-1.40
Rod Gardner20010.04-0.17-1.41
Robert Ferguson20050.053-0.26-1.41
Hakeem Nicks20140.058-0.30-1.41
Brian Hartline20150.026-0.07-1.41
Cecil Shorts20150.027-0.08-1.41
Torry Holt20080.025-0.06-1.41
Albert Connell20000.029-0.09-1.42
Cedrick Wilson200500.19-1.42
Keyshawn Johnson20060.031-0.11-1.42
Nate Burleson20050.019-0.01-1.43
Tai Streets20010.019-0.01-1.43
Jerome Pathon20020.05-0.25-1.43
Michael Jenkins20060.084-0.44-1.43
Kenny Britt20120.044-0.21-1.44
Roddy White20050.044-0.21-1.44
Amani Toomer20080.045-0.22-1.44
Drew Bennett20050.037-0.16-1.44
Laveranues Coles20050.038-0.17-1.45
Andre Caldwell20090.038-0.17-1.45
Cedrick Wilson20060.0140.03-1.46
Percy Harvin20140.0130.04-1.47
Plaxico Burress20110.083-0.45-1.47
Peerless Price20000.028-0.09-1.47
Michael Jenkins20120.028-0.09-1.47
Tim Brown20030.021-0.04-1.48
Travis Taylor20030.033-0.14-1.48
Dez White20040.036-0.16-1.50
Brian Hartline20110.0150.02-1.51
Dwayne Bowe20090.046-0.23-1.51
Antonio Bryant20090.047-0.24-1.52
Kenbrell Thompkins20130.058-0.32-1.53
Mohamed Sanu20130.026-0.09-1.53
Mike Wallace20150.028-0.10-1.53
Riley Cooper20140.032-0.14-1.54
Amani Toomer20030.033-0.15-1.54
J.J. Stokes20020.018-0.02-1.55
Roscoe Parrish20070.017-0.01-1.55
Andre Johnson20150.052-0.29-1.57
Johnnie Morton20000.026-0.10-1.59
Ernest Wilford20060.027-0.11-1.59
Doug Gabriel20040.025-0.09-1.59
Eddie Royal20100.029-0.12-1.59
Donnie Avery20080.029-0.12-1.59
Hakeem Nicks20120.03-0.13-1.59
Kevin Johnson20020.033-0.16-1.60
Darius Watts20040.019-0.04-1.60
Derrick Alexander20010.044-0.24-1.61
Jacquez Green20000.010.05-1.61
Reggie Wayne20140.017-0.02-1.61
DeSean Jackson20080.017-0.02-1.61
Jerry Rice20030.016-0.01-1.62
Eric Moulds20010.037-0.19-1.62
Rod Gardner20040.047-0.26-1.64
Lavelle Hawkins20110.0130.01-1.64
Shaun McDonald200500.15-1.65
Jarett Dillard20110.02-0.06-1.66
Keyshawn Johnson20010.0060.08-1.66
Quincy Morgan20040.044-0.25-1.67
Jacquez Green20010.017-0.03-1.67
Justin Gage20090.045-0.26-1.67
Deon Butler20100.057-0.34-1.69
Marvin Harrison20080.047-0.27-1.69
Mark Clayton20090.027-0.13-1.70
Santana Moss20110.042-0.24-1.71
Andre Johnson20140.021-0.08-1.71
Eddie Kennison20000.021-0.08-1.71
Brandon Lloyd20110.033-0.18-1.72
Jason Avant20140.016-0.03-1.73
Az-Zahir Hakim20020.037-0.21-1.73
Germane Crowell20000.041-0.24-1.76
Michael Jenkins20090.0110.01-1.77
Jerry Porter20030.018-0.06-1.78
Jerome Simpson20130.010.02-1.78
Ted Ginn20070.028-0.15-1.82
Sylvester Morris20000.029-0.16-1.82
Michael Floyd20120.023-0.11-1.82
Rashied Davis20080.03-0.17-1.82
Kevin Curtis20080.032-0.19-1.83
Travis Taylor20010.033-0.20-1.83
Vincent Jackson20140.014-0.04-1.86
Terance Mathis20000.04-0.25-1.87
Antwaan Randle El20060.048-0.31-1.88
Dennis Northcutt20050.026-0.15-1.88
Deion Branch20090.025-0.14-1.88
Eric Moulds200700.11-1.88
Mike Williams20100.018-0.08-1.89
