Welcome back to the DFS Contrarian series. We’re going to briefly recap my Week 2 picks, then move onto my GPP plays for Week 3. Just a reminder of the rules I’ll be using for this column:
- I will give at least one pick for QB, RB, WR, and TE.
- I can also include non-skill positions (K, D/ST) when I believe they will be a good contrarian play.
- I will use scoring from last year’s Play of the Week contest. It goes like this: When I take the average score of all DraftKings Millionaire Maker lineups that include my pick, if he ends up in the top 25 percent when doing this for all players that were at least 0.01 percent owned (this eliminates players that should never have been in a lineup in the first place, and dummy lineups), then my pick counts as a hit. Otherwise it counts as a miss.
- A pick is also scored as a miss if it is above 10 percent owned. We’re really trying to be contrarian here.
- The goal is to have above a 20 percent hit ratio at the end of the year.
Let’s get to the recap of last week, then the picks.
WEEK 2 RECAP
Week 2 was a bit of a tough week for me. Blake Bortles struggled, but opposite him Philip Rivers was a hit with a four TD game.
From there, everything went south. I missed on Duke Johnson, Allen Robinson, Vincent Jackson, and Gary Barnidge.
But you can’t win every week.
Overall Record: 3-11 (21.4 percent)
Time to regroup and move on to Week 3.
WEEK 3 DFS CONTRARIAN PICKS
It might seem odd that Andrew Luck is a contrarian play, but I expect a lot of people will be paying down at QB this week, either for Ryan Tannehill, Philip Rivers, or Marcus Mariota. That leaves Luck as a nice play in a game that could become a shootout against San Diego. The Chargers defense has improved compared to last year, but all I expect from that is it makes the game closer than it would have been last year with a healthy Luck. I just think Luck has a better than 10 percent chance of putting up a massive game in this one, and he should be less than 10 percent owned.
I think paying up at RB will be contrarian this week, given the carnage that happened in Week 2 at the position. There will be a lot of value plays, so paying up could be a bit different. In that case, I like Todd Gurley as a nice contrarian play. Gurley puts up his best fantasy days in close games, and I think this game between the Bucs and Rams will come down to the wire. The Bucs rush D also isn’t very good. They allowed Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman to combine for 157 yards, then let David Johnson rack up 143 yards before ceding most of the late game workload to Chris Johnson (who put up 54 yards) in a blowout win for the Cardinals. I think Gurley punches in 1-2 touchdowns and gains over 100 total yards.
Another contrarian RB pick I like is Rashad Jennings. Jennings hasn’t done much this year, so he will be low owned. Especially with everyone paying down at RB. But the Redskins have allowed DeAngelo Williams to romp all over them, then allowed Ezekiel Elliott to gain 83 yards on 21 carries with a touchdown. Former ‘Skin Alfred Morris also found the end zone. Jennings should get a score and put up 75+ yards, with the potential for even more.
Jeremy Maclin is a solid volume play against the aging Darrelle Revis. Revis allowed A.J. Green to put up a monster day, then surrendered a couple scores against the lowly Bills receiving corps.
It pains me to say this. So much. But Sterling Shepard is a fantastic play against a Redskins defense that is awful against slot WRs. The biggest mystery here is whether the introduction of Kendall Fuller as the slot CB helps the Redskins or not.
Earlier this week I wrote about Michael Floyd as a a bounce-back candidate. The Bills just surrendered 374 passing yards to Ryan Fitzpatrick and people will be all over Larry Fitzgerald who has had a hot start to the year. But Floyd sees over 90 percent of the snaps in this offense and is the clear No. 2 WR on this team. The GLSP App gives him an 18+ point ceiling1 which is more than enough at his price tag.
I think the best bets at TE this week are also chalky plays (Jordan Reed, Delanie Walker, and Dennis Pitta) so let’s drop down to minimum salary Jack Doyle for the Colts. I love TEs with a high implied team total, and the Colts fit the bill with a 27 point projected total this week. Doyle has seen nine targets, which is one off of teammate Dwayne Allen‘s 10 targets. But Doyle has been more efficient, and should be even lower owned than Allen. I think Allen also makes for a good GPP play, so stack Luck with either of these TEs for a big day.
Bonus: This won’t count for scoring because it’s not part of the Milly Maker slate, but go look at what I wrote about Coby Fleener earlier this week. Since it’s the Monday night game, his ownership could be inflated a tiny bit (why else would you play the Monday slate if you didn’t want to play players from that game), but it certainly won’t approach 10 percent and Fleener is in a superb spot this week.
Bear with me. I think the San Francisco 49ers D/ST is an interesting GPP play this week. Sure they go on the road at Seattle. But the Dolphins D/ST did the same in Week 1 and put up double-digit fantasy points against Seattle. The following week the Rams D/ST put up double digit fantasy points against Russell Wilson and Co. Meanwhile, the 49ers put up double digit points against the Rams and seven points against the Cam Newton-led Panthers despite surrendering 46 points to the Panthers. Add it all up, throw in a Wilson bum ankle, and a Seahawks offense that has scored only 15 points so far this year, and you have the makings of a nice contrarian GPP play. The pace also helps, because that creates more opportunities for turnovers, sacks, and defensive or return TDs.
- If we take the last 14 games, which removes the two games he was affected by a hand injury last year. (back)