Larry Fitzgerald20100.035-0.22-1.90
Logan Paulsen20130.06-0.39-1.90
Bryant Johnson20050.014-0.05-1.92
David Boston20020.013-0.04-1.93
Troy Brown20060.053-0.35-1.93
Andre Roberts20140.027-0.17-1.93
Dedric Ward20000.025-0.15-1.93
Josh Reed200700.10-1.94
Andre Roberts20110.02-0.11-1.94
Danario Alexander20110.033-0.22-1.95
Dennis Northcutt20090.016-0.07-1.96
James Thrash20020.056-0.38-1.96
Travis Taylor20000.056-0.38-1.96
Troy Williamson20050.038-0.26-1.97
Marvin Minnis20010.015-0.06-1.97
Harry Douglas20150.028-0.18-1.99
Matt Jones20070.08-0.52-1.99
Steve Johnson20130.03-0.20-2.00
Tim Dwight20020.022-0.13-2.00
Andre Caldwell20110.044-0.31-2.01
Santonio Holmes20130.017-0.09-2.02
Robert Ferguson20070.016-0.08-2.02
Joey Galloway20010.027-0.19-2.05
Danny Amendola20100.024-0.16-2.05
Cecil Shorts20130.024-0.16-2.05
Reggie Williams200500.08-2.05
Roddy White200600.08-2.05
Tim Dwight200100.08-2.05
Rod Gardner20030.043-0.31-2.06
Jake Reed20010.019-0.12-2.06
Terry Glenn20000.037-0.27-2.08
Quincy Morgan20010.028-0.20-2.11
Mike Williams20110.024-0.17-2.11
Antonio Bryant20030.024-0.17-2.11
Brandon Gibson20140.02-0.14-2.12
Keenan McCardell20040.017-0.11-2.13
Marqise Lee20140.015-0.09-2.14
Charles Rogers20030.058-0.43-2.16
Jason Avant20130.026-0.20-2.16
Santana Moss20130.025-0.19-2.17
Donnie Avery20120.024-0.18-2.17
Chansi Stuckey201000.06-2.17
Peerless Price20030.021-0.16-2.17
Rod Smith20060.032-0.25-2.17
Curtis Conway20030.02-0.15-2.18
James Thrash20030.011-0.06-2.18
Dane Sanzenbacher20110.056-0.42-2.20
Brandon Gibson20110.014-0.10-2.21
Koren Robinson20010.013-0.09-2.22
Kevin Johnson200000.05-2.23
Keary Colbert20050.036-0.29-2.25
Robert Ferguson20020.058-0.45-2.28
Todd Pinkston20030.023-0.19-2.28
Jabar Gaffney20050.022-0.18-2.28
Ron Dugans200200.04-2.29
Torrance Small20000.032-0.27-2.29
Josh Reed20030.019-0.16-2.29
Chris Givens20150.019-0.16-2.29
Andre Johnson20050.018-0.15-2.30
Greg Little20110.017-0.14-2.30
Sammie Stroughter20090.017-0.14-2.30
Rashied Davis20060.036-0.30-2.31
Herman Moore20000.038-0.32-2.32
Cordarrelle Patterson20140.015-0.12-2.32
Eric Moulds20030.008-0.06-2.33
Ted Ginn20090.013-0.11-2.33
Bobby Engram200800.03-2.34
Terrence Wilkins200100.03-2.34
Michael Clayton200500.03-2.34
Drew Bennett20070.042-0.35-2.34
Randy Moss20060.031-0.27-2.34
Justin McCareins20050.02-0.18-2.35
Mike Williams20050.018-0.16-2.36
Devin Hester20110.018-0.16-2.36
Anquan Boldin20040.01-0.08-2.36
Danny Amendola20090.016-0.14-2.37
Shaun McDonald20080.015-0.13-2.37
Marcus Robinson20020.057-0.46-2.38
Curtis Conway20040.04-0.34-2.39
Brandon LaFell20100.013-0.12-2.39
Mark Clayton20050.023-0.21-2.40
Scottie Vines200500.02-2.40
Laurent Robinson20070.013-0.13-2.45
Brandon LaFell201500.01-2.46
Greg Jennings20060.029-0.28-2.51
Jabar Gaffney20020.012-0.13-2.51
Amani Toomer200400.00-2.52
Eddie Royal20150.02-0.21-2.52
T.J. Graham20130.034-0.32-2.53
T.J. Graham20120.017-0.18-2.54
Stephen Hill20130.017-0.18-2.54
Clarence Moore20040.069-0.56-2.55
Ricky Proehl20040-0.01-2.57
Chansi Stuckey20090.031-0.31-2.58
Ashley Lelie20060.015-0.17-2.61
Terance Mathis20010.019-0.22-2.64
Bryant Johnson20090.034-0.34-2.64
Johnnie Morton20020.016-0.19-2.66
Dez White20030.028-0.30-2.69
Kris Durham20130.024-0.27-2.69
Jerricho Cotchery20100.023-0.26-2.69
Braylon Edwards20080.022-0.25-2.69
Torry Holt20090-0.03-2.69
Troy Williamson20060-0.03-2.69
Mohamed Massaquoi20090.032-0.34-2.69
Javon Walker20020.02-0.24-2.70
Ace Sanders20130.011-0.15-2.70
Laveranues Coles20040.006-0.10-2.70
Marty Booker20040.01-0.14-2.71
Joe Horn20050.01-0.14-2.71
Legedu Naanee20110.013-0.18-2.74
Mohamed Massaquoi20110.027-0.31-2.74
Steve Smith20100.02-0.25-2.75
Donald Hayes20010.019-0.24-2.76
Michael Clayton20060.016-0.21-2.77
Austin Collie20110.01-0.16-2.82
Jeff Webb20070.017-0.23-2.82
Roy Williams20080.025-0.31-2.86
Reggie Williams20040.019-0.26-2.87
Tai Streets20040.018-0.25-2.88
Bryant Johnson20040.01-0.17-2.88
Brandon Gibson20090.014-0.22-2.90
Peerless Price20040.028-0.34-2.92
Bryant Johnson20070.023-0.30-2.92
Dez White20010-0.07-2.92
Dez Bryant20150.042-0.45-2.92
Joe Horn20070.019-0.27-2.93
Darrius Heyward-Bey20100.015-0.23-2.95
Jeremy Kerley20140.013-0.22-2.97
Larry Fitzgerald20120.026-0.34-2.97
Bryant Johnson20030.013-0.24-3.08
Davone Bess20130.023-0.33-3.09
Tim Carter20030-0.10-3.09
Louis Murphy20090.042-0.48-3.09
Willie Jackson20020.019-0.30-3.10
Marty Booker20070.01-0.21-3.11
Darrell Jackson20070.029-0.39-3.15
Mark Clayton20070-0.11-3.15
Derrius Thompson20030-0.11-3.15
Harry Douglas20100.019-0.31-3.16
Scotty Anderson20020.018-0.30-3.17
Az-Zahir Hakim20030.037-0.46-3.18
Laurent Robinson20100.027-0.39-3.20
Dennis Northcutt20000-0.12-3.21
Bill Schroeder20030.025-0.38-3.26
Peter Warrick20010.007-0.21-3.26
Javon Walker20070-0.13-3.27
Tony Martin20000-0.13-3.27
Craig Yeast20000-0.13-3.27
Ike Hilliard20040-0.14-3.32
Chris Givens20130-0.15-3.38
Jerome Simpson20120-0.15-3.38
Peter Warrick20000.032-0.46-3.39
Greg Lewis20050.01-0.26-3.40
Cecil Shorts20140.009-0.25-3.41
Travis Taylor20040-0.16-3.44
Justin McCareins20080-0.16-3.44
Brandon Lloyd20060-0.16-3.44
Jon Baldwin20110.019-0.38-3.57
Darrius Heyward-Bey20130.016-0.35-3.58
David Terrell20030.012-0.32-3.61
Bernard Berrian20100-0.19-3.61
Greg Little20130.02-0.41-3.68
Randal Williams20060-0.21-3.73
Keary Colbert20070-0.22-3.79
Mike Thomas20110.011-0.34-3.80
Early Doucet20100.017-0.40-3.81
Louis Murphy20120.016-0.39-3.81
Devin Aromashodu20110.012-0.37-3.90
Macey Brooks20000-0.25-3.96
Chris Chambers20060.026-0.53-4.07
Eddie Royal20090-0.28-4.13
David Patten20050-0.29-4.19
Alvis Whitted20060-0.30-4.25
Early Doucet20120-0.38-4.71
Plaxico Burress20000-0.44-5.06

## Individual Efficiency

Before we jump into players that might regress positively or negatively, I wanted to see if any specific players might defy regression to the mean in these stats. Maybe certain players are always efficient, or certain QBs allow for higher WR efficiency.

First, let’s start with an example. Steve Smith has 15 years in the data set, with 11 of those meeting the 50 target threshold. If we drop the threshold to 40 targets, that gives us 13 representative seasons for Smith. We can plot a distribution of Smith’s SumZ scores over those 13 years, and visually see he’s had a wide range of efficiency, with mean close to zero.

But maybe he started out poorly and improved with time. Or maybe he got worse with age. We can plot the year on the x-axis against SumZ on the y-axis and see, no, Smith really didn’t trend upward or downward. It’s just random noise.3

Smith is no exception to the rule. To look at this, I took all players with at least five years in the NFL and created a table with each player’s mean SumZ along with the 95 percent confidence interval of the mean, and min and max SumZ values.

LevelNMeanSTDEVLower.CI.95Upper.CI.95MinMax
Jordy Nelson61.861.81-0.033.75-0.644.75
Doug Baldwin51.611.46-0.213.430.293.58
Julio Jones51.370.500.741.9912.21
Devery Henderson51.292.37-1.654.23-1.034.22
Marques Colston101.081.020.351.81-0.133.41
DeSean Jackson71.021.74-0.592.63-1.613.08
Malcom Floyd61.021.37-0.422.45-0.53.31
Marvin Harrison80.881.15-0.091.84-1.692.24
Mike Wallace70.832.09-1.112.76-1.533.99
Lance Moore60.800.96-0.211.81-0.891.75
Antonio Brown50.801.13-0.602.20-0.642.02
Brandon Stokley60.761.98-1.322.84-1.23.19
Greg Jennings90.761.79-0.622.13-2.513.39
Demaryius Thomas50.731.41-1.022.48-0.562.3
A.J. Green50.720.61-0.031.480.151.72
Golden Tate50.711.31-0.912.34-0.592.53
Jeremy Maclin60.710.92-0.251.68-1.051.49
Eric Decker50.680.84-0.361.72-0.471.6
Dez Bryant60.641.99-1.452.73-2.922.61
Terrell Owens110.621.06-0.091.33-0.822.08
Derrick Mason110.621.29-0.251.49-1.322.45
Donte' Stallworth60.590.79-0.241.42-0.441.61
Torrey Smith50.581.15-0.852.02-0.841.96
Miles Austin50.581.02-0.681.85-0.282.28
James Jones80.571.46-0.651.79-0.423.88
Kenny Britt50.561.40-1.182.29-1.442.48
Joe Jurevicius50.531.16-0.911.98-0.792.05
Reggie Wayne130.521.22-0.221.26-1.612.14
Calvin Johnson90.510.99-0.251.26-1.392.25
Isaac Bruce90.471.05-0.331.28-0.672.29
Hines Ward120.460.80-0.050.96-0.961.67
Kevin Walter60.430.360.050.81-0.090.76
Percy Harvin50.391.12-1.001.77-1.471.42
Randy Moss120.381.54-0.601.36-2.343.26
Eddie Kennison70.381.16-0.691.45-1.711.79
Donald Driver100.360.96-0.321.04-0.771.82
Vincent Jackson90.341.46-0.791.46-1.862.84
Torry Holt100.321.74-0.921.57-2.692.56
Santana Moss120.311.65-0.741.35-2.172.62
Lee Evans70.261.41-1.041.57-1.312.73
Bobby Engram70.171.48-1.191.54-2.341.92
Steve Smith130.161.33-0.550.86-2.752.57
Andre Johnson130.151.40-0.700.99-2.32.43
Anquan Boldin130.131.07-0.520.78-2.361.66
Emmanuel Sanders50.081.30-1.531.70-0.92.14
Joe Horn80.081.97-1.571.73-2.932.75
Wes Welker100.060.83-0.530.66-1.361.23
Jimmy Smith60.030.66-0.660.72-1.090.94
Santonio Holmes70.031.63-1.481.54-2.023.16
Kevin Curtis50.031.07-1.311.36-1.830.78
Keenan McCardell70.021.14-1.031.07-2.131.47
Nate Burleson8-0.011.00-0.850.83-1.431.95
Steve Johnson6-0.011.32-1.391.38-21.8
Terry Glenn5-0.021.49-1.861.83-2.081.45
Troy Brown6-0.021.11-1.181.14-1.930.82
Hakeem Nicks6-0.021.54-1.641.59-1.592.32
Ricky Proehl5-0.041.81-2.292.22-2.572.53
Larry Fitzgerald12-0.041.26-0.840.77-2.971.36
Brandon Marshall9-0.050.74-0.620.52-1.361.05
Joey Galloway7-0.081.57-1.531.38-2.052.42
Nate Washington10-0.090.68-0.580.39-1.310.84
Michael Crabtree6-0.100.81-0.950.75-0.611.51
Jerricho Cotchery8-0.101.25-1.140.94-2.691.39
Darrell Jackson8-0.141.39-1.301.03-3.151.17
Rod Smith7-0.151.19-1.250.95-2.171.24
Deion Branch10-0.231.08-1.000.55-1.881.57
Brandon LaFell6-0.241.85-2.191.70-2.462.28
Roddy White11-0.261.00-0.930.41-2.050.85
Az-Zahir Hakim6-0.281.83-2.201.64-3.181.51
Pierre Garcon7-0.290.87-1.090.52-1.11.52
Javon Walker5-0.292.51-3.412.83-3.271.94
Marcus Robinson6-0.301.10-1.450.86-2.380.64
Jerry Rice5-0.301.28-1.891.29-1.621.61
Braylon Edwards6-0.381.37-1.821.06-2.690.87
Antwaan Randle El8-0.381.16-1.350.58-1.881.59
Ashley Lelie5-0.441.82-2.691.82-2.611.78
Jerry Porter5-0.441.81-2.681.80-1.782.73
Antonio Bryant7-0.491.11-1.520.54-2.111.28
Laveranues Coles9-0.501.10-1.340.35-2.71.1
Roy Williams8-0.511.08-1.410.39-2.860.44
Dwayne Bowe8-0.521.01-1.370.32-1.511.4
Keyshawn Johnson7-0.550.79-1.280.18-1.660.61
Ike Hilliard8-0.551.46-1.770.67-3.321.66
Johnnie Morton5-0.561.67-2.631.51-2.661.73
Michael Jenkins8-0.571.20-1.580.43-1.771.28
Amani Toomer9-0.581.40-1.660.49-2.521.74
Plaxico Burress10-0.612.04-2.070.85-5.062.8
Devin Hester5-0.611.12-2.000.78-2.360.48
Ted Ginn5-0.611.36-2.301.08-2.330.6
Jabar Gaffney9-0.611.21-1.540.32-2.511.12
Drew Bennett6-0.681.36-2.110.75-2.341.08
Bernard Berrian5-0.691.88-3.031.65-3.611.64
Eddie Royal6-0.712.45-3.281.86-4.132.29
Curtis Conway5-0.731.54-2.641.17-2.391.02
Josh Reed5-0.761.28-2.350.83-2.290.48
Reggie Williams5-0.772.06-3.331.79-2.872.52
Brian Hartline7-0.780.58-1.32-0.24-1.510.2
David Patten6-0.801.79-2.681.09-4.190.59
Chris Chambers9-0.811.46-1.930.31-4.071.39
Jason Avant7-0.831.25-1.990.33-2.161.66
Dennis Northcutt7-0.911.46-2.260.44-3.210.61
Koren Robinson5-0.990.91-2.120.14-2.220.3
Kevin Johnson5-0.991.37-2.690.72-2.231.36
Marty Booker8-1.021.34-2.130.10-3.110.89
Brandon Lloyd7-1.031.35-2.280.22-3.440.98
Davone Bess6-1.081.04-2.170.02-3.09-0.37
Danny Amendola5-1.151.08-2.480.19-2.370.13
Peerless Price6-1.181.33-2.570.21-2.920.63
Harry Douglas6-1.231.18-2.470.01-3.16-0.12
Eric Moulds8-1.230.72-1.83-0.63-2.33-0.31
Mike Williams5-1.440.95-2.62-0.26-2.36-0.38
Brandon Gibson5-1.441.56-3.380.49-2.91.09
Mark Clayton5-1.451.44-3.240.34-3.150.35
Travis Taylor7-1.511.05-2.47-0.54-3.44-0.45
Bryant Johnson7-1.941.48-3.31-0.56-3.081.06

We see that only three players have a 95 percent confidence interval that lies completely above zero (Julio JonesMarques Colston, and Kevin Walter). Add to that Doug Baldwin and A.J. Green who have never had a negative efficiency year, and it’s clear few WRs avoid negative regression to the mean. The same holds for the other direction.

Since the sample size is 120 players large, and only nine of the 120 players completely lie outside of the 95 percent confidence interval (we would expect six by random chance alone) we can say that is likely random chance, so it’s likely the case that players that seem to outperform expectations every year is simply a random subset.

That said, the sample sizes are probably too small say all players simply revert to a mean SumZ value of zero. Anecdotally, if you look at the table, it certainly seems most of the better players have a slightly positive value and the worse players a negative value. But there certainly are exceptions like Brandon Marshall. In addition, all the mean SumZ values lie within the range -2 to 2, so certainly players outside of that range are prime regression candidates.

## WR Regression Candidates

### Negative Regression

Looking at the first table in this article, looking solely at 2015, we see the top three players are Doug BaldwinTyler Lockett, and Sammy Watkins. Baldwin and Lockett were the main beneficiaries from Russell Wilson‘s insane second half numbers. It’s been shown before that second half numbers aren’t as useful as full year numbers, so surely expect some efficiency regression for these two. As for Watkins, his 16.7 air yards per target was tops among receivers over 50 targets last year, which puts him in the high variance category. Expect regression here as well.

### Positive Regression

The top three by SumZ from 2015 are Davante AdamsDez Bryant, and Eddie Royal. At least for Adams and Dez there are signs that positive regression should almost certainly happen. Will the return of Jordy Nelson help the whole Packers offense be more efficient? Will a healthy ankle help him as well? It seems likely at least one, if not both of these things should help. As for Dez, a full season of health, plus a full season of a healthy Tony Romo should help pull him up. Royal should expect positive regression just because of the nature of the statistic, but it’s harder to find a specific reason as to why he was so inefficient last year.

1. I’ll show how further down.  (back)
2. We can also call this reFPOEPT where the “T” is for target instead of attempt. The screener app uses “A” however.  (back)
3. We can test this with a simple linear regression, which gives an R-squared value of only 0.05 and a p-value of 0.65.  (back)

#### RotoDoc

Co-Owner and Editor-in-Chief at RotoViz. Mathematics Ph.D. 3x qualifier for the DraftKings NASCAR Main Event.

### Gander RV Duel 1 NASCAR DFS Driver-by-Driver Breakdown

Now that we’ve talked strategy for the Duel races, let’s dive right into a driver-by-driver…...

### Gander RV Duels NASCAR DFS Stats, Facts, and Strategy

The twin qualifying races for the Daytona 500 take place Thursday night, and with the…...

### NASCAR DFS Driver-By-Driver Breakdown for The Clash

Qualifying was set by a random draw, and Paul Menard will start on the pole for…...